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Breeders' Cup 2016 Friday & Saturday Nov 4/5 - Santa Anita

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Old 11-03-2016, 08:09 PM   #1
Tim Y
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watch out about the new turf course

Anita turf was resurfaced.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ses-first-test

QUOTE: The finishing times and fractions were noticeably very fast in comparison to recent turf races in the region, but the jockeys didn't find fault with that aspect. Fritz Johansen, who won a mile claiming race under Desormeaux, covered the distance in 1:33.66. Three races down the hillside—including two heats for the Eddie D. Stakes (gr. IIIT) all ran in 1:11 and change for about 6 1/2 furlongs.

"It's like a carpet right now," said Kent Desormeaux

The front end improves with no "give", and this one looks more now like the putting green sidewalk at Del Mar than the traditional turf course. Short stretch adds to the effect that speed balls have on those surfaces.

Just watched a "wire job" with a co-favorite 7th SA Thursday.

See if the deep movers can gain traction enough to make big moves...May not be able to..
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Old 11-04-2016, 10:15 AM   #2
Bill V.
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Weird

Its odd because the RDSS Early Late numbers and the QSP numbers
still show OTE energy.

Here are some figures from my records or this 2016 SA fall meeting on the new turf
At the 1 Mile (Non Maiden) distance I have 19 races
at 6.5 down the hill I have 23 races


For the 1 mile distance races
Here are the Early / Late ratings for the comparable best of last three pace lines, which I used when choosing my lines

Name:  Mile Turf.JPG
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Now here are the RDSS visual running styles of the winners of the 19 races

Name:  Running styles.JPG
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Lastly The QSP or Qurinn speed points
The top 3 highest QSP Numbers 8,7, and 6 are not producing many winners

Horses with QSP 1 mile distance
8 QSP 2 - No Winners
7 QSP 25 - 1 Winner
6 QSP 22 - 5 winners

49 horses with either a 6 7 or 8 QSP and 6 winners


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For The 6.5 down the hill course


The Early Late numbers are hard to track because so many runners have no
comparable 6.5 hill pace lines , Very often horses are making there fiirst tries down the hill

The QSP numbers also show the top 3 rating 8.7. and 6 do not do very well
On The hill 6.5 distance

QSP 8 11 Runners 1 winner
QSP 7 10 Runners 1 winner
QSP 6 9 Runners 2 winners

Good Skill
Bill V
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Old 11-04-2016, 12:10 PM   #3
Mark
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What?

Hey, don't we handicap from past performances? Surface speed is just that! If the surface is fast it takes less energy to get over. If it is slow, more! No different than going track to track. Don't make this more complicated than it has to be. Just handicap normally and let the program tell you what horses have demonstrated superior ability. The bias is determined by the horses in the race the vast majority of the time, as Jim Bradshaw indicated.
Look at recent turf races at IND and GFW. The times they are running are so slow you will be shocked. The 2nd calls are 2 to 3 seconds slower than you would expect from the pacelines used. But the winners run as they should!
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Old 11-04-2016, 12:51 PM   #4
Bill V.
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good

Good point Mark

The trainers know what it takes to win these races .
We can tell from record keeping what type of energy the winners need.
They also get information , maybe different info than RDSS but still ,
Once we can determine the energy requirements We can match that to the past performance line we evaluates
It makes things so much easier if we can eliminate horses
and only focus on true contenders

Good Skill
Bill
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Old 11-04-2016, 04:38 PM   #5
Mark
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I don't think so...

What you suggest is that the energy requirements of some set of races will dictate what the energy requirements will be needed in today's race with this group of horses. That is just like using Pars and that doesn't work for sure.

You have to determine what kind of pace the leader or leaders will set. Sure if today's race sets up like one of your sample races, you could win the race. However, if it is that easy to find the winner, I imagine they are bet down severely. What you really want is a race that sets up differently and that the winner will run counter-energy. You have to wait for them and chances are if their ratings are outside your acceptable range you probably threw him out anyway! Just handicap the race and see what the numbers tell you. Will there be contention for the lead or might you have a hidden early that will take them gate to wire and pay boxcars.

Anyway, I sincerely hope that this stuff works for you and you can narrow the range of acceptable % Med or whatever you use, otherwise there is little elimination value. I derive my satisfaction and reward from being able to get the numbers to support how I visualize the race running. If you evaluate each horse hopefully you can get a feeling of his quality, courage, emerging form and speed and pace capabilities. Can you find a line that represents that effort?
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Old 11-04-2016, 05:31 PM   #6
Bill V.
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% Med

Hey Mark

Here is what I have for the 6.5 Hill Turf as far as E/L and Med Energy
- again often in these races its hard to use a comparable pace line,
but these i'm showing in my chart are races were I used a comparable pace line.

Name:  Mark %E.JPG
Views: 196
Size:  87.1 KB

Of course there are a couple of outsiders

9/30 race 6 @ 66.3
10/16 race 6 @ 66.2
and on the high end
10/9 race 4 @ 68.7

But the target area looks like 67.5 to 68
which is not too early
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Old 11-04-2016, 06:27 PM   #7
Bill V.
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Med Energy 1 Mile

At the mile distance - 8 furlongs SA current Fall 2016 meet (non maiden)
The E/L and Med energy from the winners comparable pace line

Name:  Mark Mile 2.JPG
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Old 11-05-2016, 12:43 PM   #8
So Cal Al
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Just a suggestion! Go easy, or pass (if you can), the 6 1/2 turf races at the Breeders Cup today. IMO they are a handicapping nightmare
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Old 11-05-2016, 03:00 PM   #9
Bill V.
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so true

Quote:
Originally Posted by So Cal Al View Post
Just a suggestion! Go easy, or pass (if you can), the 6 1/2 turf races at the Breeders Cup today. IMO they are a handicapping nightmare

Hello Al

This is one reason I have gone to Doubles Pick 3's, Pick 4 and Pick 5 betting
The All button , or just about all spreads in these hill races.

Good skill
Bill
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Old 11-05-2016, 03:02 PM   #10
Bill V.
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Day 1 The model still says OTE Energy

4 races - Friday 11/4/16


Name:  Day 1.JPG
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