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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 02-10-2019, 09:14 PM   #31
lone speed
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Join Date: Nov 2011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post

In horse racing the game is fraught with facts. No one questions their validity and blindly accepts them. Case in point; it is stated that favorites win 33% of time and have for the last 50 or 60 years. Today this is no longer true because the game has changed with many more tracks, shorter fields, not enough horses to go around all of which which increase the number of favorites. And it always was that higher class horses are more consistent and have a higher % of favorites winning. Few have broken this down by class. There is a huge difference between older G1 horses favorites winning % and the % of the lowly NW2L etc. type races. Remember that 33% encompassed all and the worst races brought down those averages.






Mitch44

You make many great points here Mitch!!!
Thank for your sharing....
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Old 02-11-2019, 06:46 AM   #32
Mitch44
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Your welcome Lone speed.


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Old 02-12-2019, 03:52 PM   #33
Mitch44
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The best Preceptor line should be checked against two things:


1. That the line chosen conforms to the horses normal ESP running style. I'm talking about the computer driven running style from % Med. not the visual style as indicated by RS. These are entirely two different things. A horse can go wire to wire on the lead and not be an Early horse. The % Med is a much more accurate measurement that doesn't fool the eyes and deceive the brain. By clicking on a horses TPR+ E/L tap one can see how a horse normally runs by the blue and red graphs. Within these graphs are contained various styles; Red = E,EP and P, Blue = SP,S and L. Some horses will have all red or all blue but what do we do with a horse that has both? Now here is a key to this, the reason a horse may have both is they tend to only do what they have to in a race. Look at its CPR and Total Energy numbers and choose a graph style that indicates it highest numbers for CPR & Tot. Energy as its preferred and best running style. Then choose a line that conforms to its style as verified by its better CPR and Tot. En. ratings.

2.That the variant for that line isn't taken from an non-normal track variant. The average variant is approximately 17 .They tend to run lower in the west where there is less rain and slower in the east where not only more rain but deeper tracks. Typically variants are normal from 7 to 27. This encompasses 5 lengths
Its not unusual to find variants of 40 to 50 or far below 7, on heavy turf races or frozen tracks. Once these variants get beyond a certain point their accuracy are doubtful at best. Many horses can be gotten by more than one line. To check this is simple, just go to the BLBL screen and click on the original tab and all the variants are shown for the horses and lines chosen. Or it can be done at the time of selecting a line as the variant is shown to the right side.


One and two above are also valid reasons to go past a line in using Sartin guidelines of best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface.


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Old 02-13-2019, 10:43 AM   #34
Old Arkie Gal
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Mitch, Thanks. Once again you stimulate my thinking and provide alternatives to more traditional approaches in the use of RDSS. I really appreciate what you share with us.
Pat
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Old 03-09-2019, 11:57 AM   #35
pianoman
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When to use best of last three

I use RDSS but I export to Thoromation 2A. I am more confident with the output from this software. I find from the tracks that I wager that if I use the best of last three on “higher class” races it works like a charm. For lower quality races I rarely go back more than two lines and prefer to stick with the last paceline. I’ve enjoyed the posts on this thread. Thanks.
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