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Old 02-08-2007, 11:49 AM   #21
Ted Craven
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Here you go. (I keep this link handy: http://www.tsnhorse.com/cgi-bin/inst...f.cgi?type=inc)
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Old 02-08-2007, 12:33 PM   #22
racer100
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results for TAM 020607 race #4

results for TAM 020607 race #4
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Old 02-08-2007, 05:09 PM   #23
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last line

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Bill, what happens if you use line 2 for the #6? Though still a TP Poly line, a better Primary Line Score (Perceptor screen) and a good running line.

I found that helped produce the cold trifecta Marty referred to (and which Racer found with SH software).

Ted
Hi Ted

I used the last line for a few reasons
I saw the 74 speed rating and the 79 for line two
my gut told me that since this was a turf race
Horse 6 showed nothing in its only turf try
I ran the APV Class ratings from EXDC
I will list all the horses in my step by step post
But I will tell you horse 6 was the lowest APV 65.5% and Its class
rating was 2nd lowest at .99 (#2 had .92)
I have been hearing about the TP poly lines being too fast
I figured that horse 6 just won on that surface at that 8.5 distance
and only got a 74 speed rating. I just had picked a 82 for horse 5
So with the poor apv and CR and the win at the same distance
and a question about the horse on the turf I didn't want to give the 6 too much help. I would have lost the trifecta but I really don't think about them anyway


that i had read that the TP lines were too fast
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Old 02-08-2007, 05:42 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by racer100 View Post
Bill would you be kind enough to post your Energy and PRL step by step reasoning for picking your lines? Ted's approach to me with Preceptor is pretty straightforward, but I would like to see your other ways of arriving at the same result just for reference. In other races the Perceptor might not work well but your approach might come to the rescue. Thanks
Hi racer100

I will do a step by step how I would use spec 160 for this race
As I told Ted in my earlier post on this thread I would have missed the
Trifecta because I use what I felt was the best line for horse 6
if I use line 2 I would have had the trifecta on top

The way I use Spec160 is the same as I used Validator 2 and 3
and Valm hand entry
I do my APV Class ratings first , Then I pick the best line of my contenders last 3 or 4 pacelines I use the APV /CR to determine
how much I want to go back for a horse but generally I use the highest
Speed rating of the last 3 -4 races I try to use the same track
and distance On Spec160 I only look at the Adjusted Normalize Equlized
screen . After I pick my pacelines I hide any horse that is not one of the top 5 Total Energy horses and top 5 Primary line score
On Spec160 I have to do this from the Bottoim Line Betting line screen
On Val Doc had a screen(#3) that was used just for this important step.
when I get down to my top 5 horse I pick 2 of the top 3 horses to
bet I focus on BLBL Balance Total Energy Primary Line Score
The computer made ESP for the horse and the 2nd call beaten lenghts



Ok I will get started

First here are the APV- CR

#1) 92.5% 1,26
#2) 104.6% 0.92
#4) 214.0% 2.72
#5) 95.4% 1.53
#6) 65.6% 0.99
#7) 226.3% 2.04
#9) 76.1% 1.31
#10) 124.4% 1.56
#11) NC
#12 214.0% 2.54 -no form but lifetime turf numbers
#13 77.4% 1.03
#14) NC

I didn't do horse# 11 and 14 these are non contenders
Horse 12 I see lots of money won on the turf way back when
but not much lately so I will enter a line for the horse _

_Past Performances ________________________________________________
Here is horse 1 I used the last line
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Old 02-08-2007, 05:44 PM   #25
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Tampa 020607 race 4

Here is horse 2 I used the last line
suff turf lines are blank so its all I have
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Old 02-08-2007, 05:47 PM   #26
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Tampa race 4 020607

Horse 3 was scratched Here is horse 4
Here is were my APV CR numbers tell me its ok to go down to line 3
# 4 is 2nd bets on APV and #1 on Class rating
Line 3
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Old 02-08-2007, 05:50 PM   #27
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Tampa race 4 020607

Here is horse 5
The 82 Speed rating catches my eye as up till now everbody has been in the 70's
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Old 02-08-2007, 05:54 PM   #28
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Tampa race 4 020607

Here is horse 6 I used the last line
line 2 is better but as I don't want to help this guy
because of the poly track speed rating in a win was only 74
at the same distance 8.5 we just saw # 5 get a 82
# 6 is at the bottom on APV and CR
He ran third
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Old 02-08-2007, 05:54 PM   #29
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Tampa race 4 020607

Here is horse 7
looks a little slow but just won here and has good numbers
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Old 02-08-2007, 05:56 PM   #30
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Tampa race 4 020607

Horse 8 was out here is # 9
evryone seems to be about the same speed rating wise
so I will use the last line 70
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