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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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05-02-2018, 03:46 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Most likely that was the case but since then with training just about everyday he'll be much fitter so I don't see it as a problem. In this race one never knowns what they'll do. As an example none have ever seen a crowd that will be there for the derby to include the in field and the noise they make. Could it have an effect? Maybe?
Hopefully their mind is on running at that time. These trainers have been running a few that do this on the inside of horses in their training to force them to stay straight. Particularly Pletcher. Magnum Moon is another that does this, also trained by Pletcher. That forces them to maintain a straight course. It may just be immaturity also. In the race the jock will be aware of this and if they can, will try to take a route inside for their stretch run if it won't cost them ground to get it, that'll let other horses force it in to maintain a straight course. All I can say is that they all are running under the same exact conditions and we can't worry about what we don't know or may happen. The conditions are equal to all. Hopefully the horses we bet that day have the temperament to handle everything thrown their way. Wishing good luck tleusin, Mitch44 |
05-02-2018, 05:14 PM | #12 |
Happy Punting
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 481
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Incredible Job - Thank You Mitch44
Nice write-up, and I know this Derby, will be one for the ages.
I do not look at Mendelssohn as a European, as his sire is Scat Daddy, and the majority of his family are all from North America. You did a great job in covering Mendelssohn in your write up - much appreciated. Happy Punting! Jon |
05-04-2018, 04:15 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: the great race place
Posts: 205
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Do you believe?
RDSS USERS:
Are you buying the adjusted SR of 95 for Vino rosso from the wood memorial? Inquiring minds want to know thank you, Paul link |
05-04-2018, 04:28 PM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Paul,
I am going to see how My Miss Lily runs in the Oaks. She ran on the -17 variant at AQU, the same as Vino Rosso and that line makes her very sustained and 2nd on TPR to the 14. I will adjust my KD analysis accordingly after the Oaks. Personally, I like Midnight Bisou and Rayya, who has been on or near the lead in all of her recent starts and finished 2nd to Mendelsohn. And it was not the only time she ran vs. males. She has only run vs females in 2 of her 5 races. |
05-04-2018, 04:31 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Yes I am Paul
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
05-04-2018, 04:40 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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sureshotlink:
I think it pretty accurate. The TPR for Bris & RDSS is a difference of 4 lengths. That could be many things, he did go 4 wide so that could account for some of that 4 diff. Mitch44 |
05-04-2018, 04:42 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Thanks Jon.
Mitch44 |
05-04-2018, 04:57 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: the great race place
Posts: 205
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Much appreciate the feedback colleagues.
Good idea bill.L Blessings, Paul |
05-04-2018, 06:49 PM | #19 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Quote:
Vino Rosso ran 4 routes 77 w/+9 variant; 93 w/-17 variant; 80 w/ -4 variant; and 95 w/-17 variant. he had no apparent excuse in the Tam race 80/(-4) race so are we on an upward trend 77-80 or 93-95 with high negative variants. I think tomorrows race will run fast early and Vino won't be able to keep up. I think he could improve upon the 77-80 to mid 80s. The filly's races went from 80-88, a 10% apparent improvement. VR's races show a 18.75% improvement from 80 to 95. I am going to say no tomorrow. Last edited by Bill Lyster; 05-04-2018 at 06:58 PM. |
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05-04-2018, 08:38 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 168
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Hi all
Can anyone tell me where I can find the OAKS/DERBY double payoffs? Thanks folks! PapaJohn |
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