|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
RDSS2 / FAQ's Information, discussion, screenshots, videos about the upcoming version, FAQ's |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
08-04-2011, 12:23 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Del Mar NewPace Results thru 7/31/2011
I worked 70 races from the current Del Mar season from opening day through last Sunday with much gracious help from Ted C. See notes at bottom for races not worked.
I ran the original EL 2.0 logic because I think that even though it was not strictly in conformance with the way Dave Schwartz originally had it, it was the way that Ted first interpreted it and far from being a dud, it has the best results so far. Next to that info I ran a filter that eliminated any horse without a race in 95 days or who had not had a race or a workout in 45 days (at DMR, no body even enters without several works); for routes I cut this layoff back to 75 days; then I eliminated any horse with morning line odds of 20:1 or greater. ROI for win, exacta and trifecta are shown. The next batch of data is for the current logic of the program (TM SR, in blue headed columns) and the first panels are straight program logic, no filters; the next one eliminated 180 day layoffs, 40 days not on track and ML > 20/1; the last set of info in orange is the 95/40/20:1 stuff mentioned earlier. lastly, I did the same for "Adjusted SR"(blue). Quite honestly, this was a disappointment for me because I imagined that the programs adjustments would produce better results. The win ROI is 21% for 4 horses. Oh yeah, Columns AH to AN show the 1st, 2nd 3rd, 4th place finisher, winners odds to $1 and $1 payoffs for exacta and trifecta. This is all the info I have for these races, you are seeing it all. If its not there and you want it, have a go at some independent research my friends and sort it to your heart's content or confusion, whichever comes first. Whether you use this part of the program as a stand alone handicapping tool or an adjunct to RDSS, it brings into play horses that RDSS users in the mainstream normally don't get, in my opinion. For instance if you go into RDSS and label the visual running style of the runners you will find a few races where one or more of the 4 suggested Early/Late contenders can be eliminated. By doing so, "judiciously", the ROI should go up. NewPace DMR 2011.xls Best regards, Bill Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-04-2011 at 10:24 AM. |
08-04-2011, 08:40 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
|
Bill..
An excellent and current workout at one track......nice job!! At 31% and no thinking at all using original EL....would be way to go(at Delmar , but can be different at your track) exotics...looks like you should avoid altogether there's no difference of who's better..the E's or L's some of the bigger payoffs are in the E category especially over last few days on chart..L's produce more low prices These are things you can see and profit on with a workup like this Maybe with Dave's NP Improvements you can revise this chart and show some better results.. again..good job Bill
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
08-04-2011, 09:12 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
|
Just fooling around with your chart..
I know this is a small sample but maybe a pattern will unfold... 8.5 distance ..4 winners out of 5 races at an avg of 7-1 odds.. Turf races are unprofitable... hmmm
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
08-04-2011, 11:25 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
|
At 8 fur dirt....5 out of 8 winners .."E" only
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
08-04-2011, 11:42 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
|
Nice stuff Bill, with the way Mike is going thru it I am actually getting a better understanding of what I am seeing, thanks both you guys..really
patrick
__________________
http://pktruckdriver.blogspot.com/ |
08-04-2011, 11:52 AM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Thanks Bill
Hey Bill
Top 3 VDC has not been doing much at all These are the results of my daily Del mar selections so far This is just basic Sartin stuff Best of last three (but not auto selected ) Using my own skill or judgement so others results will vary thanks Top 3 VDC results.xls Bill V. |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
** NewPace in RDSS 2.0 ** | Ted Craven | RDSS2 / FAQ's | 16 | 09-04-2014 03:10 PM |
NewPace / RDSS | mikesal57 | RDSS2 / FAQ's | 60 | 08-03-2011 05:24 PM |
Checking Results for Demo Database | JeffH | General Discussion | 1 | 10-17-2010 12:56 PM |