GP 7/1/21 race 2

[buffaloxp]

I have a problem with a mix race, can some one tell me, which horse have a class edge, which horse is a elimination, and which horse is a win contenders

thanks
raymond

[MJS6916]

Raymond, some comments I have here:


1 - Did you pick the most recent line for each runner intentionally?

that's what your screenshot shows.

2 - Also the # 2 runner isn't one of your win contenders ( on your readout )

since the ITM box is checked instead of the Win box on your Race Cards (entry) screen.

If that's not what you intended, you should check the win Box and rerun

your analysis again.

[Mitch44]

Ray,
I agree with MJS6916 on your line selection, its doubtful at best this is correct, Especially with several older horses in this race, the 1,2,6,7 & 8 are all older horses. At this time of the year they have an advantage until about Oct., than they catch up with the older horses. That does not mean a 3 yr. old can't beat them. But now their about 3 to 5 lengths slower.
I would suggest you follow Sartin guidelines for your Pace Lines which is: Use a line of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Comparable distance is within 1 F of todays distance. Comparable surface is: Dirt fast lines, I never use off track lines even when the track is sloppy,Syn trk.'s 1st choice is Syn. lines, if none than Turf line & last a sloppy line , dirt only if that's all it has. Turf. 1st choice turf line, if none than Syn. line, if neither than an off track line such as sloppy.

There are cases where your forced to use what's there, I.e. Turf race and the horse has no turf, Syn. or sloppy line which means that there's no other choice but to use a dirt line. Same w/ dis.1 F is Max and I prefer to stay within 1/2 F when possible. If you make a horse a contender you may be forced to use what's there I.E a 5.5 F in a 9 F race, its a problem but that's not to say it can't stretch out but is up against it with proven routers.

If not within 1 F or a comparable surface than go to line #4 and so forth till you get the correct line.

Use Sartin guidelines in conjunction with the Perceptor. Perceptor will help you greatly in the decision process of selecting lines. Make use of the Perceptor!!!

On your 1st screen shot the CR is an indication of class. It incorporates APV, consistency and earnings.

As this card gets closer or the morning of 1 July the Profit numbers will be out and getting that update will aid in the decision process and strengthen the RX3 Factor.

Put up some screen shots of each horses PP's and you can probably get some help with the lines.You may get some disagreement but Sartin guidelines has been proven to get better prices and more winners.

Best of luck Ray,

Mitch44

[buffaloxp]

Originally Posted by MJS6916

Raymond, some comments I have here:


1 - Did you pick the most recent line for each runner intentionally?

that's what your screenshot shows.

2 - Also the # 2 runner isn't one of your win contenders ( on your readout )

since the ITM box is checked instead of the Win box on your Race Cards (entry) screen.

If that's not what you intended, you should check the win Box and rerun

your analysis again.

Yes, the #2 runner is not run on turf,and is MTO entree, so is not my win contenders, this race all runner is on the tough spot, i try to find which runner have class edge,

thanks
raymond

[buffaloxp]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Ray,
I agree with MJS6916 on your line selection, its doubtful at best this is correct, Especially with several older horses in this race, the 1,2,6,7 & 8 are all older horses. At this time of the year they have an advantage until about Oct., than they catch up with the older horses. That does not mean a 3 yr. old can't beat them. But now their about 3 to 5 lengths slower.
I would suggest you follow Sartin guidelines for your Pace Lines which is: Use a line of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Comparable distance is within 1 F of todays distance. Comparable surface is: Dirt fast lines, I never use off track lines even when the track is sloppy,Syn trk.'s 1st choice is Syn. lines, if none than Turf line & last a sloppy line , dirt only if that's all it has. Turf. 1st choice turf line, if none than Syn. line, if neither than an off track line such as sloppy.

There are cases where your forced to use what's there, I.e. Turf race and the horse has no turf, Syn. or sloppy line which means that there's no other choice but to use a dirt line. Same w/ dis.1 F is Max and I prefer to stay within 1/2 F when possible. If you make a horse a contender you may be forced to use what's there I.E a 5.5 F in a 9 F race, its a problem but that's not to say it can't stretch out but is up against it with proven routers.

If not within 1 F or a comparable surface than go to line #4 and so forth till you get the correct line.

