Race 6 CD Best Line

[Bill V.]

Which is the "best" line

This is the winner of race 6 yesterday at CD it paid $14.20 to win
I used line 3 as it was a plus race at 6.0
same distance but from RP


Using line 2 the horse ranked 3rd on BLBL
Using line 3 puts the horse tied with the 3 for 2nd




My thoughts are both lines could be used
but line 2 might be better here,
Why Bill ? Line 3 rates the horse better
Well yes but Doc writes about horses in the top 3
being equal a decision must be made of which horse
to bet.

lets look at horse 6
look at its Early late numbers and its EPR and TPR numbers
which line most represents the horses normal ability
Is line 3 a bit more early than the other races ?
Other than the Kentucky Derby I never bet races from CD
but I do think it tends to favor late energy

Line 2 perhaps than would be the better line in this race

No matter I bet the 3 and 6 I bet against horse 11 as I
went to line 5 the fast line over line 1 on the slop
but this was enough of a question mark in my mind to bet against the 11

[5Chalky5]

Bill -

When picking contenders and pacelines do always look at the Original tab and TPR+E/L tab?

Kyle

[Bill V.]

Hi 5Chalky5

Yes, the way I set up the screen with the original on top and the TPR/Early Late
underneath gives me a good picture of the horses plus, plus within a zero and zero races as well as its early late running patterns
The adjusted speed ratings are over to the right so I can easily check out how each line is being adjusted

Welcome to the contest, You had two tough losses
at Santa Anita on your first day. The 7th was a tough call
You went with the 2 horse who have won races against winners the rest were only maiden winners. This horse won



Good Skill going forward
Bill

[5Chalky5]

Bill -

What do you mean by plus?

I have noticed that you have mentioned that a few times in your posts. It seems like it should be something that I should know.

Kyle

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by 5Chalky5

Bill -

What do you mean by plus?

I have noticed that you have mentioned that a few times in your posts. It seems like it should be something that I should know.

Kyle

Hi Kyle
There are a few post about the plus + , or plus within a zero (+)
or zero races
Here is one

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...97&postcount=1


The nice thing is Ted has color coded the plus races

Here is a post I made a little while ago and the video
might help you understand what I'm talking about
with plus races. Here is the link

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...98&postcount=1

[For The Lead]

I want to stay on track here with the +, 0 and (+). That’s a PLUS, ZERO or PLUS WITHIN A ZERO.

I think this is a great tool, as long as it is used properly, because it shows you the “usable” pacelines. In addition to that, it forces the user to actually read each running line, which familiarizes the user with the horse.

The first thing that is needed is a description of what each symbol stands for.
+ = any race where the horse ran, 1st, 2nd or 3rd, regardless of style.
(+) = any race where the horse shows one of the following
A – showed good early form by being 1st or 2nd at the first and/or 2nd calls, even if it faded down the stretch
B – any race where the horse made a good middle move (that’s call 1 to call 2) gaining in lengths and being within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call, even if it faded down the stretch
0 = any other line

There may be those that disagree with this assessment, but I urge you to look at lines that fit this description and I think you will find that lines that fit this description ARE the formful races you want and need.

The best definition I can offer for a “usable” line is;
“any line where the horse shows it had an impact on the outcome of the race”
The most important words here are “had an impact on the outcome of the race”.

Obviously a horse that finished 1st,2nd or 3rd had an impact on the outcome of the race and was trying to win the race
Any horse that is running 1st or 2nd at the first and/or second calls are obviously having an impact on the race, even if they fade down the stretch.
Horses that show they make a good middle move, as noted above, are impacting the race at the second call, even if they fade down the stretch. Generally, these types of lines will show the horse moving into 2nd or 3rd position or even taking the lead at the second call and then fading down the stretch.

I have attached several pacelines that were used in the October contest. These are NOT the only lines like these that were used by contestants during October….FAR FROM IT!
Naturally, I did not review each horse to see if a better line "+ or (+)" was available. It really doesn’t matter. The point here is to show what paceline WAS USED and that it would be in your best interest NOT TO USE lines like these.

[5Chalky5]

For the Lead -

Thank for the explanation. I am still trying to figure out how to best use RDSS and this will help.

Kyle

[cody]

Hi Bill,I am new here and hope you could clarify something for me.In past post I thought you stated you use the last line for each horse to pick your five contenders.If you use the 6 horses last line he is dead last in cpr,I do not mean this to be critical,I am just trying to learn something like when you ignore the last line.

Thanks
Cody

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by cody

Hi Bill,I am new here and hope you could clarify something for me.In past post I thought you stated you use the last line for each horse to pick your five contenders.If you use the 6 horses last line he is dead last in cpr,I do not mean this to be critical,I am just trying to learn something like when you ignore the last line.

Thanks
Cody

Hello Cody

Thank you for bringing up this point. As It happens this way now and then

first off you are correct here is the last line for every horse
and you are correct the winner # 6 is ranked last



so If we go with the last line for all the horses We lose the race

However lets refer back to the pace line manual
and refer to a recent post by FTL
Always Use The Last Line Unless****



So whats the story with # 6 well to me the last line excuses are wrong distance, wrong surface, class too high ,
and first try over the KEE track this cureent meet

Now I start from the 1 horse follow these Paceline manual quide lines
Its also good to do your Plus Pluswithin a zero and zero races at this point

Then run TPR for these lines

Here are my notes for the race
after I picked the lines noted here
I THEN took the top 5 TPR as contenders



your top 5 TPR are very good contenders

BTW in most races the winner will be in the top 5 off its last line TPR
even before you go through each horse
RDSS makes it very easy to check this
I check this every race I see posted for the contest

[5Chalky5]

Bill -

Do you think I have chosen the proper running line for the horse below?



I did not use the last race, because it was on a wf track. It did make a positive move in the race so to me it showed some signs of life and kept him as a contender.

The 4th back seemed like the best one since it does look as if he will be able to make the lead based on velocity of the horse.

Kyle