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Old 06-06-2018, 02:17 PM   #1
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Woodbine picks for 6 Jun.18

WO 6 Jun. 18

Before scratches and changes.
1st 5-6-1-7 # 5 went from a 10% trainer to a30% trainer, will improve just a question of when, trainer is 39% off layoffs and 31% 1st off claim, has run well on turf before and today returnsto a more favorable distance. # 1 sharp & drops to more favorable conditions, # 6 returns to best dis. & surface after sharp return fromlayoff. # 1 returns to turf with much needed drop but has caught a tough field,#7 looking at Line 1 & 10 this horse is a better sprinter than a router,raced in 6 route races, excellent speed at two 5 F races and may need longer 6 Ftoday, can rate and close on field of lots of speed, may destroy EX. with place or win, 12-1 odds.


2nd 4-7-8-1 # 4 towers over this field, # 7 last prep,returns to better dis. & surface of best SR, # 8 unknown only 1 turf, could be anything, #1 returns to turf route and only two tries, since those has improved with blinkers back on, last two probably preps waiting for turf course to open for meet after winter closing. # 4 will probably be bet down to favorite, race could be a big price winner.


3rd Maiden with several unknown factors. Only a small fun bet here. I see this track has .20 D D & P 3 so at those prices why not a fun bet 6-1-7 # 6 FTS OK, if these aren’t liked throw a dart at anything as it would be as good as my WAG (wild ass guess) looking for something that will pay at least $14.00


4th 8-3-1-2 Maiden Clm. Not a race to bet big on as it has two unknown factors in it, # 5 Unknown factor gets B on today and trainer is 27% first time B on, # 7 Unknown factor has a trainer change who has good stats also is owner so probably purchased it privately. This is a pretty straight forward race but these two unknown factors destroy it in a very cheap race. Tread lightly in this one. There is risk reward here for the 5 & 7 as their both 20-1.


5th 4-3-6-5 the conditions of this race favor the 4-3-5 as the others are all older with 30 starts or so and never won 3 races lifetime. # 4 declining SR in last two but that was before layoff and first after layoff so needed last. # 3 has changed running style in last 4 and improved, #6 has won last two and steps up today going from restricted races to open company and an old form cycle. Won last two from dropping in class and actual class level is still unknown at this point, can he win 3 in a row? Not likening the 7-2 odds for the risk and he figures to be bet down. The 6 kind of ruins a decent race with too many contenders. Maybe a scratch will help. Trending lightly in this one also.


6th 6-4-8-9 # 6last is a toss, looks like they tried to rate for distance and it spit the bit,also looks like this horse is taking a suspicious drop however if you consider the claiming price(8,000) & the purse its more than 16,000 if he was claimed from a higher race, plus this trainer is 38% down two classes and apositive ROI. OK, he’ll be bet down and not a win bet but can’t be ignored foran EX. or DD he's OK. # 4 improved from claim and won 3 of last 4 fresh and new cycle, # 8 new cycle, sharp & consistent, # 9 6 F better distance, sharp & new cycle, competitive this level.


7th MC 32,000 3-4-5-10 this race has four FTS and two first time Lasix, Risky, risky, risky PASS # 7 best horse but coming off a 6 mo. Layoff and trainer is only 7% off layoffs, also taking a huge drop for a 3 yr. old ??, workouts seem ok but low odds of 3-1 don’t justify the risk on this one. With this many UNKNOWN factors the only way to approach this is to seek a price. I wouldn’t take less than 9-1 if trying to hook up a DD. Possible prices for small DD hook up with 3-4-5-10.



This is one challenging card. Trainers at this track all seem to run their horses on both Turf and SYN and also run them in both sprints and routes. This makes for some problems, especially for picking pace lines and contenders. Normally I consider Syn and turf interchangeable lines and the same but I did find several horses that excelled or preferred one over the other and chose some lines based on that. Same with looking at distance for lines to stay within ½ F preferably and no more than 1 F. Horses at this track perform well over both sprints and routes. Something you don’t find on dirt. I believe it’s because there is no kickback so they perform well on both. Even with that most of these horses perform better at either sprints or routes and determining that can make a big difference for contenders and selections.
This is my 3rd time playing WO, played it last Sunday and made a profit. Trying to help a friend is the reason for playing it.Not sure how much help I can be as this track requires a lot more local knowledge than other tracks. Prescott Idle is a piece of cake compared to thistrack.
The races I won on Sunday were races with less variables. To win here I would say it’s no problem but be very selective in your races played and especially if making your normal larger bets. Today is just an ugly card where the races don’t set up to make some serious money. So being ahead $130 from Sunday


# of Bets
Win %
$1 ROI
Wagered
Payoff
Profit/Loss
26
30.77%
+0.76
$172.20
$302.72
$+130.52
I’ll have some fun making lemonade out of lemons and see what happens. I think for teaching purposes some better races would be better lessons as far as contenders and pace lines.
Post your opinions on this track and selections and lets have some fun.
Mitch

Last edited by Mitch44; 06-06-2018 at 02:29 PM.
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Old 06-06-2018, 05:11 PM   #2
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Updates


