Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Breeders' Cup > 2008
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

2008 Breeders' Cup 2008

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-22-2008, 12:07 PM   #1
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
BC Classic

First Cut

Euros are omitted (#4 #5 #8) - I don't know how to rate them...

Name:  OSA102508-9a.jpg
Views: 612
Size:  91.7 KB
Name:  OSA102508-9b.jpg
Views: 692
Size:  45.8 KB
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 02:19 PM   #2
Profiler8
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Germany
Posts: 148
Hi,

I think the europeans have a good chance this year. The Gosden runner Raven's Pass has a really good chance. The trainer has a good record on the all weather in Britain. The O Brien team is difficult to split. Well, the horses are really good, but can they go well on sand ? I do not know.
All the europeans will get good odds, in my opinion, so I will take a chance with these.

Greetings
Tim
Profiler8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 02:36 PM   #3
lsosa54
Grade 1
 
lsosa54's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
So it appears Curlin is not a lock?! Can't get to it until Fri night.
lsosa54 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 03:08 PM   #4
literato
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 12
hello all

this is my 1st post, I'm French and I also think that the European ones will give a good counterpart has Curlin which has the appearance of a scarecrow. In particular duke of
marmalade which will be better at this distance than that of the ARC DE TRIOMPHE.
about raven's pass and henrythenavigator what worries me is who will address this distance for the 1st time, otherwise it is 2 horses also very class

Greetings chris
literato is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 03:46 PM   #5
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Bienvenue Chris!

Well, I live and die by the numbers (though I've got my antennae raised for mind transmissions direct from Curlin ). I'm just not sure which numbers!

Just because several animals rank higher than Curlin (on some of my readouts) doesn't mean that the young fella won't rise to the occasion. He didn't earn that overwhelming Class Rating (marked RED) by being inconsistent. Go Between has run (extremely well) against inferior company, and is 5 years old. Tiago is an infuriating horse (for me) who closes from the moon (like his brother Giacomo) and must contend precisely with the entire parade in front of him to get there first. All 3 are clearly at the top of their game.

Duke and Henry have classy Group 1 success - and consistency: the next 2 class horses after Curlin. I'll have to hold my nose and consider this a prep race for them over a new surface (same with Raven).

I'll narrow my selection on Saturday.

Merci bien pour votre avis!

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 03:48 PM   #6
lsosa54
Grade 1
 
lsosa54's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
Just some thoughts.....

It will be very interesting to see if any horse that has not run on a synthetic surface before, such as Curlin, the 3 Europeans, Fairbanks, and Smooth Air run to their potential. This may well be the critical handicapping factor.

If you use each European's best Racing Post rating of 129-130+ and translate them to the Beyer scale, you would get Beyers of 113-114. Curlin and Student Council ran 112's in 2008 and the best Santa Anita Beyer in 2008 belongs to Go Between with a 109, so the Europeans would appear to be competitive. While this conversion is by no means exact, I don't think it's completely crazy either.

Obvious problem is the Europeans all come from turf courses, and only Henry's comes from a firm course condition. We know the Duke can get the 10f, but can he get them on Pro Ride? We don't even know if Henry or Raven's can get the 10f, let alone get it on Pro Ride.

If you believe in Tomlinson's breeding info, Duke has a distance rating of 317 and we know he can get the distance. Henry has a 348 which would SUGGEST he could get it but Raven's has a rating of 284, which might SUGGEST he would not go 10f comfortably.

Also keep in mind the early pace in those European turf routes tends to be pretty slow. HOWEVER, to be honest, I don't see an absolutely "need to lead" horse in this race.

Will Casino Drive try to steal it from the inside or will Fairbanks rush up for the lead from the outside with Colonel John pressing? Based on the European's comments, Henry and Raven's should both go positionally sustained here. Duke, on the other hand, has won by "tracking the leaders" and just missed winning twice on the lead. He lost by a nk and 1 length and on both occassions, was a fighter until the finish line. Can he handle the early pace here - it may not be that fast.

So, come to think of it, early pace and positioning AND Pro Ride may be the key factors here.

Whatever you do, don't take a short price.

