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Old 12-24-2008, 12:32 PM   #1
Tim Y
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The three year old

It is often lost in the shuffle, that Equus callibus is not fully mature until it's REAL 5th birthday (not the January 1st one) when the female and male counterparts then lose the designation of filly/colt respectively, to be then called mare and horse. Like their human counterparts, there is a lessening of growth during the last part of the "immaturity to maturity" phase usually, but not limited to, the last epiphyseal growth plates closing: (in humans that is usually between 22 and 25).

I once read a great article written by the patriarch of Caliborne Farm (Bull Hancock) on his choice of stallions. I am paraphrasing here since I no longer have that article, but he said he would not consider a horse for stallion duty unless "he got 10 furlongs as a three year old." Intrinsic to his evaluation was the idea that stamina is connected to maturity, whereas speed is there, or it isn't.

Many in the industry are lamenting a solid fact: stamina is disappearing from the NA bred thoroughbred running on dirt. There are many reasons for this but it has a lot to do with the racing calendar being overloaded with HUGE two year old contests and the breeding industry being complicit in grinding out quickly maturing, quickly "money returning" babies. (Dr. Steven Roman in his studies of dosage notes that the more brilliantly oriented a breeding is, the quicker that speed is expressed, and LAMENTABLY maxes out the potential).

So speed is either an "on or off" proposition. More and more babies are bred wih overloaded brilliance for quick maturation since the racing calendar awards that fact with contests for a quick return on the breeders/owners financial return on investment. Fewer marathon races are being offerend on the racing calendar so that reputable breeders are offered fewer opportunities to FIND graded performers at stamina distances which them might be able to trasnfer that ability to their offspring.

So the industry, and the "lay" press, goes nuts for the rapidly maturing, over-hyped, brillance based two year olds and promote then to an arena (the stamina requiring contests we call the Triple Crown) where they (the majority of them) have little inherent ability to do well.

Many of the child prodiges of the two year old ranks, MAX out long before the Triple Crown and WE can tell who they are by segmental velocities shifting earlier as the distances increase. Many a very good one, that would theoretically "get 10 furlongs at three" don't make it until the late Summer when their maturity catches up to the norm. The noted failure of Holy Bull (DI 5.00 CD 1.11) Chief's Crown (DI 3.8 CD 0.71) Snow Chief (DI 5.00 CD 0.67) or Forty Niner (who just missed with a DI 2.64 and CD 0.78) did not get the 10 furlongs of the Derby, but three of these "caught up" to win the Travers in August.

One can never tell just which ones will mature at what rate nor how any ONE colt will evolve but with the overloaded speed pedigrees, fewer will "get 10 furlongs" that first Saturday in May. The industry is setting up a large number of these colts for failure by the way these new groups of "babies" are evaluated as they mature into whatever stamina potential they might reach.

The ones who mature to be able to "get those 10 furlongs" (at Derby weight too) in May of their three year old season will TELL YOU by the way their energy distributions change on the way to that date. While it might be fun to guess which will make that transition early, without hard data it is impossible to know with any degree of certainty unless you find those "forces of nature" that, as two year olds, show us they can win races at the more mature level (Afleet Alex certainly qualified as did Street Sense)
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