Morning Line Contenders Test - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Lt1 · 09-06-2021, 10:35 AM

In his book Winning At The Races Quirin devotes a chapter[10] to what he calls form failures. He explains that not all bad races are failures. He then provides examples of a failure and what is not considered a failure. Here is the definition a bad[not good]since the horses' most recent good race is considered a failure if in the race the horse failed to live up to what it accomplished in the good race or failed to accomplish what it will be asked to accomplish in todays' race. Here is one example given Horses' last 4 races

6f 13000, fin 4th by 4
8.5f 13ooo fin 8th by 12
6,5 16.000 fin 5th by2
6.f 10.000 fin 2nd by1
It's last good was line 2nd against 10k claimers It is expected to run well vs 10k sprinters or less. NONE of the next 3 races are failures today it is entered vs 13k sprinters then lin1 is a failure since it didn't accomplish what it is being asked to do today. If entered vs 16k sprinters the then l1 & l3 are failures. There are other examples given. Hope this helps.
Tim

tleusin · 09-06-2021, 11:23 AM

Thank you

tom · 09-06-2021, 11:25 AM

Tim,
I've been using the failures idea in my handicapping since that book came out.
Good stuff!

Lt1 · 09-06-2021, 03:56 PM

Yes it is Tom. Any time you can knock a contender, especially the fav, you increase your chances to win the races. Also I find it helpful in passing a race when all the contenders are saddled with defects.
Tim

Mitch44 · 09-06-2021, 04:44 PM

I find that favorites are extremely hard to quantify. You just never know when they decide
to go out of form. Most are damn if you do and damn if you don't. They still lose 60% of the time due to form mostly.

The two horse bet helps to solve the problem. Its one thing tossing it for win betting but not recommended for DD, P3,P4 etc. Some are simple because their on the wrong surface, or entered at the wrong distance. Others that are correctly entered can be brain teasers. I don't recall who said to identify false favorites, definitely catchy for sure. Now that I would love to observe, as he may not be better than most of us.

Form is the hardest thing to nail down, if it wasn't the game would cease.

Mitch44

09-06-2021, 10:35 AM	#11
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,152	In his book Winning At The Races Quirin devotes a chapter[10] to what he calls form failures. He explains that not all bad races are failures. He then provides examples of a failure and what is not considered a failure. Here is the definition a bad[not good]since the horses' most recent good race is considered a failure if in the race the horse failed to live up to what it accomplished in the good race or failed to accomplish what it will be asked to accomplish in todays' race. Here is one example given Horses' last 4 races 6f 13000, fin 4th by 4 8.5f 13ooo fin 8th by 12 6,5 16.000 fin 5th by2 6.f 10.000 fin 2nd by1 It's last good was line 2nd against 10k claimers It is expected to run well vs 10k sprinters or less. NONE of the next 3 races are failures today it is entered vs 13k sprinters then lin1 is a failure since it didn't accomplish what it is being asked to do today. If entered vs 16k sprinters the then l1 & l3 are failures. There are other examples given. Hope this helps. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

09-06-2021, 03:56 PM	#14
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,152	Yes it is Tom. Any time you can knock a contender, especially the fav, you increase your chances to win the races. Also I find it helpful in passing a race when all the contenders are saddled with defects. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

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09-06-2021, 11:23 AM	#12
tleusin Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 113	Thank you

09-06-2021, 11:25 AM	#13
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	Tim, I've been using the failures idea in my handicapping since that book came out. Good stuff!

09-06-2021, 04:44 PM	#15
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	I find that favorites are extremely hard to quantify. You just never know when they decide to go out of form. Most are damn if you do and damn if you don't. They still lose 60% of the time due to form mostly. The two horse bet helps to solve the problem. Its one thing tossing it for win betting but not recommended for DD, P3,P4 etc. Some are simple because their on the wrong surface, or entered at the wrong distance. Others that are correctly entered can be brain teasers. I don't recall who said to identify false favorites, definitely catchy for sure. Now that I would love to observe, as he may not be better than most of us. Form is the hardest thing to nail down, if it wasn't the game would cease. Mitch44