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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 05-06-2018, 10:21 AM   #1
Mitch44
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Ky Derby summary.

Never had a good feeling in this because of too many contenders. While Justify won he didn't overwhelm this field winning by 2.5 lengths nor did he justify his SR & TPR, which to me seemed too good to be true. Even RDSS didn't like that last line. It comes down to different variants and while you know they seem incorrect the amount to adjust just can't be accurately done. Hofburg was sided twice for a rough trip but still finished 7th.

I went light on the race playing 4 horses to win for $4 each and thought the EX. & Tri were a crapshoot. My 14 was taken out at the start and was done after that. Not because of my horse but I said prior the field should be limited to 14 as in the BC races.


I'm sure the track condition affected some but we'll never know, regardless the best horse won.


Audible ran a nice race coming from off the pace while taking a lot of slop and had to steady making his run, he was getting to Good Magic but ran out of ground / distance. Good Magic finally proved himself as a 3 yr.old and ran a big race. Overall just another race, onward and a better future to all.


raceman5 had the winner and Ted had the EX. BIG CONGRATS MEN.


If you haven't already done so I strongly suggest you determine your effectiveness with 3 yr. olds verses older or their predictability.

Glad it was a safe trip for both the jocks and horses. It also was a good race for the sport and with the favorite winning there were many happy fans especially those knew to racing.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 05-06-2018 at 10:36 AM.
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Old 05-06-2018, 12:58 PM   #2
Bill V.
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Justify

Hello Mitch

I made 4 small win bets on my top 4 contenders
5, 7 12, 18
I made a $9. .50 cent trifecta P/W but I used the 5 and 14 in the win spot
and put Justify for place only

Its always fun to see the California horses win when I'm at Del Mar
on derby day. Yesterday Justify keep the recent trend going.

Mitch, you seem down on Justify ? You look much deeper at handicapping factors and J/T records and patterns of running styles with deceleration,'
than I ever have or probably will, I am sure your seeing things clearer
than me but I feel Justify has something extra in his heart.

He has never disappointed, He is now 4-4 and in his first three races
he's took control of the race right of of the gate .
I look at his 3 races before the derby , and I think back to Ted's
classic qoute, He runs as fast as he needs to'
Looking at line 1. His EPR numbers are unbalance toward late
But he got a 3 length lead in the first fraction
He took that lead, relaxed the pace and blew away his rivals with a
excellent 3rd fraction to earn a 108 LPR.

His numbers from line 1, the SA derby will not rate as well but It was a
dominating performance . His TPR number is comparable to the other contenders , But because of his speed and running pattern
His EPR was unbalance , In truth "He ran as fast as he needed to"

Looking at the entry screen on RDSS Justify rated in the to 5
on all the non paceline generated readouts
APV, CR, CR+ Profit line and Morning line
I think we may have a very special horse here .

Bless
Bill

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Old 05-06-2018, 01:33 PM   #3
lone speed
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Pharaoh Territory

MSN article on Justify...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mor...7ri?li=BBnb7Kz

Some comments from Baffert from MSN article

On Saturday as Baffert hustled toward the winner’s circle after the Derby, he put Justify in the same sentence with those two horses. “Him and Arrogate and American Pharoah,” Baffert said. “These are the three best horses I ever trained.”



The victory for Baffert was the fifth of his career, second-most in Derby history, behind Ben Jones, who won six Derbies from 1938-52. He was humbled by the moment. “He is a great horse,” said Baffert. “To do what he did in that short a period of time… we saw something really great. That’s greatness right there.”



Justify’s first official work came during winter at Los Alamitos Race Track in Southern California. Baffert’s brother, Bill, was present for the session. “Bob said, ‘He’s a f---ing monster,’” recalled Bill after the Derby. Baffert decided to try to take down Apollo. Walden warned him not to push too hard. Baffert made a plan: A maiden race, an allowance race and then a Derby prep. He won the first on Feb. 18 and the second on March 11, both at Santa Anita. Baffert made a decision to send Justify to the April 14 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. That had been American Pharoah’s final prep race. Another Derby-bound three-year-old, McKinzie, was slated to run a week earlier in the Santa Anita Derby. But McKinzie got injured and Baffert, who does most of his work in California, made the decision to keep Justify at home. He won the Santa Anita Derby by three lengths, toying with a very good opponent named Bolt d’Oro. Derby game was on.


