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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 12-02-2009, 08:34 PM   #1
Bill V.
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Woodbine 12/2 race 6

The 4 horse looks strong as a possible
wire to wire winner
I have been working on a hiding move
that so far is working very well -and mostly
in longer races My sample is way to small
to do anything more do some live test

my 5 contenders are the 2 5 4 6 7
and basically using the Val mode That is the order of BLBl

what I have been work on is to hide to the top 5 primary line score
and total energy
The with 5 horse go to the segments screen
I then find the 0-0 horse in the second panel of the computed beaten lenghts
any horse that is rated worse than this horse
in the 3rd panel or 3rd fration + total pace and in Vall mode
generally matches the VDC readout these horse rated worse than the
0-0 sc panel horse are hid for a win bet

In race 6 at 8.5 the 4 is the 0-0 horse The 6 is the worst
horse on VDC 3rd panel so out goes the 6
when I do this the 7 becomes the 0-0 horse
and now this takes out the 4

I'm left with 2 5 and 7
ML odds say win bet the 2 and 5
the 7 will be over them in an exacta side bet
or maybe a 3 horse win bet

the sample is very small but I think i see something
Bill
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Last edited by Bill V.; 12-09-2009 at 07:01 AM.
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Old 12-02-2009, 09:37 PM   #2
Eddybugsy
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What are your thoughts on the 7th?
I had a few dollars on the 5 and 1$ on the 5-4.

I have the 7 in the 7th 7,9 win bet
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Old 12-02-2009, 09:37 PM   #3
mikesal57
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Nice going Bill..#5wins at 8-1...

If possible can u do your magic showing each step with the text box

thxs mike
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Old 12-02-2009, 09:48 PM   #4
Ted Craven
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EddyB - just chiming in briefly before bedtime... What did your numbers show on Bill's race #6 (either Default or Val4 modes). Whether you follow Bill's interesting analysis, or you just cover your eyes and pick best of the last 3 similar surface and distance, it's a fairly classic example of what the Sartin Methodology does best. I don't even know why that Race #6 winner paid $19.00 - (way to go Bill V!).

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I know you've been trying to get your groove back recently, and understanding your take on that race might be instructive.

Good luck with the rest of tonight's races. It's been like Autumn up here in November and December so far, and Woodbine has had a very mild late season compared to some years where there has been snow and damnation in the last week of its meet. It will be hard to see the great racing there go to sleep for the winter after this Sunday. Enjoy it while you can!

Ted
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Old 12-02-2009, 09:50 PM   #5
Ted Craven
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EddyB - just reread you post more closely and saw you said you had the race #6 winner and the exacta - congratulations!

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Old 12-02-2009, 10:08 PM   #6
Eddybugsy
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Race WO #6
1st Nice Bill V. nothing wrong with a $19 horse.
Mike, No magic
May contenders in BL order were 6,5,2,4 I went deep with the pace lineon 6 because he liked the distance (I shouldn't have) so the 5 was the 2nd horse of the two horse bet.
The 5 was the 2nd choice BL, VDC it was also #1 DCL, LPR. I played an exacta box 5 with the 4 because the 4 was #1 EPR.
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Old 12-03-2009, 01:47 AM   #7
Bill V.
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Sartin

Quote:
Whether you follow Bill's interesting analysis, or you just cover your eyes and pick best of the last 3 similar surface and distance, it's a fairly classic example of what the Sartin Methodology does best. I don't even know why that Race #6 winner paid $19.00 - (way to go Bill V!).
Thanks Ted

It really did turn out well. This race seems like something you could
see in the follow up.

Quote:
I don't even know why that Race #6 winner paid $19.00
The 4 had it all best speed, top class, lone speed, lone early
visual early running style

But after I picked what I thouht was the correct line .
That is the best of last three comperable distance surface
and hid down to the top 5 primary line score and total energy

The VDC readout validated what BLBL said . Val 4 said that
3 horses had a better win chance than a horse that "should"
win. It doesn't happen every time but it happens enough
for me to make a profit
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Old 12-03-2009, 03:35 AM   #8
Bill V.
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Little Rock

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57 View Post
Nice going Bill..#5wins at 8-1...

If possible can u do your magic showing each step with the text box

thxs mike
Thank you Mike
Hello from Little Rock AR.
I will do another race with the notes
I want to test this live

Basic method
pick best of last 3
hide down to the to 5 primary line score
and total enery
go to the segments screen
look for the horse that is rated 0.0 on the SC
box of the segments screen in the computed beaten lenghts
Not the horse that breaks the line at the 2F box
like the Designated palce horse in Thoromation
The Key is the 0.0 horse in the 2f box

here is what I mean an example race
see the notes box
I have no idea why this is working but so far it is
I will keep testing it .Maybe Ted can figure out why it works
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Last edited by Bill V.; 12-09-2009 at 07:02 AM.
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Old 12-03-2009, 08:55 AM   #9
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eddybugsy View Post
What are your thoughts on the 7th?
I had a few dollars on the 5 and 1$ on the 5-4.

I have the 7 in the 7th 7,9 win bet
Another winnah! Nicely done EddyB. With the #7 closing at 3.60-1 and the #9 at 5.65 - 1, you were looking at a net odds range on your 2 horse bet of 1.80 -1 to 2.80-1. Not bad, depending on your hit rate. The favourite #1 (9/5) was not too worrisome as (if your analysis looked anything like mine), the 2 win bet horses ranked higher anyway. Including the favourite (anyway, still ranked #3) in a $12 exacta box, nets you the equivalent of 2-1 odds for the $36.50 payoff.

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Old 12-03-2009, 09:30 AM   #10
RichieP
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Thumbs up V/DC van going cross country baby!

You laid it out beautifully here Bill!

Thank you
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