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Old 03-20-2019, 01:10 AM   #11
Jeebs
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Endgame

By the middle stages of a contest, you will be in one of three positions: top percentile of the leaderboard, middle percentile, or bottom percentile. How you play from this point forward in a live contest will usually be dictated by your position in the contest.

Remember how I discussed inflection points earlier? In poker, chips have a decreasing marginal utility. As blinds and antes go up, the size of your stack ultimately dictates your moves. In tournament poker, prominent pro Dan Harrington popularized a metric known as the “M-ratio”, which takes into account an individual player’s chip stack size, blinds and antes, and the number of players at the table. The higher the M-ratio, the more conservative you can be. However, if the M-ratio gets too low, you will be forced to gamble your chips in what would normally be a negative value situation if your stack was at full strength. A more definitive explanation of M-ratios can be found from a basic web search, or by reading Mr. Harrington’s book series “Harrington on Hold’em” which is available on Amazon and other booksellers.

In a horse racing contest, favorites have a decreased marginal utility the farther behind you are, and the later the stage of the contest. If you are in the 2nd or bottom flights on the leaderboard, favorites will only help add points to your tally, but not enough where you are able to overcome the disadvantage of playing from behind. Even if a favorite is a dreaded “mortal lock” to win, they still lose between 60-70 percent of the time. From a wagering value standpoint, unless your assessment of their winning chances is unusually high, favorites are typically a net negative proposition. You’re best served trying to fish out the horses in that 60-70 percent subset that are not favored and determine an inefficiency in the parimutuel, and subsequently, the contest market.

Horses in the middle odds range (let’s say 5-1 to 10-1) are kind of the sweet spot if you will. They have merits that are not always as obvious to the public’s eye and often go off at inflated odds due to the overzealous nature of the public supporting a favorite. For a contestant stuck in the middle and bottom tiers of the standings, these runners can be solid gold - that is, if you can catch them. Even if there are very little, if any, virtues to support such a horse on paper, following the money and taking a guess that the horse is likely to be ignored by the contest players can pay dividends. It is these middle odds runners that often pad contest scores rather than a dart throw cap odds bomb. When Rocky Balboa was hit so hard, that he saw three of his opponent, his corner’s advice was to hit the one in the middle. Since contest players can get married to chalk or cap runners, the mid price runners get overlooked.

Just like favorites, the utility of these runners diminishes near the end of a contest, especially if you only fall farther behind. Eventually, you are forced to accept as possible plays, the horses who are “super wild ass guesses” or as Mitch44 refers to them as, “SWAG” horses. These are the long odds runners that sometimes are so ignored, that they trigger a contest’s odds cap. Unless you are willing to wave a white flag, the final couple of races when you are playing from way behind is your last chance to throw caution out the window. However, the farther behind you are, the utility of the longshots can decrease based on the fact that other contestants playing from behind will be likely doing the same exact thing. If you can hit that $64 capper, expect a gaggle of players to have joined you. While you will leapfrog over many who either whiffed or simply played conservatively, those ahead of you that also tapped that horse will still be ahead of you. Unless you are super lucky and suddenly string together a run of high price or cap horses at the end, you will usually draw dead when too many people are still ahead of you. The super lucky situation of stringing those chaos horses together happens very seldom.

Now, what if you’re in the top flight? What are your options?

Stay tuned...
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Old 04-08-2019, 07:26 PM   #12
Mitch44
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Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Monkey is blind sided by blind squirrels.

The monkey wasn't happy camper after reading this summary of the free roll contest he lost Saturday. Talk about luck and Bill V.'s "its always the 4 horse" is absolutely right. What makes this even more hilarious is the Monkey's favorite numbers are 4 & 8 as I was born 8/8/44.

The below link provides the winning formula on how to win a handicapping contest.


https://blog.horsetourneys.com/2019/...5-7/#more-5375

Our laugh of the day,

Mitch44
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