The Kentucky Derby:

Promises Fulfilled, a speedy sort of horse who had no choice but to hustle to the lead out of the No. 3 post position, went to the lead. Smith steered Justify just outside in a perfect stalking position, very similar to where Pharoah ran in his Derby. But the pace was exceptionally fast, 22.24 seconds for the first quarter-mile and 45.77 seconds for the half-mile. The quarter-mile time was the fifth-fastest in Derby history and the half was just outside the top 10. But then as Smith overhauled Promises Fulfilled, he also slowed the pace. Each successive quarter was slower than the one before it.

When did Bob Baffert knew Justify was a great horse:

Are we in Pharoah territory? “Oh, when he won his second race,” said Bob Baffert. “We were in Pharoah territory.”


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[COLOR="Navy"]Outside of the Methodology for the "pace line guidelines" for the Derby; the 2nd race of Justify's career was a very impressive performance. He started from the outside post and Justify went 4 wide from the starting gate all around the first and 2nd turn. The figures given; do not paint a true picture of Justify's performance in its first Route Race.[/COLOR]
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Old 05-06-2018, 02:12 PM   #4
Mitch44
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Hello Bill,
Glad to hear from you.


I'm not down on Justify at all and he is a good horse. I took the approach that for all the things he had to prove along with odds he was just not worth the risk.


I chose to go with horses that had upside and better odds for the risk. Additionally because of so many unknown factors in this race, which is typical of 3 yr. olds, it was just a recreational race for me. Bottom line is his risk didn't Justify my money.

I also believe he is a special horse but he'll have to get the mud off his feet and do it again to have a seat at table with the greats. Not many go undefeated and only time will tell if he takes his place among the elite. Many a Derby winners have never won another race. If I can see a way of making some money out of his future starts I may take it. Not the case with this race, race prior or after either.


Happy you and you're Dad are there for each other Bill. Glad for you having this winner and hope many more come your way.


Mitch44
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Old 05-06-2018, 05:24 PM   #5
atkinsrr
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Hey Bill V... how's it going???? well Justify beat me //// I win bet 3 horses Audible, Good Magic, and Bolt d'Oro...muddy track final time 2:04.....thought Good Magic was gonna get him in the stretch....just couldn't do it....hope you are doing ok health wise...Randy A.
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Old 05-06-2018, 08:06 PM   #6
lone speed
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How much is a $500 Future Bet on Justify worth$$

Apparently, a $500 futures bet on Justify winning the Kentucky Derby made in early February is worth $150,500.

ESPN article link:

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id...hurchill-downs
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Old 05-06-2018, 08:40 PM   #7
Mitch44
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Probably someone connected with Baffert or he made that bet. Form for young horses belongs to the connections.


While not racing as a 2 yr. old this horse was obviously in training, given a race within a workout is just as good as a real race if the competitor is good. They probably knew there really wasn't an Appollo curse with this one. This horse didn't get this good in 3 races and in 3 months. It takes about 3 months to get a horse to its first race. He trained for a long time as a 2 year old, especially to run as good as he did first out. Anybody besides Baffert and this horse would have paid some nice mutual to include the Derby. I don't think not starting was a physical issue as it is with most horses.
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Old 05-06-2018, 09:06 PM   #8
lone speed
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Probably someone connected with Baffert or he made that bet. Form for young horses belongs to the connections.


While not racing as a 2 yr. old this horse was obviously in training, given a race within a workout is just as good as a real race if the competitor is good. They probably knew there really wasn't an Appollo curse with this one. This horse didn't get this good in 3 races and in 3 months. It takes about 3 months to get a horse to its first race. He trained for a long time as a 2 year old, especially to run as good as he did first out. Anybody besides Baffert and this horse would have paid some nice mutual to include the Derby. I don't think not starting was a physical issue as it is with most horses.
Mitch44
Mitch,,

You are probably right....It was imply that the better received some valuable information after the maiden race win from the connections- indirectly...
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Old 05-06-2018, 10:24 PM   #9
Mr.Pagine
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Justify - an example of more than RDSS required

As I have said before in this forum; sometimes you need more than RDSS, and especially in developing 3 yr olds.

One could tell that Justify was a BEAST in his previous races, as he never got out of 3rd gear and Mike "Money"Smith never moved on him, and he won for fun each time out. Youtube is a wonderful thing.

I was fortunate enough to grab him at +1105 at my on-line sportsbook (-:

The one thing that I would say, and you all know this. The Grade 1 winners do well at Churchill, and the EX ans TRI were easy pickings. (I did not have them)

Happy Punting, and on to Baltimore.

Jon
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Old 05-08-2018, 03:17 PM   #10
tom
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Derby Chart revised - major BL corrections made

http://www.drf.com/news/equibase-cor...ky-derby-chart
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