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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 06-03-2019, 12:03 PM   #1
Mitch44
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Beginners and Refresher Course

I recommend that the series; " Once again from the top." by Sartin be read.

The master address's many questions frequently asked and will even enlighten those that have been around for years. The material is overwhelmingly pertinent today and insightful.

Not all will agree with the master but a handicapper must take advantage of every proven positive to be successful.This is a much more simplified version than most of his writings and starts with "Concept."

Read the "Once again from the top" series starting from Follow Up # 43 through #59.

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Old 06-03-2019, 12:44 PM   #2
Bill V.
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Great

Thanks for the advice Mitch
It is always good to learn again, review and refresh
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Old 06-03-2019, 04:29 PM   #3
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Lots of good stuff in there Bill. Hope your well my friend.


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Old 06-03-2019, 07:52 PM   #4
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Good Idea, Mitch. I constantly read and re-read all the Follow Ups. They are very helpful,
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Old 06-04-2019, 07:02 AM   #5
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Very much so Chuck. There is the danger of somethings not current within them which is why the recommended reading list is the later ones, say #70 and later. The later ones also contain information on later developments and programs.


Those of us that have been around a very long time are able to wade through all the old junk and extract the very good stuff. This particular series is excellent to understanding the evolution, match up and concept of all this. Pretty much all of it is current to the present day. Perhaps we can discuss some of it in this thread.


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Old 06-04-2019, 10:45 AM   #6
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Another great source of info is the Docs' 1998 video seminar which available in the library. This is an opportunity to hear directly from the Doc himself pointing out what was at the time what he endorsed and how to use the programs of the time. These tapes were the things that helped me turn the corner from inconsistency to being able to produce profit on a consistent basis.. Well worth ones time
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Old 06-05-2019, 10:14 AM   #7
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FU # 43 key points,facts or statements, takeaway's:

pg. 38 " TPR, is still Phase I and,while it's a better handicapping tool than those popular Pace/Speed Figures, its predictive value is quite limited for those seeking professional level win proficiency and profits." pg. 48 " The winners are still there but their resultant win price has dropped."

pg. #42 "With few exceptions,(again there are always a few), truly successful handicappers don't cluster toward a group mean; don't feel compelled to get along with everybody or to be know as Mr.(or Ms.) "nice guy." I was surprised to the max reading this one, of course open to your own interpretation.

pg. #42 "The quest for absolutes and rules is the downfall of most aspiring handicappers." pg.43 "Another vital CONCEPT of this Methodology is this: In succ- essful Handicapping THERE ARE NO RULES."

pg. 44 " The MATCH-UP.This is the mechanical bottom line for all 7 phases of the Methodology." At the time of this writing there were 7 phases, and after this other phases and programs were developed. Even today within the RDSS program it still is the main ingredient to the recipe or bottom line. Note: this does not mean BLBL!!

pg.46 Static numerical ratings such as a Beyer SR are based on a horses innate ability without regard for the contenders it's going against in a specific race. "The essence of the Match Up is NOT how well or fast a horse can run but how it will run against today's contention. The Match Up is based on incremental times and positions or, if you want to join the crowd ,call it pace." I myself think the best way to understand pace is to think of the 3 Fraction's as 3 different speed ratings or measurements.

pg. 47 He talks about different factors, many would not exist without the 3 Fractions, by going to the 3 Fr's the win proficiency increased to 63 %. Higher than what can be achieved with just 2 increments of measurements or TPR / phase 1 These compounded factors greatly raised the bar of proficiency. Also Huey Mall said that segments of a race reduces the effects of a variant, or more segments the less the effect the variant will have on a race. I might add even more so with several compounded factors or ratings.

What are your takeaway's?

