Gp 8-6

[Lt1]

Rich is right on the money when it comes to using the top 5 ranked Bris Prime Power and top 5 ranked Profit Line horses as his contenders. Year in and year out they have the winner of every race run in the country 90% of the time. Nothing I know of gets 100 %. Also I would caution not to get hung up on the gap numbers in the BPP. I don't worry about the gaps. I would also recommend using the BRIS PPS as a supplement to the Trackmaster pps since sealed tracks are not shown in the TMpps and that could lead to using a paceline that should be avoided if at all possible. They also have more detailed info then TM which can be of great value.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Tim:

I understand what you mean about not obsessing with the gaps in BPP. My point was that one should view all the BPP numbers to see how close the numbers were for all the horses. The closer the field is, the more probable that a horse outside the top five will have a legit chance to win. You can see all the BPP numbers by hovering over the BPP column on the Rx+ screen. RDSS does recognize ties in BPP, but if the BPP is only 0.1 lower it gets the next higher BPP rating number.

In some old research that I did, the winning horses BPP was within 94% of the top number about 84% of the time. In some races 94% of the best BPP number covered the entire field so in those fields you should look at all the closely grouped horses before making elimination decisions.

Bill

[Lt1]

Thanks Bill. I wanted to point out that we have to check the rankings. There will be races where a horse is ranked #1 and has never run on todays surface and it may have a 2 or 3 pt gap over the next horse. I myself don't pay attention to the gaps since I'm only interested in the top 5 ranked since the winner will be there 90% of the time. Once I have them I have ways of moving horses up or down regardless of gaps.
Tim