Last edited by lsosa54; 10-22-2008 at 03:51 PM.
lsosa54 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 04:05 PM   #7
Charlie D
Match Up Apprentice
 
Charlie D's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
According to trainer report Ravens is going to be ridden prominent, so i'd say he'll be within 3 of leader
__________________
"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

Last edited by Charlie D; 10-22-2008 at 04:12 PM.
Charlie D is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 04:31 PM   #8
Charlie D
Match Up Apprentice
 
Charlie D's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
Curlin, Duke, Colonel and maybe Henry

Even though i think he could see these off, I couldn't bet Curlin at below 5-2/3-1 on Pro-Ride debut

Duke is a fighter, but comes here after some tough races, tempting though if double figures

Colonel is my outsider, home soil so climate no prob, distance no prob and if the above big two fail for whatever reason, i can see this guy kicking some butt

Henry is interesting, by Kingmambo, pedigree for 10f, but i'm not quite convinced he's got what it takes to rough up an on song Curlin, Duke and Colonel


Just gotta wait and see what's on offer Saturday
__________________
"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

Last edited by Charlie D; 10-22-2008 at 04:36 PM.
Charlie D is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2008, 08:56 PM   #9
lsosa54
Grade 1
 
lsosa54's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie D View Post
According to trainer report Ravens is going to be ridden prominent, so i'd say he'll be within 3 of leader
Charlie, I wish Mr. Gosden luck. In all his turf miles, the horse has been kept 5th or further back except for his next to last race, which was on an off turf course and was run in the slowest final time of any of his mile races.
lsosa54 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2008, 09:16 PM   #10
alydar_ David
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
Quote:
Originally Posted by lsosa54 View Post
It will be very interesting to see if any horse that has not run on a synthetic surface before, such as Curlin, the 3 Europeans, Fairbanks, and Smooth Air run to their potential. This may well be the critical handicapping factor.

If you use each European's best Racing Post rating of 129-130+ and translate them to the Beyer scale, you would get Beyers of 113-114. Curlin and Student Council ran 112's in 2008 and the best Santa Anita Beyer in 2008 belongs to Go Between with a 109, so the Europeans would appear to be competitive. While this conversion is by no means exact, I don't think it's completely crazy either.

Obvious problem is the Europeans all come from turf courses, and only Henry's comes from a firm course condition. We know the Duke can get the 10f, but can he get them on Pro Ride? We don't even know if Henry or Raven's can get the 10f, let alone get it on Pro Ride.

If you believe in Tomlinson's breeding info, Duke has a distance rating of 317 and we know he can get the distance. Henry has a 348 which would SUGGEST he could get it but Raven's has a rating of 284, which might SUGGEST he would not go 10f comfortably.

Also keep in mind the early pace in those European turf routes tends to be pretty slow. HOWEVER, to be honest, I don't see an absolutely "need to lead" horse in this race.

Will Casino Drive try to steal it from the inside or will Fairbanks rush up for the lead from the outside with Colonel John pressing? Based on the European's comments, Henry and Raven's should both go positionally sustained here. Duke, on the other hand, has won by "tracking the leaders" and just missed winning twice on the lead. He lost by a nk and 1 length and on both occassions, was a fighter until the finish line. Can he handle the early pace here - it may not be that fast.

So, come to think of it, early pace and positioning AND Pro Ride may be the key factors here.

Whatever you do, don't take a short price.
Nice post. I'm guessing it'll be like Ocean's 11...an inside job with Casino Drive.
alydar_ David is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Juvenile Males Turf - Race 6 - October 25 Ted Craven 2008 6 10-30-2008 03:52 AM
Juvenile Males - Race 5 - October 25 Ted Craven 2008 6 10-25-2008 04:08 PM
Turf Mile - Race 4 - October 25 Ted Craven 2008 6 10-25-2008 03:24 PM
Ladies Classic - Race 7 - October 24 Charlie D 2008 16 10-24-2008 06:33 PM
Juvenile Fillies - Race 5 - October 24 Ted Craven 2008 15 10-24-2008 05:17 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:00 PM.