Problem race Parx race 1 3/21/17

[Bill V.]

I got a couple of emails from non RDSS users about a race Jeebs posted
today in the sections area

They asked my opinion, and If i could post the PP's

The race is a CL12.5 for NON winners of 3 races lifetime
The condition of the race is always an important factor,
If you read the early follow ups, They usually start with laying out the conditions of the race



i will post the PP's

Then my notes and readouts
If you want to work the race yourself .

Good Skill
Bill

[Bill V.]

1,2,3,4,

[Bill V.]

5,6,7

[Bill V.]

8,9

[Bill V.]

First I want to thank Jeebs for posting such detailed notes about his races.
He missed this one but I think he is really improving. He does good work.
He bets awesome and seems to enjoy his skill.
A+ for effort

Two guys - Mitch and Tim Lt1 got this nice solid winner, They both are very
smart and are being rewarded fro their hard work and record keeping
A+ all around guys.

My look at this race is, since its a N3L these horses are either stuck at
this N3 level or have recently won their 2nd lifetime race

My look is based on Phase 1 I'm looking at the last line for every horse in the race as my first step, Then I adjust pace lines
after I do my + (+) and 0's


My notes

Horse 1 Early. Line 1 is a (+) This one is stuck at N3L and now moves up after a loss. It was claimed last race so the move up in class is okay Line 1.

Horse 2 No sprint form No Line only shows 2 + races, both were at 8.3 furlongs

Horse 3 No Form , No Line

Horse 4 Early. 200 day layoff Bad APV and Class. No Line

Horse 5. Presser. Claimed off a zero race after a 5 week rest ?
Line 2 is a (+) but on a sly track Not really a contender but Line 2

Horse 6. Early. Line 1 is a zero race first back after a layoff, line 2 is a + line
but on a fast -23 Sly track, then a layoff, then a zero race, It was claimed
and now drops from 20 to 12.5 This is a negative dropper I will rate this one
off line 2

Horse 7 Line 1 is a + pace line. The LRL track was fast-12 How does this compare to Parx? Line 5 is a trouble line, Its a + line but the LPR is low causing a low TPR. The comment say "Bumped gave way". Today it moves up after a win from N2L to N3L exactly what it is suppose to do .
Its a big jump but the horse is in form with 3 + races in last 4.

Horse 8 Sustained No Form Line 1 and 2 are both 0 races around a 52 day layoff. I have no other layoff lines to rate so I can only rate this horse off line 1

Horse 9 Sus, No Form 2/37 bad apv class

[Bill V.]

Contenders



Here is my Phase1 tab

The 6 and 7 have a big advantage in TPR
The 5 is next, The 6 is the negative dropper

The 8 is a counter energy

The jump from Non 2 life to Non 3 life is big but from 10 to 12.5 is a logical
advance in claiming price following a win,
In this field, against this group It had enough,
Remember what Doc wrote. Other systems rate horses, The methodology rates races.

Not really a Sartin factor but Trevor Mac is I beleive the top Jockey at
LRL and comes up with the horse to ride

[Jeebs]

Excellent post Bill. Clear and concise as always.

My post in the Selections area is a great example of "what can go wrong" when you stray from guidelines and fundamentals of paceline/contender selection and wagercapping (I'll save the latter for another thread). It is also an excellent example of how the "user driven" aspect of RDSS and the Methodology in general can get you into trouble if you abuse it and not let it work for you.

My egregious error in selecting a paceline for #2 got me in hot water. I pushed off to the side the fact that the two sprints at the bottom of the Form were underwhelming and that its overall dirt sprint record reflected this. Yet, I pressed (I stress the word "pressed" heavily!) and selected L2, thinking that perhaps the race prior to the layoff (while projected) "could" be powerful enough to cut back and win. Admittedly, alarm bells in my head went off when #2 came up as tops on BL/BL, yet I ignored said alarm bells. The bottom line is that with proper paceline selection, 25-1 shots rarely pop up as 1st tier contenders on BL/BL. They are usually 25-1 shots for a reason and the public is rarely wrong in that respect. If they make the contender cut, they will generally be in the 3rd tier or lower. This is by no means a rule, but an observation.

Simply put, there was no excuse for using #2 in there.

I stand by my choice of "No Line" for #6 and #8 given the circumstances surrounding their respective returns off layoffs and class drops. With the runner-up and show spot finishes behind #7, my decision to take a stand against (from a Win contender standpoint - intrarace exotics would have been an epic fail) proved to be the correct one.

While #7 made my final contender cut off L5, I clearly overhandicapped the horse. As you pointed out, it was making the logical jump to the next level and there was a degree of trouble in L5. That was a situation where I needed to trust the numbers and use the last line. The big number at LRL admittedly left me skeptical as it had never seen such heights prior to that performance. If the last line is a "win" line, I will typically use it, unless there is a circumstance (like the Sunday Gulfstream race I wrote about earlier in the week with the +30 DTV) that gives me cause for pause. The DTV of -12 at LRL while increasing, is relatively benign in this circumstance. Unless I have had consistent issues rating LRL shippers in past races (I have not as of yet), I needed to take the last line of #7 at face value.

Overall, as Mitch and Lt1 eloquently pointed out, this was the quintessential "problem race" from a Sartin standpoint - too many layoff and class maneuver questions to have to answer. Yet, I still handicap them to get the practice in. Unless the race is something I can't verbalize, I will do my process, place my wagers and let the race run. Yet, I will not blame my performance here on said problem race. I take full accountability for my decisions. I won't win every race, but the races I lose, I wish to lose those having made sound decisions and not egregious errors in judgment.

[Mitch44]

This race was a real challenge because of unknowns; shippers, soundness of horses and picking of pace lines was a real brain teaser.

My lines were: #1 L6,#2 L 10, #3 L 6, #4 L6, #5 L 4,#6 L 4, #7 L1,#8 L3,#9 L 2
As you can see my line picks and Bill's really vary, but this is a perfect example of what the "Doc" said ;" many times horses will come up by using more than 1 line." Therefore you can be wrong and still get the horse. My suggestion on pace lines is be consistent for all races all the time. Don't change it for this or that horse or this or that race. Only after the race will you be able to evaluate your line choices. Consistent procedure!!!!!!The #3 & 3 I used a route line and the route I chose was the one with the fastest internal times because of todays cutting back to 6F. If your going to put him in there give it every chance to win.

I eliminated the #5,#2, #1 and #9 as contenders. One note on the #5 & #7 they are both shipping from LRL and the 5 comes up way below the #7 on Tot. Energy & CPR also on BLBL, Toss!!! I trust the program to make the track to track adjustment and the adjustment of the #7 from 7F to 6F. The #4 I was worried about its soundness but reviewed its workout pattern and ratings in RDSS and figured it to be sound. The #9 had the worse turn time in the primary factors. Toss! He got 4th and may have beaten me but I made the decision to toss him despite many times these kind of horses can get in the money.
My two top counter energy horses were 3 & 8 so I constructed a small $.50 Tri. with them in the show position. Neither was a threat to win, I just needed two of my top 3 to be 1st & 2nd. Key question was ;"how can I make money out of this race." I made a post before about that question.

Bill V. just got home or would have had the winner and perhaps the ex. Do what you always do and be consistent, particularly on contenders and line picking.
Mitch44