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Old 06-05-2019, 11:39 AM   #8
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Simple

Dear Mitch

This is from Howard Sartin himself,
Introduction Howard G Sartin, Ph. D.
Page xiii

The publisher's comment on the books dust jacket are to me, most provocative.
" There is a revolution going on in the world of thoroughbred handicapping.
One of its leaders is Tom Brohamer, who in Modern Pace Handicapping,
shares his knowledge of pace and shows how to become a sure winner.
Written by a leading practitioner of the Sartin Methodology, the book
is the first and only word that matters on pace in thoroughbred handicapping"
I am credited with firing the first shots in this handicapping revolution:
The most talked about and significant in the 1980s and gaining momentum
in the 90s. When this method was developed in 1975, certain members in my Win Therapy group had difficulty in effectivly utilizing the
complex formulae and numeral compounding of feet per seconnd calculations. By adopting a simpler version, as described in this book,these
clients were able to enjoy success levels on a par with those clients who
chose the more elaborate techniques so well described in Brohamer's book.
The handicappers ultimate task is predicting the outcome of future events
The means of prediction may be elaborate or simple. The road taken is secondary to reaching the destination. Total Pace Rating, while easy to apply are a harmonious counterpoint to the technologicaly perfect melodic line of Modern Pace Handicapping. This volume will detail some aspects of the
Methodology that Brohamer touched upon lightly or not at all; and will make but short references to the many areas that Brohamer deals with in brilliant
detail .

Mitch I love this piece from PMTR.
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Old 06-05-2019, 06:05 PM   #9
Bill V.
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Hi Mitch
It is me again

I don't think there are many here at pace and cap who exceed my respect and beliefs in Howard Sartin's words and guidelines

Here are my replies to your topics These are just my opinions based on my hundreds of conversations with Howard Sartin and Jim Bradshaw, Richie and Ted Craven and FTL

pg. 38 " TPR, is still Phase I and,while it's a better handicapping tool than those popular Pace/Speed Figures,


I will take these two together, I feel TPR/Pace is much better than other pace
speed figures. For two reasons, 1, The figures we see on the TPR screen in RDSS are adjusted using the adjustments from within RDSS and The Sartin "Par Gap" speed ratings, not the publicly offered trackmaster speed ratings .
2, They are consistently and accurately created by the program. Muxh
more acurate and not prone to mistakes in calculations than hand created from charts. Even Doc, and Jimmy automated Phase 1 starting in later versions of Energy by using the dream race "pars"

pg. 48
"Its predictive value is quite limited for those seeking professional-level win proficiency and profits."
The winners are still there but their resultant win price has dropped."

Doc and others have advised me NOT to seek this as a profession.
It limits growth in a fully rounded healthy lifestyle.

I feel there are many other reasons why prices have dropped,
that has more to do with betting options and data available to the public.
Free of charge and instantly available online.
I sit and wager with a group at Del Mar, I am the only member of this small
syndicate that uses the Sartin Methodology. We use a mixture of classic handicapping factors, jockey and trainer stats, form factors and my input from RDSS and or the classic programs.

None of us together would have the success we have using any single method, but as a group we are profitable




pg. #42 "With few exceptions,(again there are always a few), truly successful handicappers don't cluster toward a group mean; don't feel compelled to get along with everybody or to be know as Mr.(or Ms.) "nice guy." I was surprised to the max reading this one, of course open to your own interpretation.

I disagree in part, I feel working with others build strength when handicapping alone, It's great to have support when you believe your mentor is there to help you.


pg. #42 "The quest for absolutes and rules is the downfall of most aspiring handicappers." pg.43 "Another vital CONCEPT of this Methodology is this: In succ- essful Handicapping THERE ARE NO RULES."


I agree, but there are stat driven researchable supported Guidelines


pg. 44 " The MATCH-UP.This is the mechanical bottom line for all 7 phases of the Methodology." At the time of this writing there were 7 phases, and after this other phases and programs were developed."
" Even today within the RDSS program it still is the main ingredient to the recipe or bottom line. Note: this does not mean BLBL!!
"

I agree All Phases are based on the Match UP

"pg.46 Static numerical ratings such as a Beyer SR are based on a horse's innate ability without regard for the contenders it's going against in a specific race. "The essence of the Match Up is NOT how well or fast a horse can run but how it will run against today's contention. The Match-Up is based on incremental times and positions or, if you want to join the crowd, call it pace."

I totally agree with the first part


"I myself think the best way to understand pace is to think of the 3 Fraction's as 3 different speed ratings or measurements."

