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Breeders' Cup 2017 Del Mar Nov 3 & 4

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Old 11-08-2017, 10:09 AM   #1
Mitch44
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Speed Ratings

I found this to be interesting following the BC races for 2017.

Speed Ratings given:


Beyer Bris Equipbase
Gun Runner 117 113 131
Talismanic 108 121 126


Note: No TracKMaster ratings are given because I couldn't find any published.

Beyer gave a 108 to all three top finishers for the 1 1/2 mile turf race that Talismanic won and the race didn't end in a dead heat. Say What? Yes that's correct. Not sure how that can happen but obviously incorrect. Talismanic was just shy of breaking a 47 year old track record if I heard the commentator correctly. Short by a few 100's ,way less than a 1/5. Also a 4 yr. old on the improve his last couple of races therefore I believe the Bris to be more accurate.

Its not unusual for the Bris and Beyer numbers to be different by 3 or 4 but the problem is their not consistently off in one direction . One time their 3 less and another 3 more.

I was asked about the TrackMaster SR but couldn't give any information because I never use them . Perhaps some one on this site can comment on them for those interested in them.



One of the problems with the Beyer ratings is there are too many fingers in the pie because their made up by several different individuals and they often huddle up when not sure on a particular race, especially a big race. I'll predict here and now they'll change the Talismanic SR but its doubtful at best they'll publicize it much.

All these fingers in the pie is one reason I've never liked them. Additionally Sartin studied them and found they didn't hold up against the DRF SR + Variant which at the time we were using to pick pace lines. There are even better tools now within RDSS with the Preceptor.


I have used Bris SR for many years and have found them to be very good. They are generated by a computer program so their very consistent. Even Sartin said any number can be used ( such as for a beaten length) as long as it is used consistently without deviation. And that's precisely what you get with the computer driven Bris SR.

I don't have a horse in this race as far as Bris products but I do when it comes to analyzing horses within a race that I handicap and betting. I have found the combination of RDSS and Bris PP's to be deadly as compared to other products.



Take every edge you can get.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 11-08-2017 at 10:15 AM.
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Old 11-08-2017, 10:20 AM   #2
Lt1
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Sports Stats a Vegas company did a survey on the DRF+SV speed rating trying to prove Doc wrong. They couldn't. Folks can go to follow up #81 and see the results in the publishers section or can go to the What Really Matters thread where Bill V. has reproduce it.
Tim
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Old 11-08-2017, 02:40 PM   #3
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
I found this to be interesting following the BC races for 2017.

Speed Ratings given:


Beyer Bris Equipbase
Gun Runner 117 113 131
Talismanic 108 121 126


Note: No TracKMaster ratings are given because I couldn't find any published.
Equibase Speed Ratings ARE TrackMaster Speed Ratings, and vice versa (TrackMaster makes them for Equibase). In the case of races run on foreign tracks, the Past Performance Speed Ratings are provided to Trackmaster/Equibase by TimeForm International.

Those 3 kinds of SRs (Beyer, BRIS, Equibase/TrackMastrer) are on different scales and are not directly comparable to each other, though each should be consistent within its own scale.

Per the Equibase/TrackMaster Result Chart for the race (downloaded in RDSS), the Speed Ratings were:

126 Talismanic
125 Beach Patrol
125 Highland Reel
123 Sadler's Joy

Cheers,

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 11-08-2017 at 02:43 PM.
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