Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-28-2018, 01:32 PM   #1
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Abigail Adams Handicap

This is the first handicap race I have come across since Ted added the weight
on the entry screen for the upcoming updates on RDSS

This is a restricted 25,000 stakes race for 3+ horses bred in Mass who have never won $50,000

The 3 high weights are 2 # 5 and #8

Here are my notes
Abigail Adams Handicap ST 25000 Mass breds


Name:  Capture.PNG
Views: 459
Size:  66.5 KB


Horse 1 Colins Go Go
Today is not the day to try to win first-time. 0-26 maiden

Horse 2 Angry Patty
She has been off 339 days She ran well after a 274-day layoff but the percentages are poor to win after a year off.

Horse 3 Greta
She shows early speed but not much else

Horse 4 Indian Legacy E7
Great early speed just another day in this form cycle
I will rate him from line 1 it's a (+)

Horse 5 Jeb
Returns to FL from Suf. last three races were against Stake 50's
I will excuse line 1 and 2 and use the + races line 3 against better than she will face today one of the high weights.

Horse 6 Cheer For Grace
Still a maiden and only as 1 + paceline in ten races

Horse 7 Dr. Ruthless
Keeps trying against in stakes level races but just can't run a plus race as a sprinter

Horse 8 Tropical Joy
Solid stakes level horse, Has 8 + plus races against 35000 claimers and
5 stakes races in a row, Both lines 1 and 2 are + races Line 1 is on a sloppy track
Line 2 is a route, 2nd highest weight

Horse 9 Chasing Blue
Has been trying stakes company but can't seem to run a plus race against sprinters, Been off 92 days.


Here are my readouts

Name:  Abigail BLBL.PNG
Views: 457
Size:  49.9 KB


Name:  Abigail RX+.PNG
Views: 466
Size:  46.3 KB

and while I had Thoromation out and working

Name:  Thoro.PNG
Views: 437
Size:  9.6 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2018, 01:56 PM   #2
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
Now that's what I call a creative Racing Sec. Cards a stake race for Mass breds at a N.Y. track.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2018, 05:42 PM   #3
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Replay

That worked out really well
Two of the top 3 high weights make the exacta. I bet $24 on the 5 and $9 on the 8
Not exactly how I wanted to dutch the race but I have trouble sometimes entering numbers. I get dizzy and mixed up. I am practicing by entering lines in old dos programs.

Anyway, It was a very good day

I thank you with all my heart for looking in.

Bless you

Bill

Name:  #5.JPG
Views: 444
Size:  42.4 KB

Name:  Go on take the money and run.JPG
Views: 437
Size:  51.7 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2018, 05:48 PM   #4
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Relay

Here are the fractions and positions from the replay

The winner #5 sits 4th at the first call

Name:  First fraction 4235.JPG
Views: 437
Size:  34.0 KB

The winner #5 Make a big move on the turn and takes over first

Name:  #5Jeb TT.JPG
Views: 443
Size:  34.2 KB

The 5 opens up in the stretch, meanwhile, the 8 moves up to second
The race is in the bag as my two win bets are 1-2

Name:  Jeb in the strerch The 8 takes over 2nd.JPG
Views: 420
Size:  25.5 KB

The 5 wins and 8 places

Name:  Finish is 5 8.JPG
Views: 417
Size:  27.3 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-30-2018, 11:44 AM   #5
tom
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 644
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Now that's what I call a creative Racing Sec. Cards a stake race for Mass breds at a N.Y. track.
Tim
Two of them this week.
FL has had a lot of SUF shippers over the years, so I guess it is to give these guys a shot at some races with the reduced racing in MASS. Clever sec.
tom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-30-2018, 12:33 PM   #6
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
They card some unusual race up there especially toward the end of the meet. He does a pretty good job with what he has to work with.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-31-2018, 12:01 AM   #7
Dorianmode
always learning
 
Dorianmode's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
Unhappy Finger Lakes #9 8/28/18 6F DS

So ... you did such a nice job with the analysis, (congrats on the win, BTW !!), I thought I'd run it through my dirt sprint profile and see what popped out. Since I didn't play it, I had to be honest and say that I could only forgive one of the two races for the 5. If I had played it, the second speed rating was within it's "normal" range, so I left it in.

So here's what some of my final screens looked like ... I won't explain them all, just a general comment.

My RDSS screens looked very similar.

The first shot below is my own set of stats I run on the speed ratings, somewhat similar to NewPace ... but without and early-late bias ... (that gets put in elsewhere).

The second screen is a set of numbers that are weighted from exacta, trifecta and perfecta profiles. To be honest I should look at these more, ... but these worked nicely so I add them here.

The last one is the last screen that's weighted from all kinds of junk I threw together, weighted and summed. Since it happened to include the perfecta in 4, I show it. I should have played this race !
Attached Images
   

Last edited by Dorianmode; 08-31-2018 at 12:12 AM.
Dorianmode is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
FourstarDave Grade 1 Handicap - KGEN DEMO Bill V. Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion 15 08-12-2018 12:25 PM
Oaklawn Handicap and Count Fleet Handicap Bill V. Selections 6 04-15-2018 10:55 AM
Day 23 DMR Feature race Race 7 THE GREEN FLASH Handicap Bill V. Selections 11 08-19-2017 01:29 PM
Met Mile & HANDICAP races For The Lead Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 21 12-22-2013 07:12 AM
Parx race 9 Donald LeVine Memorial Handicap Bill V. Races of Interest 2 06-23-2013 06:41 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:19 AM.