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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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08-15-2018, 07:35 AM | #11 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Horses
4 5 and 7 #6 was scratched
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08-15-2018, 09:25 PM | #12 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Westbrook, Maine
Posts: 63
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I agree with Sensei FTL, by all the readings I have so far from Pace and Cap I remember a few of the lessons. Isn't AL N1X the lowest of this class? so your horse is taking only one step up? also I was taught in the calls if the horse never reached at least 2 back of the leader don't use that line ( He did but he was in 5th after 1st call) Line 2 is best as the claim looks like it was an OPEN.
Now for the stupid part am I looking at this right or did I miss a step? |
08-16-2018, 07:12 AM | #13 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Conditions
The conditions say, non winners of 1X or non winners of 4 races lifetime,
Here is what I came up with. |
08-16-2018, 07:16 AM | #14 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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results
7 1
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08-17-2018, 12:08 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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In my view
Bill,
Being a Bradshaw advocate my reading of the horse's pps is more specific. Looking at each race at today's track, whenever this horse has run against a sub 23 first fraction he cannot win. This horse is very consistent and what you see in the various graphs you post is this fact. He is at best a Presser and when forced to chase faster 1st fractions he can't sustain this final fraction. That's to be expected because he used more energy early. Edited The answer to your question is: Use the line that approximates today's projected first call, or in Bradshaw's terms find the line with the best finish against the fastest early pace. Last edited by Bill V.; 08-17-2018 at 03:40 PM. Reason: Trying to stay focused on helping friends |
08-17-2018, 01:56 PM | #16 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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did not miss anything
Hello Mark
Excuse me but I have edited your post First how this man works races are not by class only. The guidelines analyze equal parts of Recency (form) Class, Ability = Up close positions, Particularly the break and 1st fraction and Consistency His guidelines eliminate noncontenders and noise Second. As far as what I did or as you say "missed" Perhaps you did not read the whole thread. I never worked this race. First and foremost I asked the group for their opinions on one horse Horse # 1. Why? because it was a race I happen to be looking at. I saw a pattern that I come across often, The question involved was, Should the last line be excused? You choose to wait until I posted the PP's and result chart as it looks like you assumed I lost this race, because of my flawed handicapping.and or Sartin methodology method. Phase 1. You never mention that my lines and RDSS get the very chalky winner rated right on top, The horse I posted placed, losing by 1 length Using line 2 thanks to the response given to me in this post. I never posted this example as a racing demo, I never asked, a post-mortem why I could have lost this race. It was requested that I post the entries, conditions and full PP's in a private message. This I did and was thanked privately. The PM was from a participant. And I did not feel anybody needed to download a whole card that had already been run just to help me analyze one particular horse and a pattern, in regards to excusing the last line. The posts and thread were submitted as a learning example and I feel it served the group well. Friends helping friends win Thanks, Mark for your view on the paceline I appreciate that. Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 08-17-2018 at 02:02 PM. |
08-17-2018, 02:59 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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One Approach
Bill,
I have read all of FTL's posts, some multiple times. I have great respect for his work and the hours spent handicapping and posting his work and results. I could care less that much of it is after the fact because his methods are always consistent and most of them based on original Sartin criteria. In this example, he just sited the class aspect which was a more general way of making the point I did. There was no disrespect or derision in my comment. The class factor was telling in this case as the first fractions, there for all to see without reference to any other screens showed this particular horse's weakness. When forced to chase sub 23 first fractions it uses too much energy and cannot make up the lost ground late. So depending on your projected first fraction you could easily determine whether the horse was a win contender or not. As a teaching example this was classic, unmarred by huge distance or surface switches and races over today's track. If ever there was an opportunity to handicap a race from RAW data, which I use, except on turf, this was it. Finally, it is my belief and perspective that the 1st fraction is the key to the outcome of the race. It was easy enough to quickly calculate the POR 2nd fractions and see that the last race was just too fast early for this particular animal to win. As I remember, it was the best early pace of the recent races showing. And the horse ran his race. This is a decent horse that gives good effort every time out when fit but he was merely over matched. TPR informs the user of 2nd call and final fraction and are shapshots of a point in time in the race. For long time users like yourself, that may be enough. However, for me and I have been handicapping for over 50 years, I need to look at all three fractions and see how a horse responds to different pace scenarios. As a teaching example I believe it is important that subscribers or new handicappers be exposed to different ways of looking at the races. Then they can answer the questions for themselves. It was my impression that this blog was open for the presentation of different points of view as long as they were respectful. I can't see that my post violated and announced rules. Has that changed? |
08-17-2018, 03:48 PM | #18 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thanks Mark
I really appreciate the post
Pace and Cap is always going to be open to all of the Sartin library and phases Please if you can, always feel free to work races with us and help us out with Bradshaws match up steps Good Skill Bill |
09-12-2018, 01:58 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 340
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Bill, good job. Winner didn't pay much but it looked pretty easy to come up with the exacta too.
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09-12-2018, 02:02 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 340
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Just wondering if exactas can be had using VDC? I had two nice exactas last week using Synergism too, but manual input starting to get hard on this old back. Thanks in advance.
Chuck Swope |
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