Hollywood Bills - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 11-21-2009, 01:29 PM

One of the reasons for my post was to perhaps identify races NOT TO PLAY and to identify races where the best BL horses should not be loved to death.

I looked back at the BC turf sprint. There were only three horses in the top seven that had lines on that hillside course and other tracks' flat turf sprints. The winner California Flag was kind of a freak with recent bests of 89-90 adjusted SR for SA and flat respectively. The other two, the 4th place finisher (#14) had respective numbers of 84-91 and the 7th place finisher had numbers of 83-89.

Here are the SA 6.5t bests and flat bests for top 7 finishers (none= did not race on that surface)
1-89-90
2-85-none
3-none-87
4-84-91
5-none-87
6-none-89
7-83-89

Note that three out of the top four had raced on this specific course previously. Historically I have made it a personal rule to handicap these races only when the contenders have previously raced on this course OR had very closely attended very fast route races (where 6f time was 110 and change or so)

Also note that where you can compare efforts from like surfaces that the grouping from flat sprints matches up pretty well with the final results of this $1,000,000 race.

Good luck today.

Bill Lyster · 11-21-2009, 01:33 PM

One other thing that the comparison of flat race times, above, does is to allow us to handicap horses off similar surfaces when the surface from today's race has not been run on by all the horses. In the above, you could have determined top contenders from flat grass races and then given preference to those that had raced on SA's hillside turf course previously

BL

SilentRun · 11-22-2009, 11:43 AM

Hello Mr. Bill V,

I enjoyed reading your analysis for your pacelines. However I noticed
that you use the 'original' rather than the 'adjusted' lines. I always thought
that the adjusted lines are more accurate. So I guess my question is,
Have you experienced better results with the original lines over the adjusted
lines or have you always used the original lines ?

Ernie

Bill V. · 11-22-2009, 12:36 PM

Hello Ernie

I prefer the adjusted .... BUT It depends on the program
and when I post screen shot I thought it would be better to post the original
for the non RDSS users to follow along

I send my lines to KGEN and I have to use the 1 or 2 adjust
from that program so If I use the adjusted lines from
RDSS am I adjusting adjusted lines ??
when i use RDSS alone I use the adjusted lines

anyway what ever your records say is best thats what you should use

Bill

11-21-2009, 01:29 PM	#11
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Last thoughts One of the reasons for my post was to perhaps identify races NOT TO PLAY and to identify races where the best BL horses should not be loved to death. I looked back at the BC turf sprint. There were only three horses in the top seven that had lines on that hillside course and other tracks' flat turf sprints. The winner California Flag was kind of a freak with recent bests of 89-90 adjusted SR for SA and flat respectively. The other two, the 4th place finisher (#14) had respective numbers of 84-91 and the 7th place finisher had numbers of 83-89. Here are the SA 6.5t bests and flat bests for top 7 finishers (none= did not race on that surface) 1-89-90 2-85-none 3-none-87 4-84-91 5-none-87 6-none-89 7-83-89 Note that three out of the top four had raced on this specific course previously. Historically I have made it a personal rule to handicap these races only when the contenders have previously raced on this course OR had very closely attended very fast route races (where 6f time was 110 and change or so) Also note that where you can compare efforts from like surfaces that the grouping from flat sprints matches up pretty well with the final results of this $1,000,000 race. Good luck today.

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11-21-2009, 01:33 PM	#12
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	One other thing that the comparison of flat race times, above, does is to allow us to handicap horses off similar surfaces when the surface from today's race has not been run on by all the horses. In the above, you could have determined top contenders from flat grass races and then given preference to those that had raced on SA's hillside turf course previously BL

11-22-2009, 11:43 AM	#13
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Hello Mr. Bill V, I enjoyed reading your analysis for your pacelines. However I noticed that you use the 'original' rather than the 'adjusted' lines. I always thought that the adjusted lines are more accurate. So I guess my question is, Have you experienced better results with the original lines over the adjusted lines or have you always used the original lines ? Ernie

11-22-2009, 12:36 PM	#14
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Adjusted Hello Ernie I prefer the adjusted .... BUT It depends on the program and when I post screen shot I thought it would be better to post the original for the non RDSS users to follow along I send my lines to KGEN and I have to use the 1 or 2 adjust from that program so If I use the adjusted lines from RDSS am I adjusting adjusted lines ?? when i use RDSS alone I use the adjusted lines anyway what ever your records say is best thats what you should use Bill