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Old 03-30-2011, 02:53 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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GP Friday Marathon 1-1/2 on Turf

Friday's 8th race at the 2nd allowance level draws a group from the 2/26 race, the 2, 3, 4, some low priced claimers and some from graded races.

I am posting this race for general interest but also to hopefully get a question answered about part of The Hat's prescribed method of analysis. specifically, as I understand it, Jim said that for pacelines longer than a mile to reduce the final time by 6.4 (tenths) of a second per half furlong to get an adjusted mile time. This is fine for races like 8.5 furlongs or any race for which either the form or the charts do not already show what the mile split was for the race.

I am taking the last race for the 7 horse to explain my dilemma. It is for a 9 furlong race where the horse went virtually wire to wire in these fractions:

24.25-49.2-112.6-137.6-149.6 (I looked up chart to get the 24.25)

Using The Hat's instructions I would extract a mile time of 149.6-6.4-6.4 and get 136.8. HOWEVER, the horse actually race the mile part of the race in 137.6. Which to Use? I would hope that there might be some confirmation of the faster time in the PPs and in line 3, after adjustment we can calculate an approximate mile time of 135.75 (141.6-6.4+2.75/5).

On balance I am encouraged that the horse race the last 8th of a mile in 12 seconds (faster than the 6.4 sec half furlong adjustment) and that bodes well for being able to run a little farther (my opinion only). No one else in this race looks to have run close to the lead when the six furlong time was in the 112 range.

Anyone (Richie or other) who understands what the Hat was intending please help clarify whether the extraction adjustment was meant to determine the projected "ability" of the horse at a mile (using the 6.4 adjustment) especially when the race time is slower than the adjusted time. When the adjustment goes the other way (projects a slower time than actually run, I would take the slower time)

This race's entrants:

1. S almost always from back of pack; line 2 converts to 136.3 closing from 8th to 6th against 112.6

2. S almost the same as the 1, converts to 136.4 closing 9th to 5th at stretch call. Middle horse of tandem. Race 5 from Bel shows that this one ran (not converted) a 136.7 but was not passing anyone.

3. P who closed from 5th to 3rd is most likely to first challenge the leader in a pace that equals the set up for this race. Line 1 converts to 135.8. FPLR in this race.

4. S ran 2.5 lengths back of the 3 in last race; converts to 136.5

5. P 138.6 OUT

6. Off since December; best is 138.5 OUT

7. E and I notice that last race was at "About" 9 furlongs which might contribute to the apparent fast closing speed especially if the about distance was a little shorter than 9 furlongs (It always did at Bay Meadows when they ran that about distance - made them look too fast)

8. Slower presser 140.0 best.

The closest to the pace making up ground and passing horses, and also with the best mile time is the 3 Sporty who is also the best of the 3 horse tandem mentioned early. I think he will run down the 7. Lots of horses can finish 2nd here, but if pressed I would say the 5 a many time grade 2 and grade 3 participant might like the class of this field much better than recent foes. The 8 has two tandems with the 5 in graded races and seems to gain ground when the pace is a lot slower than what could be run today.


Good luck

Bill

Please add your thougts on the adjustment vs running time issue that I addressed at the beginning if you have some insight.

Thx
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File Type: pdf GP 3.31-8-2.pdf (308.4 KB, 1220 views)
File Type: pdf GP 3.31-8-3.pdf (305.7 KB, 1451 views)
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Old 03-31-2011, 08:29 AM   #2
Bill V.
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sandwish

Hi Bill. Not sure if the race is thurs or friday. I really avoid these races I just don't get them. The only thing I can see beside a race made just for the fact that they want to have a long race the race looks like. Maybe the 7 will go fast like a 112 and that might be enough to mess up the eight. My readouts say the 3 4 6 ,and 8 but too many issues
For me. Used to call these get a sandwich races
Good Skill to you
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Old 03-31-2011, 08:59 AM   #3
mikesal57
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Bill...

Bad race to bet ..I cant see much after the 2 m/l favorites 5 & 8

most of these horses are limited winners and never faced much
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Old 03-31-2011, 09:08 AM   #4
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Morning Bill's!

The race runs TODAY

Speaking on the way Hat did these race types with me:

He NEVER changed a race lines timing where the mile time was shown. NEVER

Here are the pps for Bill L's race with tandem finishes shown
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Old 03-31-2011, 09:09 AM   #5
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Old 03-31-2011, 09:11 AM   #6
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Old 03-31-2011, 02:18 PM   #7
Bill Lyster
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Bill and Richie:

Thanks, yes the race is todays.

The 1 and 7 have scratched as you might have already seen, so the pace of the race is likely to slow down quite a bit. I will give race another look and post again if my ideas change.


Bill: these types of races really are ones where the computer will really mess you up. The Hat's method reduced these races to practically one dimension, that being the closest to the pace at the mile time considering the positions of the runners. Any horse making up positions and/or lengths at today's pace will be competitive.

I have tried to support my Hat type calculations with readouts and for the most part (other than throwing darts at the picks on the readouts) it doesn't work. It is also bad for your screen should a dart actually hit the screen.

Learn this neat method and maybe a few very nice doubles or pick threes may fatten your wallet.

Bill
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Old 03-31-2011, 02:27 PM   #8
Bill Lyster
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Note: Missing info - tandem data missing

Richie: the pps you posted do not show the last race at 1-7/16th miles from 2/26. The mile time for that race was 137.4 with the 10 furlong time being 201.0.

The 2, 3 and 4 are all tandems from that race, run in a pretty good time.
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Old 03-31-2011, 03:01 PM   #9
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Thanks for laying this out Bill. I usually run from these races as I have not been successful at implementing Hat's method.

Based on what you put out there, it looks like the 3 is the pick. The only other horses I looked at that might show better mile times/positioning are the 4 and the 8.

The 4 has that Saratoga line having the lead at the mile in 135.3 (tenths). However, as you pointed out, the 3 beat him in the last race tandem.

The 8 has a very fast mile way down in the PP's at Woodbine, winning the race in 133 and change. This horse is 5/2 morning line, but more recent efforts make it hard for me to go back to that line.

Thanks again...curious to see how it turns out..
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Old 03-31-2011, 03:16 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Richie: the pps you posted do not show the last race at 1-7/16th miles from 2/26. The mile time for that race was 137.4 with the 10 furlong time being 201.0.

The 2, 3 and 4 are all tandems from that race, run in a pretty good time.
Hi Bill
You are 100% right and that is not good man.

To be honest I am NOT good at all with this spot play (nor the lone early one) so I leave them be.

You laid this race out really well, best of luck/ skill with it!
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