Use Sartin guidelines in conjunction with the Perceptor. Perceptor will help you greatly in the decision process of selecting lines. Make use of the Perceptor!!!

On your 1st screen shot the CR is an indication of class. It incorporates APV, consistency and earnings.

As this card gets closer or the morning of 1 July the Profit numbers will be out and getting that update will aid in the decision process and strengthen the RX3 Factor.

Put up some screen shots of each horses PP's and you can probably get some help with the lines.You may get some disagreement but Sartin guidelines has been proven to get better prices and more winners.

Best of luck Ray,

Mitch44

I use FTL method and workous for the pace line selection, i will put each horse pp screen shots to see

thanks
raymond

[buffaloxp]

[buffaloxp]

[Mitch44]

Hi Ray,

I reviewed your pace line selection and agree with all but the number 8. There are races that set up like this however I would not recommend FTL for picking of pace lines. However your free to do whatever want.

The correct line for # 8 is line 3. It fits Sartin guidelines and is the best Perceptor of last 3 at a comparable dis. and surface. I also expect it to run to that race or better. In line # 1 the horse won but that line is deceptive because I believe the horse only did what it had to and had more in the tank. This is another reason horses win that FTL would not get. Sartin guidelines and Perceptor will out perform FTL. Sartin adapted through research whereas FTL never did and used guidelines that were original from circa 1980's. My recommendation is go with the one who did the research and the Master. BTY that would be Sartin.While FTL is a nice guy and well intentioned his fault or nemesis was he couldn't adapt or change. There is much truth in;"Nice guys finish last." Adapt and overcome or perish.

A few other observations;1. Horse # 2 has run on the turf 3 times before which doesn't show here, no in the money finishes in those three. 2. I observed a great degree of gaps etc. in the variants however another line could not be used, therefore trust the program to make the correct adjustments. 3. There appears to be a few Need To Lead horses in here that could effect the race, I haven't checked this out or done all my normal stuff. Check this out on the Energy tab of each horses PP. Look at ESP not RS RS is the visual and many times inaccurate, the computer driven ESP is much more accurate. I haven't looked at this or accessed it(NTL) in detail.4. The 8 horse has improved with Blinkers on in last 3 races and may run bask to a previous top or a new top. The B on isn't shown here in these screen shots.

I would probably call this race 6-8-7

Good luck with it Ray,

Mitch44

[57viking]

Hi Mitch…. Would you be worried on the 1st lines for horses 3 and 4 since they are so much better than any other line and the DTV for both are very fast? They are both 3 year olds, and should improve, but without a change in distance or surface, they seem out of line.


Jim

[Mitch44]

Hello 57 Viking,


The variants are:
# V # V
1 -7 5 0
2 2 6 0
3 -17 7 -19
4 -22 8 -13

I checked and for these horses another line choice is not possible. With the proper setting of using only 50%, a Sartin recommendation lessens the impact but still out of line for my liking. Amazingly the program does a good job with these situations. In this case no other line choices, just have to to trust it. It should caution one to not go overboard on a race like this. Plus these horses aren't world beaters so can they repeat their last??????

I think the 8 can and the 6 horses hasn't disgraced itself at this level yet.

The 3 & 4 are UNKNOWN factors for me and could jump up at a price:

The 3 has improved from stretching out to a route but only has 2 races at the distance. Until they have at least 3, then who knows? May keep improving or may have peaked.
The 2 Has improved with Blinkers on (one race) and from Lasix (2 races) may have peaked or may have topped, or may keep improving.

This race because of the Unknown factors in it, variants etc. is not a prime betting race. Save the house and just a fun race to bet. They still have to prove it and with that I would prefer the 6-8-7 as proven quantities. I like the 3 over the 4 of those two.

Just not a prime betting situation. The race before and after are also filled with Unknown factors so no risk reward there also for a DD play. As I said in a recent post, besides the horses you have to access the race also as a whole. There are better opportunities in other races than this race.

For risk reward here you need at least 5-1 on a contender, you may get that on the 3,4 & 8, and they would only be a $2 fun bet. The 6 would not surprise if it won but I figure it to be bet down.


Final order 6-8-7-3-4

Mitch44