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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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12-02-2009, 08:34 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Woodbine 12/2 race 6
The 4 horse looks strong as a possible
wire to wire winner I have been working on a hiding move that so far is working very well -and mostly in longer races My sample is way to small to do anything more do some live test my 5 contenders are the 2 5 4 6 7 and basically using the Val mode That is the order of BLBl what I have been work on is to hide to the top 5 primary line score and total energy The with 5 horse go to the segments screen I then find the 0-0 horse in the second panel of the computed beaten lenghts any horse that is rated worse than this horse in the 3rd panel or 3rd fration + total pace and in Vall mode generally matches the VDC readout these horse rated worse than the 0-0 sc panel horse are hid for a win bet In race 6 at 8.5 the 4 is the 0-0 horse The 6 is the worst horse on VDC 3rd panel so out goes the 6 when I do this the 7 becomes the 0-0 horse and now this takes out the 4 I'm left with 2 5 and 7 ML odds say win bet the 2 and 5 the 7 will be over them in an exacta side bet or maybe a 3 horse win bet the sample is very small but I think i see something Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 12-09-2009 at 07:01 AM. |
12-02-2009, 09:37 PM | #2 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 32
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What are your thoughts on the 7th?
I had a few dollars on the 5 and 1$ on the 5-4. I have the 7 in the 7th 7,9 win bet |
12-02-2009, 09:37 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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Nice going Bill..#5wins at 8-1...
If possible can u do your magic showing each step with the text box thxs mike
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
12-02-2009, 09:48 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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EddyB - just chiming in briefly before bedtime... What did your numbers show on Bill's race #6 (either Default or Val4 modes). Whether you follow Bill's interesting analysis, or you just cover your eyes and pick best of the last 3 similar surface and distance, it's a fairly classic example of what the Sartin Methodology does best. I don't even know why that Race #6 winner paid $19.00 - (way to go Bill V!).
I know you've been trying to get your groove back recently, and understanding your take on that race might be instructive. Good luck with the rest of tonight's races. It's been like Autumn up here in November and December so far, and Woodbine has had a very mild late season compared to some years where there has been snow and damnation in the last week of its meet. It will be hard to see the great racing there go to sleep for the winter after this Sunday. Enjoy it while you can! Ted
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12-02-2009, 09:50 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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EddyB - just reread you post more closely and saw you said you had the race #6 winner and the exacta - congratulations!
Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
12-02-2009, 10:08 PM | #6 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 32
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Race WO #6
1st Nice Bill V. nothing wrong with a $19 horse. Mike, No magic May contenders in BL order were 6,5,2,4 I went deep with the pace lineon 6 because he liked the distance (I shouldn't have) so the 5 was the 2nd horse of the two horse bet. The 5 was the 2nd choice BL, VDC it was also #1 DCL, LPR. I played an exacta box 5 with the 4 because the 4 was #1 EPR. |
12-03-2009, 01:47 AM | #7 | ||
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Sartin
Quote:
It really did turn out well. This race seems like something you could see in the follow up. Quote:
visual early running style But after I picked what I thouht was the correct line . That is the best of last three comperable distance surface and hid down to the top 5 primary line score and total energy The VDC readout validated what BLBL said . Val 4 said that 3 horses had a better win chance than a horse that "should" win. It doesn't happen every time but it happens enough for me to make a profit |
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12-03-2009, 03:35 AM | #8 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Little Rock
Quote:
Hello from Little Rock AR. I will do another race with the notes I want to test this live Basic method pick best of last 3 hide down to the to 5 primary line score and total enery go to the segments screen look for the horse that is rated 0.0 on the SC box of the segments screen in the computed beaten lenghts Not the horse that breaks the line at the 2F box like the Designated palce horse in Thoromation The Key is the 0.0 horse in the 2f box here is what I mean an example race see the notes box I have no idea why this is working but so far it is I will keep testing it .Maybe Ted can figure out why it works Last edited by Bill V.; 12-09-2009 at 07:02 AM. |
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12-03-2009, 08:55 AM | #9 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Quote:
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 12-03-2009 at 08:58 AM. |
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12-03-2009, 09:30 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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V/DC van going cross country baby!
You laid it out beautifully here Bill!
Thank you |
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