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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 03-13-2018, 12:49 PM   #11
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Weight is not a main handicapping factor.

When I joined Sartin around 1989 or 1990 one had to write a letter to be accepted. No one really knew what the Doc was looking for in that letter. Was it a psychological
profile? At the time I was a big fan of Ray Toulbot and his pace handicapping and stated so. Also of American Turf Monthly whom he wrote for. Actually at the time there were perhaps only two big racing magazines. Maybe that's why I was accepted.

By having read that magazine for many years I specifically remember reading about the winning ability of high weight horses. In conversations with LT1 he also remembers this. Were talking at least back in the 70's or so. LT1 thinks the 80's. Whenever its ancient.

So in all racing the system is based on weight. Essentially the more a horse wins the more weight it carries. Accept now a days they seldom burden a horse with weights as they did back the. Additionally there were a lot more Starter Hcp. races.

While this may be great for contenders, final decisions still have to be made because many times your left with several horses. Two handicappers may choose a different horse or two difference horses if a two horse better.

As with any separation of contenders there are questions that have to be answered. Is this high weight still the same horse that has earned that high weight? Is he running today on the same surface and distance? Does one of the lower high weights show significant improvement recently? I remember in the BC Classic I completely downgraded the best horse and favorite of Bob Baffert who I believed was over the top, it ended up out of the money. However it took a ton of money.(Arrogate) Additionally they don't pay as good as everyone sees the same thing and their often made the favorite.

Beware of betting a horse just because its the high weight.


Last edited by Mitch44; 03-13-2018 at 12:58 PM.
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Old 03-13-2018, 01:51 PM   #12
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One of the first things I learned when I began to handicap was the hi weight angle. Back in 1980s Hcp and starter hcp races were run on a regular basis. It has held up well over the years with 1 of the 3 hi weighs winning a good percentage of those races. Heck it would be a major surprise if they didn't since they are the horses that have accomplished the most of all the horses entered in the race. Like anything else nothing works 100% of the time.
Trust but verify
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Old 03-13-2018, 06:12 PM   #13
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yea....there is no excuse for stewards to take 17 minutes for an inquiry...I can understand people being upset...that was a pass race for me...I was sure those 2 would win and place....but no odds no bet....see ya
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Old 03-13-2018, 08:09 PM   #14
Bill V.
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The train wreck

They really blew it. It's not that they DQ ed.
To me Smith was stuck along the rail and that the horses were just showing their competitive hearts. Both jockeys to me were not at fault. These two were neck and neck.
Battling in a good old fashion horse race. A 17 minute delay reaks of shady behind the scene garbage.

I had Bafferts horse in my parlay so I lost a bit of money.Too bad cause I hit the other 4 legs.

I will get the next one
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