Some Thoughts for 2019 - Pace and Cap

rdiam · 01-02-2019, 04:49 PM

Some Thoughts for 2019:

Memorize this formula: EV = (Odds +1) x (Probability of Winning), if your bet or group bet does not create an EV greater than 1.0, you won't win

Those who complain how hard it is to estimate the probability of winning do not realize that we are playing a gambling game of decision making under uncertainty, and those who dominate the betting pools are spending the time and effort to make these estimates

In Sports Betting, Suckers/Squares bet teams, while Sharps/Pros bet numbers

Similarly, in Horse Betting, Suckers/Squares bet horses, while Sharps/Pros bet Odds

Never bet a horse to win going off at less than even money: there are few, if any, horses that have a greater than 50% chance of winning any race

Never spend more than 7 minutes on your race and bet analysis: the breakdown should be no more than 2 minutes for race analysis (contenders, pace lines, analysis of favorites) and no more than 5 minutes to construct a wager. If you are using a computer program, Trust The Machine. Remember, those who dominate the betting pools are trusting their machine and probably using an algo to make the bets.

If you end up looking to bet a horse to win whose odds are 7/2 or lower, make sure you can toss at least one horse to win whose win odds are 3-1 or lower to give you a chance at +EV

If your method selects win contenders, your minimum win odds requirement is your number of contenders -- that is, if you have 3 win contenders your minimum win odds to make a win bet is 3-1, etc.

If your method does not separate win contenders, you minimum win odds requirement is the number of horses in the race divided by 2 -- that is, 8 horses then minimum win odds is 4-1, etc.

Some of this may seem harsh, but I guarantee that if you do not adhere to these betting principles you will not win. The rest is up to you.

Richard

mick · 01-02-2019, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdiam

If you end up looking to bet a horse to win whose odds are 7/2 or lower, make sure you can toss at least one horse to win whose win odds are 3-1 or lower to give you a chance at +EV
Richard

I like all of this post, but my favorite line is quoted above. By itself, it improved my ROI. Having spent a lot of time with Richard at Keeneland, I no longer play races in which I can't toss at least one low-odds favorite.

My race analysis takes a little longer than 2 minutes (his brain has another gear) but I understand his point. The focus should be on the wager.

Mitch44 · 01-02-2019, 07:20 PM

I believe in tailoring the bet based on your analysis. Personally I believe more time should be placed on analysis and then tailor the bet to capitalize on that analysis.

But if the above is working for you then go for it.

Mitch44

AbqVic · 01-06-2019, 04:22 PM

Nothing constructive to add, except I really like this thread. Estimate the probabilities as best you can, then hold out for the reward that compensates for the risk. In my beginners opinion, that’s the whole game.

Swifty0x0 · 01-08-2019, 02:56 AM

Let me see if I understand the formula.

If my group bet (2 horses) has a combined chance to win of 50% then the average odds of those 2 horses only has to be better than EVEN money?

1.0 = (1 + 1) x 0.5

AbqVic · 01-09-2019, 07:00 AM

Swiftly,

I don't know how to write the correct equation for you, but yours doesn't include, and compensate for, the 50% of the time when both your horses lose.

Swifty0x0 · 01-09-2019, 07:09 AM

I believe it does include that. That is, if the combined chance of 2 horses to win is 50% it inherently says their combined chance to lose is the remainder (which is also 50% in this case).

Any win percentage always implies the opposite loss percentage.

01-02-2019, 04:49 PM	#1
rdiam Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 606	Some Thoughts for 2019 Some Thoughts for 2019: Memorize this formula: EV = (Odds +1) x (Probability of Winning), if your bet or group bet does not create an EV greater than 1.0, you won't win Those who complain how hard it is to estimate the probability of winning do not realize that we are playing a gambling game of decision making under uncertainty, and those who dominate the betting pools are spending the time and effort to make these estimates In Sports Betting, Suckers/Squares bet teams, while Sharps/Pros bet numbers Similarly, in Horse Betting, Suckers/Squares bet horses, while Sharps/Pros bet Odds Never bet a horse to win going off at less than even money: there are few, if any, horses that have a greater than 50% chance of winning any race Never spend more than 7 minutes on your race and bet analysis: the breakdown should be no more than 2 minutes for race analysis (contenders, pace lines, analysis of favorites) and no more than 5 minutes to construct a wager. If you are using a computer program, Trust The Machine. Remember, those who dominate the betting pools are trusting their machine and probably using an algo to make the bets. If you end up looking to bet a horse to win whose odds are 7/2 or lower, make sure you can toss at least one horse to win whose win odds are 3-1 or lower to give you a chance at +EV If your method selects win contenders, your minimum win odds requirement is your number of contenders -- that is, if you have 3 win contenders your minimum win odds to make a win bet is 3-1, etc. If your method does not separate win contenders, you minimum win odds requirement is the number of horses in the race divided by 2 -- that is, 8 horses then minimum win odds is 4-1, etc. Some of this may seem harsh, but I guarantee that if you do not adhere to these betting principles you will not win. The rest is up to you. Richard

01-06-2019, 04:22 PM	#4
AbqVic stretch run Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: Los Lunas, NM Posts: 28	Nothing constructive to add, except I really like this thread. Estimate the probabilities as best you can, then hold out for the reward that compensates for the risk. In my beginners opinion, that’s the whole game. __________________ Vic "The race may not always be to the swift, nor the victory to the strong, but that's how you bet." - Damon Runyon "I don't like money actually, but it quiets my nerves." - Joe Louis

01-09-2019, 07:00 AM	#6
AbqVic stretch run Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: Los Lunas, NM Posts: 28	Swiftly, I don't know how to write the correct equation for you, but yours doesn't include, and compensate for, the 50% of the time when both your horses lose. __________________ Vic "The race may not always be to the swift, nor the victory to the strong, but that's how you bet." - Damon Runyon "I don't like money actually, but it quiets my nerves." - Joe Louis

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01-02-2019, 07:20 PM	#3
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	I believe in tailoring the bet based on your analysis. Personally I believe more time should be placed on analysis and then tailor the bet to capitalize on that analysis. But if the above is working for you then go for it. Mitch44

01-08-2019, 02:56 AM	#5
Swifty0x0 Grade 3 Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 50	Let me see if I understand the formula. If my group bet (2 horses) has a combined chance to win of 50% then the average odds of those 2 horses only has to be better than EVEN money? 1.0 = (1 + 1) x 0.5

01-09-2019, 07:09 AM	#7
Swifty0x0 Grade 3 Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 50	I believe it does include that. That is, if the combined chance of 2 horses to win is 50% it inherently says their combined chance to lose is the remainder (which is also 50% in this case). Any win percentage always implies the opposite loss percentage.