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Old 06-04-2014, 04:09 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Belmont route adjustment?

Early Sartin for races on one turn miles vs two turn miles first cautioned against adjusting times and asked the handicapper to try to find races where the contenders had both races on either 1 or 2 turn tracks. At the time it was generally noticed that mile times at one turn tracks were about 1 second faster at the 6 furlong mark and 1.6 seconds (8-5ths) faster at the finish.

A year ago the American Turf published 2013 Track equalization chart had Belmont routes with a 102 rating and Santa Anita routes with a 94 rating, which meant that Belmont routes were about 8 ticks FASTER than SA, so you would slow down Belmont times when coming the two tracks.

The 2014 version of that same chart has Belmont at 104 and SA at 101, indicating that Bel times should be slowed 3/5ths when comparing to SA.

HOWEVER, the three year best times thru 2012 as published by DRF show Bel 9 furlong best of 146.2 and SA at 147.4 or 7 fifths. The same info thru 2013 show Bel at 146.2 and SA at 146.2!!!

They still run one turn miles and one turn 9f races at Belmont vs both being 2 turn races at SA.

I will adjust Belmont times when comparing the contenders for this weekend's Belmont Stakes. That will slow down the times on Tonalist, Commissioner and Matterhorn. I am going to stick with a 5 tick adjustment for the mile times of these horses and handicap this Marathon going forward.
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Old 06-04-2014, 04:35 PM   #2
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Belmont - the race

General A Rod looks like he finally gets lead along with perhaps Tonalist. the next group has Commissioner, Samraat and California Chrome, followed by everyone who thinks he can close - to include Ride on Curlin, Medal Count, Commanding Curve and Wicked Strong.

Mile time-wise California Chrome has 3 of the top 5 mile times, with General a Rod with the 3rd best time.

I think the race comes down to Chrome and Genl a Rod with any one of the 4 closers from above trying for either 2nd or 3rd.

Good luck Saturday.
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Old 06-05-2014, 08:14 AM   #3
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Thanks Bill, love reading your posts.
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Old 06-05-2014, 11:23 PM   #4
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Belmont the race: Bill after running RDSS I'm looking at Samraat or Cal Chrome getting the lead. Used Chromes Preakness line and Samraats Wood Mem line....If Cal Chrome gets beat I've got 3 horses that can do it.....Ride on Curlin, Wicked Strong, Commanding Curve.....Samraat is next but borderline on my numbers but I'll still use him on my pic 4 ticket......good luck to all saturday
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Old 06-06-2014, 08:25 AM   #5
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At the Preakness Curlin came out of his hoofs and looked like he was going to catch CC - perhaps on a longer race????
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:39 PM   #6
Bill Lyster
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I used Chrome's Preakness and one SA line, Samraats from the G1 Wood. Look at the segments screen to see who is close and closing...

I just don't think Samraat can keep up vs top 3. Beware of Medal Count who made a move from 8th to 3rd and 4th to 1st in two poly efforts. Was shuffled back in Derby so no chance. We don't know if this one can do dirt
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