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Old 09-25-2021, 09:09 AM   #1
omar
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Smile PA Derby

For Bill V. (R.I.P. buddy) whose 2nd home was always Parx.

I looked at Pa Derby. My contenders are the 1-2-7-8-9. Realistically "Hot Rod" will be hard to beat. Does not need the lead to win. If he gets caught up in a speed duel then maybe race sets up for Bourbon, again if he gets too involved with the pace ( has been a hard luck horse this year ), then maybe Keepmeinmind can pick up the pieces or even Fulsome, who likes to win, at a price. Bourbonic has shown he does not belong with these guys. He couldn't even beat the 3 horse at 7F. I'm just not into the "Spirit" when a horse tests positive with an illegal substance to win, ala Max. Security, who I felt was drugged all along since the Fla. Derby until he got caught in a "drug free race" in the Saudi desert!
I may look at Prairie after dinner, maybe the 2nd half of card. These 2 tracks I look at once a year and only selected races at that. Laurel is the flavor of the day for me. And don't worry about track variants. Just watch the races. Note who the need to lead horses are and if they don't keep winning guess what, there's no speed bias ( what a surprise). And unless dead closers keep winning, there ain't no closing bias either ( another surprise).
Omar, handicapper without borders.
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Old 09-25-2021, 10:36 AM   #2
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With the scratch of the #9, the #3 may figure more prominently in the pace but there's the question of stretching out while taking a major class hike.
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Old 09-25-2021, 11:26 AM   #3
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Now with also the scratch of the #2 horse it looks like a race between #'s 7&8, unless the #1 pulls off a major upset. The real reason for even looking at this race is the All Stakes P4 (races 10-13). Look I make race 10 between the #'s 1&7. Races 11&13 look like a spread in hopes of catching a couple of price horses. So my ticket should look like this:

A) 1-7/1-5-6-8/8-7/1-3-4-5-7-9 $40 ticket

Last edited by omar; 09-25-2021 at 11:33 AM.
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Old 09-25-2021, 05:16 PM   #4
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Good luck Omar.
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