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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 11-19-2017, 12:38 PM   #111
shoeless
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FTL

I was wondering if you could share your thoughts on using TPR
in the handicapping process

Shoeless
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Old 11-23-2017, 03:21 PM   #112
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FTL

One thing I have picked up from your teachings is looking at the
3rd fraction in Energy when race variegates sustained.

I have been doing races just trying to learn and it seems so far
that these horses win a high percentage

Happy Thanksgiving and Thanks for your help
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Old 11-24-2017, 01:01 PM   #113
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I think in the FU'S Doc had mentioned about betting the 3rd fraction horses
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Old 11-25-2017, 12:22 PM   #114
Bill V.
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2 fractions

Hi Jeff

This is why the EXDC and SP readouts are so powerful
The mantra of the teaching members was beware of 1 run horses

I will use a example from TPR

Modeling the EPR LPR and TPR readouts you will most likely see
your winning horses have two of the these readout being in the top 4

Here are my most recent 20 races from my Model

These are the rankings for the Winning horse and Place horse

WIN Place

Name:  win horses.PNG
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Size:  9.9 KB Name:  Place.PNG
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Size:  10.4 KB
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Old 11-25-2017, 02:26 PM   #115
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Bill

Nice work you have helped me out as always

FTL'S example using energy was a big help too otherwise I would
still be looking at that first ranking screen for sustained races

Both of you make a great teaching combo

Jeff
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Old 02-05-2018, 01:13 AM   #116
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
7 - THE 90 DAY GUIDELINE. This IS NOT a Sartin guideline. It is mine. If a horse hasn't run in 90 days I throw it out. It gets no line. When I am excusing lines, I do not go back more than 90 days. If a horse is sound and racing on a regular basis, it can run 4 or 5 times in 90 days. If you can't get a line from one of those races the horse is probably not going to win. If a horse came back after a long layoff and has just one race back, it better be a "+" or "(+)" race or it gets thrown out. The other races will be more than 90 days old.
Pizzolla has a pet term for the 2nd off the bench types with a poor race: SNAILs... “Showed Nothing After Its Layoff”... in his work, that runner gets stuck with the last line. Of course, he uses more liberal guidelines along with form patterns and other angles to try and reel in home run horses for intrarace exotics.
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Old 03-03-2018, 10:33 PM   #117
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Don't always throw out horses over 90 days. Look at how the horse matches up with other horses. Today at GP 03/03/2018. First race at 6.5 Furlongs, the number 1 horse Miss Helen is lone Early horse off for 154 days and won by 4.5 lengths and paid $12.80 to win, and the 11th race horse number 11 Hofburg with the best 2nd fraction off for 182 days, won the race and paid $17.00 to win. GP race number 14, the number 10 horse won off 98 days layoff and paid $38.40 to win.
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Old 03-04-2018, 08:47 AM   #118
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winning: You are correct and the # 1 in the 1st race was off 154 days. I had the # 1 and gave it to LT1 . To be honest with you I didn't make a dime off of it. I played it in the EX and DD and missed both. The 2nd race was a maiden and the EX the place horse #2 was no where on my radar. I took a shot because I knew the one would pay good and had a big chance.


Long layoff don't brother me and I handle them OK. This # 1 last 3 races were in routes and returned to its best distance today and the distance of its only win. It also had a new trainer who is 18% first start with trainer. Steady workout and one a bullet for the return while down in class and decent odds.

All layoff horses aren't the same and must be put into context.
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Old 03-04-2018, 10:52 AM   #119
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The only time I bet a layoff horse is if the horse won in the past off a layoff
and only with recreational/action money ...

The stats show that layoffs are a losing preposition...

Here is stats from this year and broken down by tracks...
except for 3 tracks....layoffs horses lose you money..
You can point out those winners but there will be 9 out 10 that will lose.
You can follow guidelines but if you have doubts about a race or horse..PASS IT!

Code:
****************************************************************************************
                                            WIN  WIN          WIN               PLACE   PLACE
     TRACK            PLAYS    WINS         PCT  IMPACT       ROI  PLACES         PCT     ROI
     ****************************************************************************************
     MVR                 147     20      0.1361  1.3215    1.2109    36        0.2449  0.8969  
     LRL                 137     18      0.1314  1.2759    1.1912    29        0.2117  1.0109  
     GGX                 191     19      0.0995  0.9661    1.0466    43        0.2251  0.8969  
     OPX                 486     49      0.1008  0.9787    0.8909    82        0.1687  0.657   
     FGX                 361     41      0.1136  1.103     0.8723    76        0.2105  0.7504  
     TUP                 188     21      0.1117  1.0846    0.8564    35        0.1862  0.6934  
     FON                 191     22      0.1152  1.1186    0.8304    43        0.2251  0.7754  
     CTX                 147     16      0.1088  1.0564    0.8116    26        0.1769  0.5707  
     DED                 322     29      0.0901  0.8748    0.746     57        0.177   0.6972  
     TAM                 406     42      0.1034  1.004     0.7325    87        0.2143  0.772   
     SAX                 442     48      0.1086  1.0545    0.7005    95        0.2149  0.6934  
     GPX                 643     59      0.0918  0.8914    0.6561    132       0.2053  0.7421  
     TPX                 198     18      0.0909  0.8826    0.6449    34        0.1717  0.7864  
     AQU                 221     32      0.1448  1.406     0.6335    59        0.267   0.6158  
     HOU                 279     25      0.0896  0.87      0.5473    53        0.19    0.6138  
     SUN                 215     17      0.0791  0.768     0.5251    34        0.1581  0.626   
     PHA                 105     13      0.1238  1.2021    0.4676    22        0.2095  0.7962  
     PEN                 95      8       0.0842  0.8176    0.3842    20        0.2105  0.9147  
     PMX                 29      2       0.069   0.67      0.1828    5         0.1724  0.469   
     LAX                 26      2       0.0769  0.7467    0.1615    5         0.1923  0.4     
     RIL                 55      2       0.0364  0.3534    0.1145    8         0.1455  0.2873
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Old 03-04-2018, 11:07 AM   #120
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Mike:

Is your cutoff date for layoffs 90 days or something else? Please state.

Thanks,
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