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03-31-2006, 05:54 PM | #1 |
Budman
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 797
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TE & %M as a form indicator
I still am intrigued with using the various Spec outputs to determine form, particularly TE & %M. For increasing TE & %M I note in my comment line
(F9) a + for increasing TE and a + for decreasing %M, - signs for the opposites, 0 for no change, and ? for unknown. I also note if the horse is a layoff coming back or if this will be the 2nd or 3rd after a layoff. Also note last time winners and by how much (the old Scott - How will your Horse Run carry over mind set). At this point I won't mix dirt and turf but I do mix route to sprint and vice versa. Probably should not but for right now I'm gathering data to analyze later. I will run thu 3 or 4 cards for a Thursday nite at LS simucast and try to find races where I have two pluses (++) in my top 4 to 5 contenders. The tracks are Ev, Ct, Pen, TP or Hou right now. Currently my wager will be on two pluses or a 2nd or 3rd back with ??. (The ?? usually indicates that it is a betable horse - just cannot do a + or - for whatever reason.) The 2 ++ should put you on a live horse but not always. The 2 -- or a -+, +- will usuall indicate a false favorite or false mid-tier, but not always. I have managed too eliminate the top 2 or 3 tiers more than once and get a juicy payout. Last week I got the W & P and exacta on tier 4 and 5 and both were double digit odds. I have had several "ahead of the game nites" but I looked like John the Baptist last nite, so you never know and that's why its called gambling, to quote my wife. (She did get a trinket from the exacta for putting up with me). I will be looking at refining these form indicators, I hope, and will also share what comes out of the hopper. QUESTION in all of this! Anybody got any insight that they want to share as I just as soon not reinvent the wheel? Thanks, Bud PS Lone Star starts live in 13 days and I can't wait to see the pretty Texas girls in those short cut-off Levi's, smell the horses, cash some tickets and drink some cold, cold beer. Remember the Alamo! |
04-01-2006, 08:23 AM | #2 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Quote:
Sounds interesting. You will lose all the horses that are coming off bad last races ( lots of those are the price guys) BUT you will also GAIN some solid BOMBS too! There is ALWAYS a give and take in whatever we do in racing. least thats my opinion stay cool Bud and thanx again Richie |
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04-01-2006, 09:28 AM | #3 |
Administrator
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
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One of my all time fav books
I really Loved that Book
how will your horse run today I tried your method here I happen to have these Vector Shots from a race I did at Philly over in the Club Pace and Cap area I added the + - or 0's in the Comment area in blue Here is horse 1 |
04-01-2006, 09:29 AM | #4 |
Administrator
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
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horse 2
Horse 2
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04-01-2006, 09:30 AM | #5 |
Administrator
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
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Next horse 3
Horse 3
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04-01-2006, 09:31 AM | #6 |
Administrator
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
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Horse 4
Horse 4
Last edited by admin; 04-01-2006 at 09:39 AM. |
04-01-2006, 09:32 AM | #7 |
Administrator
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Posts: 2,643
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Horse 5
Horse 5
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04-01-2006, 09:33 AM | #8 |
Administrator
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
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horse 6
Horse 6
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04-01-2006, 09:34 AM | #9 |
Administrator
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Posts: 2,643
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horse 7
horse 7
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04-01-2006, 10:49 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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[QUOTE=noddub62](F9) a + for increasing TE and a + for decreasing %M, - signs for the opposites, 0 for no change, and ? for unknown. I also note if the horse is a layoff coming back or if this will be the 2nd or 3rd after a layoff. Also note last time winners and by how much (the old Scott - How will your Horse Run carry over mind set).
Thanks, Bud Bud, Question please. How many races are you using to determine ++ or -- ?? last 2? last 3? Thanx Richie |
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