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RDSS 2.1 Racing Decision Support System - The NEW Version!

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Old 04-13-2018, 03:53 PM   #81
Old Arkie Gal
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Thanks Ted.
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Old 04-25-2018, 09:10 PM   #82
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Profit Line Discrepancies

Ted, I have noticed this problem, where Twins Spires profit line does not agree with the RDSS profit line. Happens about 1-2 times a race card and usually is just a point difference e.g. 1 becomes a 2 or vice versa. Sometimes it may be a 2 point difference. That is more problematic.
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Old 04-25-2018, 10:01 PM   #83
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Races with entries also present a problem since both parts show the same rank when in fact on the actual profit line sheet they are not. The sheet also shows what the odds should be if 1 part of the entry is a scratch.
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Old 04-26-2018, 10:44 AM   #84
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Please click on the 'expander' icon [+] on the Entries screen above the Scratch column at left to show several lines of info for each Entry. Under the PL column you can see the actual percentage probability figure supplied by TS for ProfitLine for each horse. If you hover the mouse over that number, you'll see an elaboration (probability and implied odds). RDSS simply ranks these probability numbers and uses those as the rank. If the rank shown on the TS ProfitLine screen is other than RDSS' rank, then they are ranking their ProfitLine differently than their own probability (and thus odds) numbers show. Which is fine! But inconsistent.

Which would you rather have: the rank shown by TS, or the rank computed by the probability/odds numbers given by TS?

Alas, I do not have the PL numbers for the PRX race in question above, else I could illustrate the point. If someone could email me their PRX April 23 ProfitLine downloaded file (folder C:\Rdss2.1\Data\ProfitLine\2018\20180423\20180423-PRX.htm), I will incorporate it into my readouts and repost screenshots to illustrate. Or - Pat (Old Arkie Gal), perhaps you could simply post the 'expanded' Entries screen showing that expanded ProfitLine data for the race in question and we could continue the enquiry?

Also, Tim (Lt1) if you or someone can post an example of the 'expanded' Entries screen showing where each half of a Coupled Entry has a different ProfitLine number/rank - I would be obliged.

In ANY event, my plan is to move AWAY from the detailed PL data available from the TS ProfitLine page shown above (since no one seems to pay attention to it, and when it diverges with TS' ranks, people complain) - to a simple listing of PL Odds and the resulting computed ranks (or tied ranks) which is now available without logging in to TS via the new tote system from TwinSpires Mobile (the former BRIS Supertote).

I just thought that a ProfitLine with probability = odds of 2.9-1 should be ranked higher than a PL with odds of 3-1 though they likely are both rounded to 3-1 and given the same rank. (In a similar way to how there's a difference in a DRF fifths-based time of 45.1 fifth actually being 45.39 tenths and you not knowing that it should probably be shown as 45.2 fifths but got 'rounded down' Just saying ...)

Thoughts, comments?

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Old 04-26-2018, 11:56 AM   #85
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Expanded

Hi Ted

I sent you the file from Parx 4/23 on a email.

Tim

I am not sure about what Twinspires shows on their Profit Line sheet

I never go there , I just go by what RDSS shows , so I can't comment
on any difference if both or only one half of a entry run

Here is race 2 from 4 24 Expanded


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Old 04-26-2018, 12:08 PM   #86
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Bill, could you show the Race 5 we are discussing above? Thanks.

EDIT: Never mind Bill - I got your file and will post the Race 5 expanded screen myself.

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Old 04-26-2018, 12:09 PM   #87
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Entry

Hi Tim

Here is a race from Parx on Tuesday

The 1A was scratched

Here are the RDSS screens with the 1A scratched and with the IA back in

Either way RDSS gives the entry an 18.52 % PERCENT AND A 4.4/1 ODDS

But like I posted above I never look at the twinspires PL "sheets" so I can't comment on what they show

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Old 04-26-2018, 12:23 PM   #88
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Here is the expanded screen for the race in question. Horse #3 has a slightly higher PL probability/odds value of 15.51 (rounded to 15.5) or odds of 5.4-1 compared to Horse #1 which has probability of 15.43 or odds of 5.5-1. That is why RDSS ranked the #3 as rank 2 and the #1 as rank 3, which I agree is different by 1 rank position from what is showing on the TS ProfitLine screen where BOTH are shown with ProfitLine odds of 6-1 (i.e. rounded UP) and the ranks are reversed for some reason. All these numbers come from the same TS ProfitLine screen (just under the surface). That's the technical answer for where RDSS gets its ranks.

Which numbers would you rather have?

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Here is the TwinSpires ProfitLine page shown above with slightly different ranks.



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Old 04-26-2018, 12:32 PM   #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi Tim

Here is a race from Parx on Tuesday

The 1A was scratched

Here are the RDSS screens with the 1A scratched and with the IA back in

Either way RDSS gives the entry an 18.52 % PERCENT AND A 4.4/1 ODDS

But like I posted above I never look at the twinspires PL "sheets" so I can't comment on what they show

Attachment 46106
Attachment 46107
is it possible Tim (Lt1) is looking at a DIFFERENT online ProfitLine source which displays DIFFERENT PL values for coupled entry members?

Tim - if so, can you elaborate, maybe display, the different online ProfitLine source. The source I use (the TS ProfitLine display aboe, always gives identical PL values for both horses in a coupled entry.

Again, as I mentioned above, I intend with the next update to simply fetch the PL Odds (in my above example) from the TS Mobile odds stream, and abandon the fine-grained ProfitLine probability values I have been using. Thus, in the example above for PRX Race 5 April 23, we'd see BOTH horse #3 and #1 show as 6-1 (and NOT 5.5-1 and 5.4-1) and BOTH ranked identically. I will retain the existing means of fetching ProfitLine by logging in to TS, but the new automated procedure will happen without any initial login required.

(FWIW - I will also be adding the BRIS Prime Power number as a new external 'power number' - ranks, gaps and the number itself, and integrated into Rx if one chooses).

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Old 04-26-2018, 12:44 PM   #90
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Hi guys. I'm not good posting screen shots but here's an example of what I'm talking about. In tomorrows 6th race at Bel we have the 1 entry. Although neither is ranked in the top 5 they are ranked on the sheet. In this case the 1 is ranked #6 while the 1a is 12th. Ml for both is 6-1 however the PL odds are 18-1 for both if they both run. If the 1a were to scr the 1 remains 18-1 however if the 1 scr the 1a would be 50-1. This is the way all entries are reflected on the actual sheet regardless of their rank. So when 1 of them scr make sure to check if the ranks change in the grid.. Even the Bris pps power #s ranked them differently. For example in this race the 1 is ranked 10th while the 1a is ranked 6th. Ted I don't know if anything can be done about this so it looks like it's something we have to live with. For those who watch the races on the TS screen sometimes when 1 of the entry is top 3 rated you will see it in the Handicapping box. I don't know if this helps or not.
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