I disagree,I feel the first fraction effects the other two fractions, The second fraction is measured at the second call but is build and influenced by the first two fractions. The 3rd fraction is mostly influenced by the first two fractions
This is an entirely in North America dirt racing, Not as much so in turf racing.



pg. 47 He talks about different factors, many would not exist without the 3 Fractions, by going to the 3 Fr's the win proficiency increased to 63 %. Higher than what can be achieved with just 2 increments of measurements or TPR / phase 1 These compounded factors greatly raised the bar of proficiency. Also Huey Mall said that segments of a race reduces the effects of a variant, or more segments the less the effect the variant will have on a race. I might add even more so with several compounded factors or ratings.

I agree It is better to use RDSS or a classic program that rates all three factors, If one is not proficient with Phase 1/TPR and just looks at the total pace rating they will struggle to hit 63%. However If one incorporates the early and late differential readouts of EPR and LPR, along with Med % and deceleration as taught by Doc in the advanced concepts of Phase1/TPR, Than a win proficiency of 63 percent is achievable.

Other factors, such as passing the correct races, looking for value and betting wisely with a greater knowledge of Brohamer and FTL guidelines will greatly improve win proficiency

What are your takeaway's?
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Old 06-05-2019, 10:10 PM   #10
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Good

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
FU # 43 key points,facts or statements, takeaway's:

pg. 38 " TPR, is still Phase I and,while it's a better handicapping tool than those popular Pace/Speed Figures, its predictive value is quite limited for those seeking professional level win proficiency and profits." pg. 48 " The winners are still there but their resultant win price has dropped."

pg. #42 "With few exceptions,(again there are always a few), truly successful handicappers don't cluster toward a group mean; don't feel compelled to get along with everybody or to be know as Mr.(or Ms.) "nice guy." I was surprised to the max reading this one, of course open to your own interpretation.

pg. #42 "The quest for absolutes and rules is the downfall of most aspiring handicappers." pg.43 "Another vital CONCEPT of this Methodology is this: In succ- essful Handicapping THERE ARE NO RULES."

pg. 44 " The MATCH-UP.This is the mechanical bottom line for all 7 phases of the Methodology." At the time of this writing there were 7 phases, and after this other phases and programs were developed. Even today within the RDSS program it still is the main ingredient to the recipe or bottom line. Note: this does not mean BLBL!!

pg.46 Static numerical ratings such as a Beyer SR are based on a horses innate ability without regard for the contenders it's going against in a specific race. "The essence of the Match Up is NOT how well or fast a horse can run but how it will run against today's contention. The Match Up is based on incremental times and positions or, if you want to join the crowd ,call it pace." I myself think the best way to understand pace is to think of the 3 Fraction's as 3 different speed ratings or measurements.

pg. 47 He talks about different factors, many would not exist without the 3 Fractions, by going to the 3 Fr's the win proficiency increased to 63 %. Higher than what can be achieved with just 2 increments of measurements or TPR / phase 1 These compounded factors greatly raised the bar of proficiency. Also Huey Mall said that segments of a race reduces the effects of a variant, or more segments the less the effect the variant will have on a race. I might add even more so with several compounded factors or ratings.

What are your takeaway's?

Mitch44
Hello Mitch

What are your takeaway's?

I don't feel io missed your point at all.

I only did what you asked for. I realize the main snippets you post are Doc's words taken from his "from the top" articles
They are not yours. That is why I quoted and italicized the question and or statements you presented.

I am very thankful for this topic and your postings,
It has always been my wish for this type of inquiry of Doc's words.
From day one of my creation of VDC Messenger and then Pace and Cap, I hoped things mentioned in from EVERY follow-up, could be questioned.

If something is written that somebody feels may be out of date or has statistical evidence against his words they should be discussed in the Pace and Cap friendly manner.

Now to be clear once again, I respect Doc's words and guidelines to the max.
I don't want folks to say Bill V. is anti-Doc. No far from it.
If Doc were still with us, I am sure he would use our members to validate things for him, As he did in the infancy of Ted's RDSS program.

Thank you so much for your postings. However, not everything that was written
in the early '90s is still applicable in today's racing and should be discussed
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