|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Search | Today's Posts | Mark Forums Read
Speculator Speculator - FAQs, Technical Support, Examples, etc |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
05-07-2006, 06:34 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
|
2nd Race Churchill Downs
I thought long and hard about which pace line to use (if any) for this horse yesterday. In the end I decided that since he was 1 for 21, hadn't previously won after a long layoff, or is first ever race, and the fact he had been off 224 days--I just wouldn't rate him. He won.
If you do decide to rate him off off his fourth, fifth or sixth race back, throwing out the fourth back because of the wet-fast track--he rates right on top. If you use the W/F line he rates second. Did anybody else play this race? How did/would you handle this horse? Thanks, Steve |
05-07-2006, 05:40 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 708
|
Don't leave out layoff unless they are less than 4/1. Make it a habit since too many horses are over-raced these days. Also was this a nonwinners 2 lifetime race??
__________________
velocititian Last edited by tompkins; 05-07-2006 at 05:53 PM. |
05-08-2006, 12:28 AM | #3 | |
Administrator
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
|
all non early
To Richie
It took me a while I found on a sprint race were the top 5 contenders are all non early esp Funny thing about this race Steve your original comment Quote:
all around me at the Meadowlands |
|
05-08-2006, 05:24 AM | #4 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Norman, OK
Posts: 387
|
Quote:
The horse had a good jockey, good trainer, 4 workouts in the last month with a 5 furlong work and a short one showing speed further back in the series. The 22 races scared me, but somebody must have thought something of the horse because it didn't show a run for a claim. The main factor though was the generous odds and the fact that it looked better than this field back when it was running with problems. When it came through late in the stretch I felt like a brilliant handicapper. Unfortunately, there were very few other moments of brilliance during the day. Dick... Last edited by socantra; 05-08-2006 at 05:32 AM. |
|
05-08-2006, 09:42 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
|
There are four days a year I assume every horse entered is well meant -- the trainer intends to win. No horse is a throw out based on recency.
Those are the three Triple Crown days and The Breeder's Cup. I did a double take when I saw the Spec view of this horse as I remembered him from Val. The whole "Gestalt" of the horse is different as you can see by the image below. He doesn't even look like the same animal. I wound up throwing this horse out, but not for recency. I won't mention why I made him a non-contender as I was obviously wrong, and you'd have to see the other entrants via Val anyway. Last edited by alydar_ David; 05-08-2006 at 09:45 AM. |
05-08-2006, 09:43 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
|
The automatic paceline selector -- F6 -- prefers the last race.
|
05-08-2006, 10:22 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Norman, OK
Posts: 387
|
The programs seem to handle the various lines very differently indeed. How did the 5th line back look? I used it to get the horse back to CD, since current form was not an issue anyway. Here's how the various lines looked in BL/BL from Spandx:
|
05-08-2006, 11:11 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
|
Val had the fifth race back tied with the last race via F6.
|
05-08-2006, 12:09 PM | #9 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
|
Quote:
Same races, but the speed ratings are from another universe. Are they not coming from Trackmaster? Is Val computing them in some different way? Must be. Thanks, Steve |
|
05-08-2006, 12:36 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
|
Steve, check out these links, especially the second one.
http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1091 http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?t=666 |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Churchill Downs results | Houndog | General Discussion | 0 | 05-01-2006 09:00 PM |
FG @ LaD -- Thursday, Dec. 22 | alydar_ David | Selections | 1 | 12-22-2005 09:01 PM |
MNR -- Tuesday, November 1 | alydar_ David | Selections | 1 | 11-01-2005 11:18 PM |
MNR -- Tuesday, August 9, 2005 | alydar_ David | Selections | 1 | 08-10-2005 10:29 AM |
Saturday 0716 | Binder | Selections | 0 | 07-16-2005 03:52 AM |