one way to handicap successfully - please review

[racer100]

Greetings to all,
I am new on this board and a young kid so I don't claim to have a lot of experience with handicapping. I gave been doing this for about 2 years now as a hobby and making some good pocket change along the way. I wanted to start this thread to show my way of handicapping and get some serious feedback from you all as the experts with Speculator and RDSS. I recently started using Speculator 1.60 and with the generous help of Mr. Craven I am making some good progress in using it. Ok lets get to business here.
The race I am showing is for the Tampa 02-06-07 and in particular race #1, #2 and especially #4. Races #1 and #2 are chaulk..I think anybody with a bit of common sense can pick those without using any program. I show a screenshot of those just for your reference so you see how my way of handicapping works. Race #4 is a good one..a $396 trifecta which is a good return for your efforts.
Along with Spec 160 I use a program called Speed Handicapper 5.0 which gives me the Carroll Speed ratings. The CS ratings are an improved version of Beyer ratings and they show what the public does not see basically. Along with those I use the Moss Pace ratings as a secondary check. I posted race #4 in the way Speed Handicapper gave it to me after picking one representative line for each horse with 100% Track Constants applied and calculated. The result speaks for itself and what my question is here for you -- how could I have handicapped this race with Spec 1.60 or RDSS to arrive at the same result? I asked Mr. Craven and he was generous enough to send me his analysis step by step which I will post here as well a bit later. First I wanted to get some feedback from you to see how I can "marry" the PPs selected with Speed Handicapper and feed them into Spec160..or can Spec160 be used to come up with the same results on its own? Please pay attention to the dates of the PP for each horse which can then be selected in the Spec160 and analysis be ran afterwards. I look forward your input and enjoy the workout!

[racer100]

Tampa Race #1 020607

[racer100]

Tampa Race #2 020607

[admin]

Hi Race100

I did race 4 from Tampa 2/6/07 with Spec160
I think it did a good job getting the winner

Here is my BLBL

My contenders and lines used were

#1. line 1
#2 line 1
#4 line 3
#5 line 1
#6 line 1
#7 line 1
#9 line 1
#10 line 3
#12 line 1

I entered these lines and calculated these contenders,
Then I eliminated the horses that were not the top 5 Total Energy or Primary Line score

[admin]

Here are my contenders before I eliminate the horses that were not
top 5 Total Energy or PRL =Primary Line Score

[racer100]

Originally Posted by admin

Here are my contenders before I eliminate the horses that were not
top 5 Total Energy or PRL =Primary Line Score

Bill would you be kind enough to post your Energy and PRL step by step reasoning for picking your lines? Ted's approach to me with Preceptor is pretty straightforward, but I would like to see your other ways of arriving at the same result just for reference. In other races the Perceptor might not work well but your approach might come to the rescue. Thanks

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by admin

#6 line 1

Bill, what happens if you use line 2 for the #6? Though still a TP Poly line, a better Primary Line Score (Perceptor screen) and a good running line.

I found that helped produce the cold trifecta Marty referred to (and which Racer found with SH software).

Ted

[racer100]

One small comment: I posted the screens of Speed Handicapper not because I view it as a superior tool to Spec160. I simply did it to show "outside the box" thinking. I don't know about you all, but if I find a tool that helps me handicap better and more directly - I will use it! Speculator is a great tool to use.
Ted Craven has been generous to walk me step by step into his way of handicapping this race. I will quote his original comments. He selected different PPs than I selected with SH but arrived at the same result. Here is his reasoning.

"#4 Murphy (Show horse) – look at the F3 panel in Spec160 and observe the Perceptor 1 Total rank for recent turf lines. Line #3 is a standout."

[admin]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Bill, what happens if you use line 2 for the #6? Though still a TP Poly line, a better Primary Line Score (Perceptor screen) and a good running line.

I found that helped produce the cold trifecta Marty referred to (and which Racer found with SH software).

Ted

Hi Ted

I used the last line for a few reasons
I saw the 74 speed rating and the 79 for line two
my gut told me that since this was a turf race
Horse 6 showed nothing in its only turf try
I ran the APV Class ratings from EXDC
I will list all the horses in my step by step post
But I will tell you horse 6 was the lowest APV 65.5% and Its class
rating was 2nd lowest at .99 (#2 had .92)
I have been hearing about the TP poly lines being too fast
I figured that horse 6 just won on that surface at that 8.5 distance
and only got a 74 speed rating. I just had picked a 82 for horse 5
So with the poor apv and CR and the win at the same distance
and a question about the horse on the turf I didn't want to give the 6 too much help. I would have lost the trifecta but I really don't think about them anyway


that i had read that the TP lines were too fast

[Zaf]

Originally Posted by admin

Hi Race100

My contenders and lines used were

#1. line 1
#2 line 1
#4 line 3
#5 line 1
#6 line 1
#7 line 1
#9 line 1
#10 line 3
#12 line 1

Using the above lines here is what HTR came up with in the MaxVel Module. Variant 2 option (raw times). :