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Old 05-05-2006, 06:33 PM   #1
Turbulator
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Questions About the Kentucky Derby

I downloaded the card and started handicapping. I noticed some things right away. First of all the speed ratings, even for graded stakes races are lower. Some are in the 70s. I don't get this. Don't the speed ratings ever go up into the nineties and hundreds? You'd think in the better races you'd have higher numbers.

Do you only use graded stakes races in your paceline selections?

Do you try to get as close to the distance as possible, or do you go with the best, recent graded stakes numbers?

I've seen mention of "Doc's" criteria for playing the Derby. What is Doc's criteria?

Thanks,

Steve
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Old 05-05-2006, 06:53 PM   #2
Ted Craven
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Steve,

The program-calculated SRs in Speculator start at 90 and descend (Barbaro's 95 and 100 from early Turf lines are an abberation, as are the projected final times - ignore them). Other than that - they are what they are. Many people ignore them and instead use the best Perceptor I Total from up-close finishes in Spring G1 and G2 races. (You can modify this analysis by Total Energy/%Median progressions, or phase of the moon, etc, whatever your own studies prove works!)

My only recollections of Doc's recommendations, was to use good Graded Stakes results, and pay attention to 'Sustained Energy' which I believe in modern parlance would be FX or FX plus LPR.

Can anyone cite a Follow Up reference clarifying that further (or disputing the foregoing)?

Ted
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Old 05-05-2006, 08:10 PM   #3
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Derby and the Doc

Followup 87

Page 38 - he reponds to an email saying" Next year confine contenders to Grade 1 and Grade 2 winners and placers"

Same followup Page 6- He talks about keeping the early horse with the BEST CPR and FX

this followup is available for viewing courtesy of Binder here .

Richie
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Old 05-06-2006, 12:51 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
Steve,

The program-calculated SRs in Speculator start at 90 and descend (Barbaro's 95 and 100 from early Turf lines are an abberation, as are the projected final times - ignore them). Other than that - they are what they are. Many people ignore them and instead use the best Perceptor I Total from up-close finishes in Spring G1 and G2 races. (You can modify this analysis by Total Energy/%Median progressions, or phase of the moon, etc, whatever your own studies prove works!)

My only recollections of Doc's recommendations, was to use good Graded Stakes results, and pay attention to 'Sustained Energy' which I believe in modern parlance would be FX or FX plus LPR.

Can anyone cite a Follow Up reference clarifying that further (or disputing the foregoing)?

Ted

Here's a screen shot of a horse in the CD 5/6 card 7th race, which illustrates what I'm talking about. The second race back at MNR is an AL race and has a 90 speed rating with the horse finishing second. The third back is a stakes at TP with an 83--the horse came second. In the last race the horse finishes fourth in a graded stakes at KEE with a speed rating of 67.

Do you just have to know when these are abberations, or is it just a guess? I still don't understand why the difference.

Things like this make it very difficult to pick pace lines, especially when some horses have graded stakes races and others don't.

I never used to use speed ratings in my handicapping. I virtually ignored them. I hated them.

Is it any coincidence that my top rated horses in BL/BL 98% of the time are in descending order of speed rating?

Something doesn't feel right here. If it were simply a matter of speed ratings, then isn't that an over emphasis of final time?
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Last edited by Turbulator; 05-06-2006 at 12:54 AM.
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Old 05-06-2006, 05:58 AM   #5
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Follow ups

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP
Followup 87

Page 38 - he reponds to an email saying" Next year confine contenders to Grade 1 and Grade 2 winners and placers"

Same followup Page 6- He talks about keeping the early horse with the BEST CPR and FX

this followup is available for viewing courtesy of Binder here .

Richie
Thanks Rich for digging up these Kentucky Derby References

Here is a link to Follow Up 87
http://www.bindfold.com/images/followup_87.pdf
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Old 05-06-2006, 07:58 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulator
Here's a screen shot of a horse in the CD 5/6 card 7th race, which illustrates what I'm talking about. The second race back at MNR is an AL race and has a 90 speed rating with the horse finishing second. The third back is a stakes at TP with an 83--the horse came second. In the last race the horse finishes fourth in a graded stakes at KEE with a speed rating of 67.

Do you just have to know when these are abberations, or is it just a guess? I still don't understand why the difference.

Things like this make it very difficult to pick pace lines, especially when some horses have graded stakes races and others don't.

I never used to use speed ratings in my handicapping. I virtually ignored them. I hated them.

Is it any coincidence that my top rated horses in BL/BL 98% of the time are in descending order of speed rating?

Something doesn't feel right here. If it were simply a matter of speed ratings, then isn't that an over emphasis of final time?

If something doesn't "feel" right then why fight the feeling? Go with what your "gut" is telling you.

Then as a feedback mechanism and reality check keep RECORDS of how your instinctual line selection did against say an "application style" selection of best of last 3 at distance/ surface . You can set a number of days as far as what u will go back to grab a line etc etc BUT compare this with what you do.

The only way to know for SURE is by keeping records. Anything less is just guessing.

Richie
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Old 05-06-2006, 09:33 AM   #7
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Steve,

The program calculated Speed Ratings are only ratings of Final Time, not a composite measure of incremental energy disbursement (that would be Total Perceptor I, or Primary Line Score). SR is not used in the various compound factor calculations, so my advice would be to only use it as a quick eyeball scan for the relative merits of a paceline. Instead, try Total Perceptor I (F3 screen) or Total Energy (F4 screen), tempered by your analysis of current form. Be careful of using a best ever, unduplicated SR, say, from an oddball track, or dissimilar distance/surface.

That said, consider your example of Saintly Look, using the F2 Original TrackMaster data view (below). SRs are a measure of final time only - track and race class are not considered. The call times in the Equalized, Normalized Adjusted panel are normalized to today's distance, or 7 furlongs for CD 05/06 race 5.

Line 1 final time was 125.5 (slow) and the horse was beaten 4.3 lengths, plus the Daily Track Variant was very fast (-22) thus a slow SR of 67 (Doesn't matter a bit that it was a G2 race or at KEE)

Line 2 final time was 121.5 (fast) normalized from 6f, beaten 1.3, hence a fast SR of 90 (again, doesn't matter the track, MNR, or race class)

Line 3 was 123.1 (in between lines 1 and 2) normalized from 6.5, with a very slow DTV (22).

The Speed Ratings thus line up with the final times as normalized to 7f (today's distance), then modified by final beaten lengths and Daily Track Variant. It's up to you to decide regarding the MNR allowance race (for example), given the calibre of competition it likely could face at MNR and the different energy demands from that oval, whether that best ever 90 SR represents how it will perform in today's G2 competition... I note that TrackMaster thinks it ran a 113 SR in 3 of its last 4 races. I myself might use its 3rd line as being its best of last 3 Perceptor I Total ranking from similar distances, and not out of range with computed SRs it has shown capable of. The horse did finish 4th of 12 in a G2 race 3 weeks ago, running evenly, but that last paceline will likely not represent it favourably today.

Re BL/BL lining up roughly in descending order of SR, I know of no models which show profitable results merely by betting top ranked or top 2 ranked BL/BL (or SR) - incremental energy disbursement and the particular demands of a given track/surface/distance combination (the relevant factors revealed by your models) should rather point the way to wins and then profits.

Hope this helps, Steve.

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-06-2006 at 09:44 AM.
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Old 05-06-2006, 12:30 PM   #8
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Thanks Richie and Ted. I've printed out your post Ted, and I'll be studying it today. Thanks again.

Steve
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