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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

 
 
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Old 08-29-2016, 09:40 PM   #1
kpmats10
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Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 26
Question on Paceline Selection - DMR0828 R2

General question on paceline and race analysis. I'm not an RDSS user and I have attached the PP's (note the fractions displayed are the horse fraction times, not the actual race times) and a printout from a homemade pace program I have built.

I admit I did not have the winner in this race, but thought this was a good example to get some feedback on regarding paceline and contender selection.

TPR's are adjusted for today's distance, if adjustment was necessary.

Horse 1 - Two Six Wins - Horse earned a + effort with second in similar condition in last. 3rd off the layoff today. He's a contender based on just missing at this level last time out.

Paceline selection - Wasn't sure where to go on this one. The last race was a change in tactics as this horse was coming from off the pace in a sprint, all the other sprint lines in the PP's show this horse as an E or EP horse. Based on that, I ued the line on 3Sep15DMR as it was over this strip and that I rated as a (+) race based on the horse showing up close for the first two calls before fading to a loss by 6 lengths.

TPR Ratings - Last Race, 93-86/179, paceline selected 93-78/171

Horse 2 - Nueces - Throw out last line based on bumping at the start, rated this one an E and used the line 2 back, a win sprinting.

TPR - Last Race 88-59/147, paceline selected 84-90/174

Horse 3 - Lambo Luxx - Horse taking a significant drop in class from AOC company into 16k claimers. I'm suspicious that this horse hasn't run much since it's last plus + October of last year for $40k. I'll give it a break and use the 25Oct15 race based on the drop in class and put it in the contender mix.

TPR - Last race 98-86/184 (but I think my data has the times and BL wrong, thus the PP's are incorrect and this TPR is most likely very inaccurate), selected paceline 94-88/182

Horse 4 - NF - Never on the board in a dirt race

Horse 6 - Look Twice - Last line was a win, fastest and best line in last, this is the fulcrum horse.

TPR 94-85/179

Horse 7 - Stormin Trick - Nothing on this horse's PP's stuck out at me to warrant using coming off a 0 race 14 days ago and an uninspiring (+) race 2 back. I tossed this horse for contention.

So based on the fulcrum, I figure the EP time for this race will be 45 1/5

I've recently been experimenting with finding the fulcrum horse and trying to accurately gauge what the pace call time of the race will be. I did 4 races on Sunday, and correctly guessed the actual EP time of all 4 four races and had the winner on various tickets in 3 of the 4. Except for this one.

Here's where I'm second guessing myself a bit. As I mentioned earlier, I have my default PP settings to show the horse's fraction, not the actual race fraction. I'm wondering if I did not correctly guestimate a horse's true ability. Since I know today's pace call will be about 45 1/5, should I be looking for horses who have + races in races where the pace call was 45 1/5 or where the horse itself ran at or close to 45 1/5? I based my picks in this particular race on horses who ran to the call time of 45 1/5, not necessarily horses who were from off the pace of the same time.

I selected the 6 horse as my top pick based on the fact that Del Mar has been favoring outside posts and winners are typically coming from 0-2 lengths off the pace, and the 3 as my second choice off the 98-86/184 TPR figure, which was better than the fulcrum horse in today's race and I initially viewed the horse as dropping in class to a more competitive level. I admit in hindsight, I should've read more deeply into this runner as a negative class dropper.

What about the 1 horse? In a situation like this, do you write the last line off because of a different run style that appears nowhere in the PP's or is last race truly indicative of current form and ability and should this horse now be considered as a P or S runner? Which would mostly disqualify this horse for contention as P and S runners are at an extreme disadvantage sprinting at Del Mar.

Thanks for reading and for the feedback.
Attached Images
File Type: pdf DMR Aug 28, 2016R2.pdf (66.3 KB, 1321 views)
File Type: pdf DMR0828R2.pdf (6.0 KB, 1215 views)
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