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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 04-04-2018, 11:46 PM   #1
Mr.Pagine
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Toyota Blue Grass

P & C Family,

The Blue Grass is a FANTASTIC betting race.
This race will be wide open.

Let's sharpen our pencils and make some $$.

More to follow.

Happy Punting

Jon
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Old 04-05-2018, 02:17 AM   #2
lone speed
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PPs for Blue Grass Stakes at 9 furlongs

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Old 04-05-2018, 02:18 AM   #3
lone speed
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Old 04-05-2018, 08:28 AM   #4
Mitch44
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Blue Grass Preview

My quick observations take me very much longer to type which I don’t often do as I’m a pecker.

1. Very consistent SR & as distance increases, probably not fast enough at this distance. but will love going longer, may love 1 ¼ or Belmont 1 ½.

2. On the improve with last best, appears too fast early, trainer capable of getting it to rate.

3. Unknown factor, last best with the first B on, top?

4. Great speed and can rate, probably needed last, expect improvement.Bad start in last probably cost several lengths. Shouldn’t be ML 10-1.

5. Has won over the track (Kee). Last best & progressing, 3 of 4 wins. Has already won more than most horses do in a lifetime, top?

6. 2nd race back not running its style and a throwout. Has won at distance. Last race was best despite running positions. On improve, may need longer. Has lost 3 of 4.

7. Improving 3 yr. old. Last best with blinkers on. May have needed blinkers on in previous dirt starts.
Dirt works are excellent. Can handle the switch to the dirt.

8. Last best and improving as 3-year-olds should be. Has lost 3 in a row therefore probably not a Grade 1 horse.

9. Lost 3 in a row & probably not a Grade 1. May need longer, no excuse in last.

10. After a troubled start, the jock rushed up and took it out of his running style Today gets a much better jock. Expect improvement.

11. Did he peak as a 2-year-old in BC? Can he run back to that race or have others already caught up with him?
BC may have been too much. Regardless M/L of 2-1 isn’t worth the risk of unknown form & ability as 3 year old.
Today is a tough race with many improving horses & unknown factors No. at those odds, not worth risk and will just have to beat me at those odds.

12. Has won 5 of 8 on four different types of tracks. Troubled twice in last. Rated in last two so should improve off last.

13. Has great speed and rated in last, showing a new dimension.
An unknown factor. Could be anything. While rated was too far back to be effective but did rate.

14. Unknown factor. Last best and today adds blinkers. Note: only one race on a fast track. Could be anything.

Typical 3 yr. race at this time of year with several unknown factors. Not a prime betting race and not a race to take a short price.

Best of luck. Some scratches before post time may help.

Mitch44

Last edited by Bill V.; 04-05-2018 at 02:40 PM.
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Old 04-05-2018, 08:58 AM   #5
Mitch44
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Sorry about the above post. I did it in word then copied and pasted it. For some reason when pasting it messes it up with different size prints, running words together ,size of printing etc. It is what it is, enjoy.


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Old 04-05-2018, 02:43 PM   #6
Bill V.
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Hi Mitch

That is a nice report on the Bluegrass

I will look at the race too.

Saturday is the Santa Anita Derby. Its sad for me because I have been to the last 4 of them. sitting in the infield.
I can't get there this year so a nice winner would be nice.

Bill
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Old 04-05-2018, 07:46 PM   #7
Mr.Pagine
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Hello Mitch

Nice work Mitch.
Quip is out - #5

Appreciate your thoughts.

Jon
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Old 04-05-2018, 08:02 PM   #8
Mitch44
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Your welcome Jon.
Mitch
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Old 04-06-2018, 12:46 PM   #9
Mitch44
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Bill V.;


I din not look at the SA derby, only has two real contenders in it so I'll just watch it for future reference. The area out there isn't getting a lot of shippers out there so a couple horses dominate the 3 yr. olds.


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Old 04-06-2018, 02:40 PM   #10
Mitch44
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My final contenders and order are:


12-10-4-2-11 Tough race save the house.


Note: UNKNOWN FACTORS # 3 30-1 & # 7 15-1. These could surprise at a huge prize or get in the money to destroy the gimmicks. Worth a $ 2 wager each at those odds.


Best of luck,
Mitch44
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