Canadian International

[Bill Lyster]

Overview comments:
this is a grade 1 race, so we should look at horses that have already won Group/grade 1 races or that have been competitive at or near that level.

The 4 has 4 graded wins, one Group1, one Group 2 and 2 Group 3.
The 6 has one Grade 2 win.
The 9 has two Grade 1 wins;

All of the horses are 4 YO or older and carry the same weight, so there is no highweight to consider. Its not a Handicap race in any event.

Suntracer (3), Pyrite Mountain (8), War Dancer (6) and O'Prado Ole (1) are from a last race tandem, where it looks like Suntracer ran its best race in a very long time, and Pyrite Mountain is listed as having a troubled trip after a very sustained rally from 10th early on (chart says it bobbled several times in backstretch); War Dancer steadied slightly in stretch.

[Bill Lyster]

Pace here is a bit of a problem. The 10 can be competitive at distance if the pace is slow enough, but it lost a G2 after a 115 split; it won at a mile after a 109.6 split. I suspect todays pace is somewhere in between, but that it won't matter too much. The 1 and 2 are the other front types with the 1 fading while recording a 134.2 mile and the 2 pressing from either 1st or 2nd while recording 136.4 and 136.6 mile times.

Of the 3-6 or 8 War Dancer, the 6, has run 133.8 running 4-4-4 and has won 2 Grade 2 races. the other two are out.

the best Canadian based horse might be the 5, Dynamic Sky, but he has not won in a long time and best races are a Grade 1 and Grade 2 place. Has run 133.6 from 6-5-4 positions.

Of the two Euros the 4 beat the 7 heads up, but both look to run much longer than 1.5 miles. The 7 has done well in Group 3 and 2, but no GP 1 wins. Has placed several times this year, but not a win contender for me with best mile at 137.6.

I cannot extract a good mile from the lines of the 4, Brown Panther, but his 4 graded wins, 2 GP1, speak well. Looks to press which should be ideal after the 1-2-10 fizzle near the lead.

The 9 has the two best miles at 133.3 and 133.0, always rallies from way back, has 2 Grade 1 wins and has been very competitive under splits ranging from 110 to 114. My obvious choice.

This would not be a race to go all in on because of the two Euros and their lack of usable races. If you discount them, you could catch a price on something other than the 9

My win picks would be, the 9, Big Blue Kitten, the 4, Brown Panther and the 6, War Dancer. I am not sure that Brown Panther can crank it up in time for this his shortest race of the year, but he has been on the board in all starts this year. I will probably box these three and then look for a price from the 5 and 8 under the win.

[Bill Lyster]

The 6 has won a Grade 2 and a grade 3, NOT 2 grade 2 races.