Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-18-2021, 02:34 PM   #21
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Bob,

Any variant below -15 and above + 15 is abnormal. When a variant falls outside this range the accuracy of it comes into question. Lets say a variant is +20, well is it that or a +21 or +25? Especially on dirt off tracks, or high class turf races that are left on the turf after real heavy rain. What is the difference between heavy or slow turf line? View abnormal variants with suspicion. There are degrees of heavy, degrees of slow and even degrees of fast. Not all fast tracks are the same fastness.

Any Factor in racing must be put in context or perspective, this includes variants. One should ask; What is the norm for the field or better yet what is the norm for my contenders?

If your using the recommended settings the program should take care of these inequities; Using 50% of the variant as suggested by Sartin your actually using 7.5 not -15 or +15. That's plenty.

In the DRF a 10 variant would equal 5 lengths, therefore you can see how easily you can adjust yourself right out of a race, or in other words make a horse a contender for win or downgrade from win. In RDSS its hard to put it into beaten lengths because the adjustments vary by distance of Fraction etc. so its not clear and concise but its there.

I know some one will ask; What if 4 contenders are all -under 0 and one is +15? Well putting it in context I would say its abnormal which is why I review variants after all lines are chosen. This really doesn't happen too often but can happen. I.E. an East Coast horse where tracks tend to be slower ships to say a California track. Or vise verses. I would look for another line, and if none than trust the program. You won't see this often but is a possibility particularity on Breeders Cup Day.

Hope that answers your question Bob.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 08-18-2021 at 02:40 PM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2021, 09:03 AM   #22
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
Thanks

Mitch
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2021, 09:55 AM   #23
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
Bill, Your findings in post 6, that 84% of all winners have all four ratings ( VDC-CSR-PL & BPP ) are identical to mine and mine cover over 8,000 races in the past 7 years.
My latest group of 800+ races I used the settings of 100DTV and The programs setting of + or- 15.( I used these settings after talking to Mitch) and I found no change in the % of contenders that won.
The reason I use 100% is because the CSR is more accurate being a compounded rating taken from the last 4 races. (In my testing I found that there was a 7% increase in the winners in the top 5 CSR using this setting.)
I applaud you for your research, I know how much time it takes.

Rmath
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2021, 11:06 AM   #24
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Now, I just need to find a way to be consistent and win.

Just wondering Richie, when you changed to 100 DTV did the stats on any of the other three factors change appreciably?

Thanks,

Bill
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2021, 12:07 PM   #25
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Richie is correct about the variant effecting the CSR. The amount of variant or size from a zero base will determine any effect. Obviously the larger the variant the more effect. What tracks you play also has an effect. A track like SA won't have much of an effect because it tends to be very consistent with little variations in weather and variants.

I use 50% adjustment of the variant because I don't use CSR within the program and that is Sartin's recommendation. My view of the CSR is similar to pace line selection in that there are bad lines or bad SR's within the last 3 or 4 races. Even through you can throw out a line, there are situations where 2 or 3 must be discounted and that can't be done within the program. Something on my wish list would be the ability to discount lines, much like Brohamer did for inappropriate information. Either by lining a line out or a check box to do away with the line, naturally also the ability to bring it back. Like a pace line it could be automatic or user adjusted. A wish but I'm not holding my breath and will keep doing my present approach or regular. It works.

The present CSR does an admirable job for instant gratification but precision is rewarded along with attention to detail.


Note variant settings will also effect V/DC and other pace factors.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 08-19-2021 at 12:12 PM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2021, 12:34 PM   #26
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Great example of what I was trying to say from below. Notice how the ASRs get lower when the horse runs farther. After a slow pace line 10 the ASR improves to 88, then retreats when two tries at 6.5 to 84 and 82, then back up to 85 at 6f, down to 82 for 7f, back up to 84 at 6f and further up to 89 (very close to line 9), back down to 82 at 6.5 and once again a little faster for 6f at 85. So for today's distance we have ASRs of 84-82-82 from the bottom up.

