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Hat Check - How Can We Help You? Jim 'The Hat' Bradshaw - Learn The Matchup

 
 
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Old 11-22-2008, 07:30 PM   #1
Charlie D
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Time to move on

to advanced Matching techniques, but i have a query first Richie

On a thread Hat stated something like i pick horses, not pacelines


Can you tell me what he meant by this???
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Old 11-23-2008, 01:49 PM   #2
Charlie D
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Found what he meant (i think)

Quote:
Here goes Voodoo.

When checking running styles I find a lone Early, but there isn’t any line showing where the horse won the race, but his first two calls indicate that he is a very fast horse and will get the lead in today’s race. This is the horse I pick to win the race.

If I believe the race will go other than Early I may pick another horse with a different running style and try to find a running line for this horse. So in reality I’m picking horse’s running styles and then find running lines that will make the horse the winner.

In most instances I do not know the horse's name, or the track where he last ran. The horse that is going to take the lead is the first thing I look for in today’s race and nothing else matters.


So Hat selected horses by running style and race shape and not always who was fastest


Like in Lilttle Cap thread

Is that correct Richie??
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Old 11-23-2008, 03:01 PM   #3
Bill V.
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from The Match Up 2 The 5 step Approach

Page 57 Matching Running Lines
Jim Bradshaw

Matching Running Lines

Pace line selection is one of the most important components in handicapping. If you can select the true running line, you can win most of your wagers. Remember, this is a horse race, and you must eliminate all prejudices to make The Match Up work. The horses run the race, not the jockeys or trainers.

The track has very little influence on the outcome of the race. The winner of the race is how the contenders in today's race match up against the other horses in the race.

Sure there are times that a horse may "wake up" and run better than he has ever run. This is an out of the blue behavior that can happen in horse racing, and will rarely be influenced by the trainer, jockey or the track. In isolated cases these three components may decide the outcome of the race. If you insist on relying on these elements, it is impossible to learn The Match Up. In establishing the true contenders, and proper pace line, you need to make a complete analysis of all horses past performances.

The last race is very important and we should view this race in determining current form. We do not need to use this line, but do not readily forgive bad races. LEarn to be flexible and decide what the horse can do against the other horses in the race. It is meaningless how a horse ran in his last good race because it must face a totally new situation today.

The horse has never faced this match up before, and will never face this match up again. How is today's race going to run? How is this horse going to run?

Most of the time when you have found the true contenders, you will have the winner in your top three or four horses. It is necessary to eliminate horses that do not have a chance of being in the money. The more contenders you have "picking" the winner will become more difficult.

The selection of the line that best predicts how the horse will run in today's race is the "key" in using The Match Up. Look at the total past performance to decide the best line that matches the pace and represents the running style of the horses in today's match up.

A unique way of picking running lines and contenders to make check marks, or draw lines through races that dio not represent the horse's ability. Draw lines through the past performances of the hores based on distance, surface condition and running style. In most instances the only lines left open are lines representing today's distance.

Internal fractions may be used from a route, but if there is a good sprint line, use the sprint line, because we want to know how the horse can perform in a sprint.

This gives us a clear picture of the horses chance in the race. All horses are given lines, but we can readily see that very few are really contenders. Writing down the selected line is a good way to view the pace line match up and finding the winner.

Later you will need to do this exercise mentally, so you can keep your form clean.

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Old 11-23-2008, 03:47 PM   #4
RichieP
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Bill
That was really awesome. Thank you so much for taking the time to do that!
I'm hoping maybe a "cap" or 2 might chime in for Charlie and give him THEIR feedback.

Thank you Bill
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Old 11-23-2008, 03:56 PM   #5
Charlie D
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Quote:
How is today's race going to run? How is this horse going to run?
In establishing the true contenders, and proper pace line, you need to make a complete analysis of all horses past performances.

Quote:
This gives us a clear picture of the horses chance in the race

It seems to be all about "Pictures"

Race picture - Early or OTE

Horse Picture - Position and Pace
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Old 11-25-2008, 07:43 AM   #6
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Quote:

The second race at Fair Grounds is a race I won. I decided the race was a good race to have Rich work. I have taught Rich that there are only two running styles. These style are Early, and other than Early, which makes it rather easy to determine how the race will "set up." The first step is
to decide the horse that will take the lead in the first quarter mile. The nine horse Smile Away can win only if he can go "wire to wire", and will have the lead in today’s race at 21.4. Now, can he go wire to wire today? The answer is no, because the one horse Tricky Devil has also run a 21.4 and also needs to go "wire to wire." So the race will run, other than early.

Now, which horse is closer to today’s pace? The two horse Secure Line has won from the second position in a 21.3, from the fifth position and from the third position. Secure Line is a great selection to win in a race that will run other than early.

Race Picture(OTE) horse Picture (Postition/Pace) - Winner found


*** The amazing thing is how FAST "Hat" would do these races. The most humbling experience that I have ever had regarding racing. Thank you Charlie.*** - RichieP

Last edited by RichieP; 11-26-2008 at 05:43 PM.
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Old 11-27-2008, 03:53 AM   #7
Charlie D
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Quote:
The amazing thing is how FAST "Hat" would do these races.
I think Hat's speed may have come from watching and working thousands of races.

Names of horses change, but each race has actually been run many times before and Hat had seen it and stored it

Pattern recognition
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