Scratches:
1st scr. # 6
2nd scr.# 9
6th scr. # 9
7th scr. # 2,4,& 6


Mitch 44
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Old 06-06-2018, 09:57 PM   #3
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Results:


COMPLETED: a15e2-5b348 WO
#5
$1 Exacta3, 4, WT, 1none $2.00 $0.00
- $2.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 4bb1d-0ef80 WO
#5
$3 Exacta3, 4, WT, 5none $6.00 $0.00
- $6.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 275c2-ead71 WO
#5
$1 Exacta3, 4, WT, 6none $2.00 $0.00
- $2.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 495f2-883a1 WO
#5
$4 Exacta3, 4, WT, 3, 4, 5none $16.00 $0.00
- $16.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: a7716-dfa2b WO
#5
$4 Double3, 4, WT, 4, 6none $16.00 $0.00
- $16.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 6c5aa-bbda1 WO
#5
$0.60 Pick-33, 4, WT, 4, 6, 8, WT, 3, 5, 10none $10.80 $0.00
- $10.80
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 0d6a6-1afc6 WO
#4
$0.40 Pick-33, 8, WT, 3, 4, 5, WT, 4, 6, 8none $7.20 $0.00
- $7.20
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 19969-fd76d WO
#4
$1 Double1, WT, 3, 4, 5none $3.00 $0.00
- $3.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 0baf9-0bcc5 WO
#4
$4 Double3, 8, WT, 3, 4, 5none $24.00 $0.00
- $24.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: d951a-26872 WO
#4
$1 Exacta3, 8, WT, 7none $2.00 $0.00
- $2.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 964e6-165f0 WO
#4
$2 Exacta1, WT, 3, 8none $4.00 $0.00
- $4.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: e58e9-665ff WO
#4
$4 Exacta3, 8, WT, 1, 3, 8none $16.00 $0.00
- $16.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 9dc94-03935 WO
#3
$2 Win6, 7none $4.00 $0.00
- $4.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 02d78-e7df1 WO
#3
$1 Exacta6, 7, WT, 1, 3, 5, 6, 7none $8.00 $0.00
- $8.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: e1c10-5fe3d WO
#3
$0.40 Pick-31, 6, 7, WT, 1, 3, 8, WT, 3, 4, 6none $10.80 $86.80
+ $76.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 6abcd-23d02 WO
#3
$2 Double1, 6, 7, WT, 1, 3, 8none $18.00 $70.40
+ $52.40
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: f8ddc-3e4c0 WO
#2
$2 Double7, 8, WT, 1, 6, 7none $12.00 $0.00
- $12.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 9f367-f74c4 WO
#2
$2 Double4, WT, 1, 6, 7none $6.00 $0.00
- $6.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 80616-b43ba WO
#2
$3 Exacta7, 8, WT, 4, 7, 8none $12.00 $0.00
- $12.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 0b4a6-93615 WO
#2
$4 Exacta4, WT, 7, 8none $8.00 $0.00
- $8.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: e1ce4-69e8d WO
#2
$0.40 Pick-34, 7, 8, WT, 1, 6, 7, WT, 1, 3, 8none $10.80 $0.00
- $10.80
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: d9353-a0c92 WO
#1
$2 Double1, 7, WT, 7, 8none $8.00 $0.00
- $8.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: b76fa-a4462 WO
#1
$1 Exacta1, WT, 5none $1.00 $0.00
- $1.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 9dadd-87dd5 WO
#1
$1 Exacta1, WT, 7none $1.00 $0.00
- $1.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: cd2c3-d0ee9 WO
#1
$1 Exacta1, WT, 7none $1.00 $0.00
- $1.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 1f84d-a1cce WO
#1
$2 Exacta7, WT, 1, 5none $4.00 $0.00
- $4.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: ddfbc-9e960 WO
#1
$3 Exacta5, WT, 7none $3.00 $0.00
- $3.00
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Old 06-06-2018, 10:09 PM   #4
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Results

Lost two EX, one by a head bob for place and nosed in another for place, made the difference of winning & losing.Not bad overall for lots of action and an ugly card that presented few real opportunities.


Mitch44


Ended up:
Bet Return Lost
$266.20
$226.65- $39.55


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Old 06-06-2018, 10:15 PM   #5
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Sorry thought these were posted.


COMPLETED: 6ae54-7eb22 WO
#6
$0.60 Trifecta4, 6, WT, 4, 5, 6, 8, WT, 3, 4, 5, 8none $9.60 $0.00
- $9.60
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 2c79e-4bc24 WO
#6
$3 Exacta4, WT, 5, 8none $6.00 $69.45
+ $63.45
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 73692-57e3f WO
#6
$5 Exacta6, WT, 5, 8none $10.00 $0.00
- $10.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 40a91-64c15 WO
#6
$2 Double4, WT, 3, 5, 9, 10none $8.00 $0.00
- $8.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 787ea-02d1a WO
#6
$4 Double6, WT, 3, 5, 9, 10none $16.00 $0.00
- $16.00




Mitch
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Old 06-06-2018, 11:58 PM   #6
Mr.Pagine
Happy Punting
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 480
Thanks for the Woodbine Info

Mitch44,

Thanks for posting!

Happy Punting!
Jon
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