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06-08-2017, 06:10 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 377
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Belmont Stakes Preliminary Analysis
#1. I 'm not questioning his fitness, 15F/14D, only his ability against proven graded stakes winners. Picks up 4lbs. going longer. Javier up always a plus, but I think not here. Presser type.
#2. Fitness ok,14F/15D. Even if I throw out his last race, why should I not believe his Blue Grass-had the whole race to recover but didn't. Was it the extra 7 lbs?? Closer type. One point: if the chart maker calls a sloppy track wet fast(Fake News!!) why should I trust his comments that he makes on any horse in that race. I think he's just looking to make excuses on horses HE FEELS SHOULD HAVE RUN BETTER. I also think he had one too many mint juleps that day but hey it's your nickel! Just go back and watch your horse in those races and you decide. #3. 17F/15D. Won the SA Derby GR.1 race- oops, so did I. Presser type, seems to be a good race/bad race type lately and looks like he's due for a good race. #4. 10F/7D. Seems fit enough. Throw out last. Shows ability. Beat the Preakness winner 3 back.Consider. #5. Seems fit but looks to be outclassed here. Closer may get 4th in super if track favors closers on Saturday and all contenders collapse. Don't believe him to be a serious contender but the connections pays their money and gets to watch him run. IN CASE YOU'RE WONDERING AND YOU PROBABLY WEREN'T, I HAVE A B.A. IN THEATRE AND MINORED IN ENGLISH. YES, I READ BEOWULF IN OLD ENGLISH, CHAUCER IN MIDDLE ENGLISH AND TOOK A YEAR OF SHAKESPEARE, CLASS OF '75 A.S.U. All that preparation and studying gave me a clear head for the ponies. #6. Dead fit. Has the class(ability). Consistent deep closer. Somehow just has to find a way to seal the deal.(Period) #7 No question he will be part of the pace. Was able to rebound after collapsing on 3/4/17 with a win. But again you have to see how the track is playing. MY ADVISE IS TO GO BACK TO 6/5/04 AND 6/7/98, WATCH THE DIRT ROUTE RACES ON UNDERCARD TO SEE HOW THE TRACK PLAYED ON THOSE DAY GOING INTO THE BELMONT. #8. Is dead fit. Has shown improving ability. Has a closing style. His pre race antics might have cost him a placing. Belongs with these. #9. Another lightly raced horse who's fit and should argue the pace. The question is does he have the ability and will he be able to handle the fast track after 2 efforts on the off going and can he handle the distance with a 10 lb. pick up. My instincts say no. #10. Dead fit. Has ability. The blinkers on suggest they want him either closer to the pace and/or more focused on business.Contender. #11. Has shown he can handle the layoffs, again lightly race. Probably doesn't speak english so shouldn't be distracted by the other horses antics. Will argue the pace, at least I think he should. His m.l. at 4-1 suggest he's a serious contender. Just like in maiden races you're just going to have to watch the board action on this horse. Me personally, I think if they let this horse dictate his own terms here on pace he may steal the race. However, history has shown me that N.Y. jockey,s will never let an outsider get an easy lead. Just ask Stewart Elliott in 2004!!! JUST HOLD YOUR NOSE AND COVER THE HORSE. DON'T WORRY, BE HAPPY- SAFE NOT SORRY! #12. To me another Pletcher flunky. I hear the raves on t.v. that his sire won the Belmont. His sire had the credentials to win it. This horse has no credentials. Pretender, not a contender. Nuff said. TONIGHT I WILL RUN MY NUMBERS ON THIS RACE AND POST MY RESULTS TOMORROW. |
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