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08-21-2016, 07:37 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Presque Isle Downs - Sunday 8/21 - Race 5
Here is tonight's 5th race at P.I.D. Looks like a 7 PM post here in the East. Mark emailed me a few cards to peek at and this is one of them!
I've plugged in the projected pace from the #8's last line. As you scroll the pps you will see this is NOT the FPLR. Everyone is welcome to chime in, I will show the dashboard and tandem screens as well as the pp's with the horses lines "lit up" that match or are faster than today's projected pace.
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
08-21-2016, 07:38 AM | #2 |
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Posts: 7,014
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next group
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
08-21-2016, 07:39 AM | #3 |
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
08-21-2016, 12:07 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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My Interpretation
I handicapped this race in accordance with the teachings of Jim Bradshaw as I understand them. That knowledge or lack thereof is implemented with RDSS2 as best as I know how. I have chosen POWER LINES for each horse and if they preceded a long layoff and the horse appears to have declined I used a more recent line.
my initial eliminations are as follow: As I have variegated the race OTE I am eliminating the #5 and #12. The #9 has been off for 365 days. The #11 has one race off a 288 day layoff and in my experience I want at least two. The #6 is a Presser and has never not won a race showing in his pps on the lead. "The Hat" cautioned about these kinds of horses that find themselves on the lead for the first time. They run off. So I am eliminating him from win consideration. The #1 is an SP he appears to be lying 3rd at the first call and his pps show that he has never won from this position previously. He is eliminated from win consideration. The #8 is a Presser and he appears to be lying 4th at the 1st call and will be out of position. He is eliminated from win consideration. The #10 has run very close from the 6th position against a similar pace that i have projected. He is my horse. Implementing the Match Up via RDSS2 has been an evolving process. How do you pick minimally adjusted POWER LINES? Can you trust the Segment screen 1st Call positions that result? All I know is what I find in handicapping races and yesterday this method resulted in a $71.00 winner. Whether that was just coincidence or whether I am on to something, time will tell! |
08-21-2016, 03:04 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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An Intruiging Race!
Thanks Richie & Mark, there is an awful lot going on here! Goes off at 12:05am UK time and as I stayed up until silly o'clock last night watching the UFC I might have to miss the live running. Still my thoughts....
My first impression was that this could be a race with a dominant E making the other Es into OTE & therefore probable non-contenders. My call for the dominant E here is the 9. On the negative side it hasn't raced for exactly one year, but on the plus side I'm assuming that as the 9 is based I'm assuming at Mountaineer and they are going up(?) the Presque Isle downs for a $5k claimer, they are expecting a run from the horse. If not, why not just enter it into a cheap claimer at MNR? This is my selection for the win, but I'll add some OTEs as I'll back them too. 7 & 11 for me. Concern about the 11 whether or not it can recapture it's previous form. I'm going to assume not as it has clearly has a recurring injury issue. 9 & 7 for me. |
08-21-2016, 06:57 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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Wagering odds
The #10 just opened at 2/1. Candidly, I really have no interest in this horse at less than 10/1,his morning line. I have to rework the race and see if I can find another reasonable alternative that is a good wager!
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08-21-2016, 07:22 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Hope you caught the place with the 10 Mark.
Sadly for me 9's race was over within two strides.... |
08-21-2016, 07:38 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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Sadly
Dave,
Normally, I bet horses over 8/1 to win and place. However, I don't like this handicapping way in advance. Too much time to second guess yourself. I started looking back at my handicapping and it was all Greek to me. However, I did contribute my win bet to the mutuel pool. Thought I had a chance when the horse was able to switch out in the upper stretch. But that little dirt horse didn't slow down much. It's apparent he really has taken to the Poly. I would never have had him. |
08-23-2016, 06:52 AM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Here is the result chart of the race.
Mark's #10 runs very strong, gaining on the winner but finishes 2nd at a juicy 14/1! He is Matching beautifully, really focusing on Positioning and using RDSS as his tool to make his "pictures" of what will unfold in the race. He is a also a heck of a nice guy
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
08-23-2016, 01:45 PM | #10 |
Grade 3
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 74
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A bit surprising to me that this race didn't develop early. A 24.2 opening quarter is walking. Basically turned the race into a 3.5 furlong sprint with the leader be spotted 1 1/2 lengths on the runner up.
Last edited by delayjf; 08-23-2016 at 01:47 PM. |
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