Oaklawn 4/2/08

[stormbringer]

The Card At Oaklawn On 4/2/08 Was A Bad Card "for Me"i Tried To Stick With An 80 Adj Sdeed Rating In Some Race's You Would Not Have Any Contenders So I Droped It Down. Then Got Bit By A Horse That Has Not Won In "forever" Getting BEAT By A Long Shot Does Not Brother Me Like Getting Beat By A 1/2 Horse. Adimin What Do You In That Case When A Horse Don't Have 80, Or 70 Sr. And You Don't Won't Pass The Race.

Storm

[admin]

Hello Stormbringer

I'm sitting waiting in line 3 deep at a loading dock
so I might have some time to explain myself

I use the 80 adjusted speed rating as kind of like a race par
or more so as a grade for a horses effort

To me in any race rating that is over 80
The winner of the race will usually get a adjusted speed rating
over 80

If the race rating is low like 70 Its likely that you have to
step down the 80 Race rating guide to maybe 75 or so

Here is a race today 4/3 at Oaklawn
Its race 7 with no scratches that I know of

The first horse I always look at is the RED DOT
horse , What I mean is This is the horse with the best
Class rating of the two readouts APV and CR

The Red dot you see on the horses tab is this horse

These Red dot horses are almost always also in the top 3 APV
and at most tracks they have won or run well lately

Here is horse 3

look at his APV and CR readouts He is # 1 on both
lets look at line 2
It ran well and earned a 79 SR that is my paceline
So in this race the 79 is right there for the 80 speed rating
guide

[admin]

Moving along nicely in line

the 4 is the yellow Dot Its third in CR

I see the 77 4 back at LAD this horse has done not too well at OP
I will use the 77 but note to bet against

[admin]

The green Dot is next

another layoff and horse dropping from a high of 78 3 back

[admin]

Now I do the rest of the horses I see I am looking at high 70's horses

# 1 Route lines NL
# 2 line 2 77 SR but Its off a long time and the APV and CR are week
also ran against a low 63 Race Class
#5 looks solid in this race 75 SR last line in an 80 Race Calss
#6 Favorite Line 2 fits This horse is dropping coments in last race said
evenly decent apv and CR but I don't want to use the 81 line 3
because of the dropping speed ratings and no dots
#8 Route line 1 73 SR but I like the 0.0 Bl in the first two calls
If this horse has late energy I will bet it underneath
# 9 0ut poor apv Cr and low Speed ratings

[admin]

Things look very good for the 6
I have no idea about odds or scratches

If I had to Bet Docs way I would figure the 6 was a hide
and bet the 7 and 2


Hope I helped

Good skill Stormbringer

Bill

[stormbringer]

Hope I Didn't Mess Things Up On The Loading Dock. Thanks Again, I Have Noted That As You Go Lower From 80 The More The Form Of The Horse Is Bad. And As You Go Higher All The Horse's Are Better. Hope You Don't Work To Hard. Your Help Is Great!
Storm

[admin]

Originally Posted by stormbringer

Hope I Didn't Mess Things Up On The Loading Dock. Thanks Again, I Have Noted That As You Go Lower From 80 The More The Form Of The Horse Is Bad. And As You Go Higher All The Horse's Are Better. Hope You Don't Work To Hard. Your Help Is Great!
Storm

Its no problem I spend lots of time waiting Thats why its cool to get online I did rush the race so much so that I did not put a line in for horse 3

Here is my better BLBL

Now its 3 and 7
If the 6 is a hide

[stormbringer]

the winner is in there great handicapping

[admin]

Storm Getting back to your question

The better APV Class rating horses are not always the better form horse
Some times they are horses that were good once but have fallen on hard times The thing I look for is Usually one two or all three of the "dot'
horses are the key to the target speed rating race pare for that race

I really enjoyed doing the race You made my afternoon

GS
Bill