Trying to Beat Rachel Alexandra

[Bill Lyster]

In the hopes of finding a decent price to use in pick 3, Oaks-Derby Dbl and other races:

First the bad news: first screen shot. RA's last four races would put her tops in the BL/BL. The 2nd shot shows that her energy is used late, but visually, at least, she doesn't need the lead (3rd line).

A Glimmer of Hope: RA's first route at CD was using sustained energy and she couldn't make the lead running 46.3 and 110.3. Nobody ran anywhere near close to 111 against her, so she took the lead in anywhere from 112 to 112.3, or so.

3rd shot: Gabby shows wire to wire in 22.9, but the Form running line actually shows that she was second by 1, which is why I called her an E/P. Track charts I've seen rate OP and Sun about equal for routes, although RDSS downgrades the Sunland time when you view the adjusted data, slowing down Gabby quite a bit. So this raises a question as to whether RA can be pressed at all. If she can't, I think the race is over.

But, if she can be pressed and if Gabby can gun to the early lead to apply that pressure, Justwhistledixie, passing horses and gaining ground against a 110.2 pace can go by her. Back adjusting her finish time (149.3 - 6.4) [all in 10th's here] would make her finish time 142.9 - she wins by 2 or more.

So I think anyone can finish second and Nan might hit 2nd, more probably 3rd to pick up pieces of front end duel with her closing kick. The only neg for Nan is that of the race tracks shown for the contenders SA is by far the fastest. If you downgrade Nan from that, she probably can't hit the board.

And a big tip of the hat to Wayne Lukas for entering enough horses that the prices might be reasonable in the event the favorite can be beat!

Comment away!

[tfm]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

So I think anyone can finish second and Nan might hit 2nd, more probably 3rd to pick up pieces of front end duel with her closing kick. The only neg for Nan is that of the race tracks shown for the contenders SA is by far the fastest. If you downgrade Nan from that, she probably can't hit the board.

Nan's a poly and turf horse. I realize that some horses can handle all types of surfaces but she's shown that she's not very good on the dirt.

[Bill Lyster]

I tend to agree with your analysis on Nan. Here is the velocity screen and while it shows Nan with second best F2, she is last to the 2nd call, has worst TS of the group and her F3 can only overtake Gabby (maybe). With the 5th best TE and more than 2 TE pts from the best, it does not bode well Except if two or more horses go head to head up front (that's the hope anyway).

I am going to post sometime soon about other aspects of the Velocity screen, but note that the first two horses at the 2nd call have computer generated ESPs of P and L, whereas my visual call is P on both. The visual EPs have L computer generated ESPs. At this point I'm not sure if this is good or not. The 5 and 8 look to overpower the two EPs with superior 2F moves, that would negate better looking 3F info (See RA). The 8 was in a tandem with the 6, so needs to improve or have a speed matchup that eliminates the 6. 8 is young enuf to improve, so she will make the double and pick three tickets as well, IMHO.