GP 7/1/21 race 2

[57viking]

Thanks Mitch ....

This is probably a question for Ted as I have looked through the site search and still not sure I understand how RDSS handles the DTV.

For the horse that has a -22 DTV in its pace line. How is RDSS going to handle the speed adjustment with the following config settings:

50% DTV and limit of -15

100% DTV and limit of -15

100% and limit of -25.

My understanding is that the RDSS speed for the adjusted paceline will be the fastest for the first config , then slower for the middle and slowest for the final config .

Jim

[buffaloxp]

The race are off turf tomorrow , is run on dirt at 8f, i need to put back runner #2 is a win contenders, but looks a lot unknow factors, I like a #5 runner on turf, on dirt sloppy ,i still put small w/p bet on him base on he on the lead
thank for all reply

raymond

[Mitch44]

Jim,

-22 it would discount 7 and only use 15, of that 15 it would only use 50% or 7.5 as the adjustment
with a 100% setting in the the middle Ex. it would use 100 % of the -15

In the bottom one it would use 100% or -25

Note: They are getting slower in your Ex. These variants are determined from a base of 0
a minus - means fast and a + means slower.

So as you can see a -25 is extremely fast and not any kind of norm at most all tracks to include fast tracks such as SA, Mth or Prx.

The biggest cause of these variants is the weather effect on the track. It seldom rains in sunny Cailf. so SA tend to remain constant however where there is a lot of rain not so constant such as CD. At CD in the spring a lot of rain however their fall meet not so much, so much more accurate and less of an effect in the fall meet.

Syn. tracks like PI and WO tend to remain pretty constant.

Turf courses are more effected by weather and can have a real variety of variants. SA with little rain tends to remain constant and more speed favoring. Other tracks can greatly be effected. The composition of the turf course, type of grass and length its cut effects how fast it comes back to normal etc. How tracks are watered between races also has an effect on variants throughout the day. A few years back GP was trying to save money so the watered less between races. Naturally it upset things and when the reason was found players forced them to return to the norm.

Turf races are less predicable than dirt and Syn. tracks and will lower a players win %. A players win % is also effected by the type of races played. In a slump? Eliminate turf and cheap races to raise win % and money won. Much like a major league hitter who can't hit a slider or curve, he has to lay off them to raise his batting average.

Above a -15 or +15 setting your defiantly getting into no-mans land or trying to traverse a minefield. Good luck with that.

Most know that FTS's or a horse stretching out from 5.5 or 6 F to a route is an Unknown Factor. I also consider extreme variants an Unknown Factor which few do and attempt to select another line if possible. Note in the Ex. above and this race not possible so I consider other things which is why I put the 6 & 8 on top in my order of selection and also will make this race just a fun bet and reduce my wager. There are better races to spend your assets on.

With Bris Pace numbers I don't consider variants at all because its all within their Pace numbers and they do not publish what the variant are for races or tracks. It works.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

After all this discussion I hate to see this race come off the turf.


The 1,3,4, & 5 are unknown factors on dirt. Not sure if the track is sloppy.


With the changes My picks are: 6-8-3 -2.


Mitch44

[57viking]

Thanks Mitch for the detailed response. Very helpful.

Jim

[raceman5]

Off the turf.

[buffaloxp]

Thanks all the reply, race is off the Turf, and is a lot unknow factors , i will hope #5 lead all the way to the bank, before he go hong kong

raymond

[buffaloxp]

Thanks Mitch the #6 pick I hit the $20 QU for $542,

raymond

[Mitch44]

They made the 2 horse the favorite which I didn't like. Just because he was a dirt horse does not guarantee a win which is why I put him 4th in my selections. His Tot. Energy was low. Among other things.


People think turf horses can't win on the dirt however it all depends on the competition.
There were still too many unknown factors in this race therefore just a fun bet and not a serious bet. My bet;


COMPLETED:f8931-04760
GP
#2
$2 Win 6, 8 none $4.00
$9.40
+ $5.40
COMPLETED:dd50e-2e010
GP
#2
$1 Win 3, 4none $2.00
$0.00
- $2.00


Done for the day with my small profit of $3.40, other priorities.


Mitch44

[darmar]

Nice hit Ray
Darryl