I am using line 2 for today's race. If this race was at 6f, I would use one of the higher 6f lines, if at 7f, I would use the lone 7f line and not give the horse the benefit of the doubt for running faster when not running as far.

The TPR number is +10.2 which is right where it should be.





Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Also from Mitch: "Once you get below -15 or above +15 your out of what is a normal variant normal. Once I select all of my lines I then review the variants and create a new norm by seeing what the average is for my chosen lines. Then I see what is abnormal by that standard, if a horse is abnormal I try to seek another line.

Sometimes you can use another line and sometimes your just stuck with it, especially with young horses with limited data. Even if stuck with it, the line provides important information as to its preference to distance or surface. Like a FTS if its horrible I just disregard it and consider it an UNK. Factor."

Have you ever noticed the variants of a horse's first start, especially if it won? Many times you will see a negative -15 and then it goes into its next race against winners and loses but the variant is close to zero or even a little positive, where the horse finishes up the track with no noted excuses. If all the horses in race 2 have positive variants, this horse's chances are probably over stated.

How many times do you see a near zero or positive variant win with an adjusted speed rating (ASR) of say 75 jump and in its second race to an ASR of 88 with a -15 variant? Yes, expect that a second race SHOULD show improvement, but not all do. But in my mind no horse jumps more than a few ASR points from race to race, certainly NOT 13 or more.

In this regard, pay attention to the distance being run. Early in their careers young horses often start out at 5 or 5.5 furlongs and post relatively high ASRs, but look what happens when the distances stretch out. An ASR of 75 at 5.5f often turns out to be an ASR of 73 at six furlongs, and perhaps 71 at 6.5 furlongs. In other words, the ability of the horse is declining as the distance gets longer. You will also find some horses get better as the distance progresses so you have to make that judgment in your line selection. Look at the TPR graph along with these other observations. To me its a dead give away if the TPR total is lower as the races get longer. Sometimes the EPR gets bigger with corresponding lowering of the LPR.

When I first started in racing reading the form, you would often hear trainers say a horse was a certain distance horse, like "this horse is a perfect middle distance horse (8.0f - 8.5f) but cannot last to 9F". Another instance in many 7f races you will find horses that only run 6.5f or 7f, but never successfully go two turns. Many times by taking this view of the PPs you can prevent yourself from choosing a line not at today's distance that contradicts what distance the horse is good at. This is one really good reason to choose lines within .5 F of today's distance, after determining if a shorter distance line is appropriate. Most often I use a line at the race distance no matter how far back, as long as the energy expenditure is in the horses normal range and the TPR graph supports it.
Attached Images
 
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2021, 12:42 PM   #27
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
Bill, the only change was in the VDC rating.
PL & BPP are not affected by using the 100 setting.
I got 7% more winners using the 100 setting in CSR.
Like Doc said : If you can get 1 more winner in 20 races Go with the change.
Richie
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2021, 12:42 PM   #28
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Richie is correct about the variant effecting the CSR. The amount of variant or size from a zero base will determine any effect. Obviously the larger the variant the more effect. What tracks you play also has an effect. A track like SA won't have much of an effect because it tends to be very consistent with little variations in weather and variants.

I use 50% adjustment of the variant because I don't use CSR within the program and that is Sartin's recommendation. My view of the CSR is similar to pace line selection in that there are bad lines or bad SR's within the last 3 or 4 races. Even through you can throw out a line, there are situations where 2 or 3 must be discounted and that can't be done within the program. Something on my wish list would be the ability to discount lines, much like Brohamer did for inappropriate information. Either by lining a line out or a check box to do away with the line, naturally also the ability to bring it back. Like a pace line it could be automatic or user adjusted. A wish but I'm not holding my breath and will keep doing my present approach or regular. It works.

The present CSR does an admirable job for instant gratification but precision is rewarded along with attention to detail.


Note variant settings will also effect V/DC and other pace factors.

Mitch44
Yes, this has been a comment I have made ever since I did the original study several years ago. There are times without a top rating that you just know that with your chosen lines, the rank would be higher. Comes with practice.

Thanks Mitch.
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2021, 12:57 PM   #29
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Bill, the only change was in the VDC rating.
PL & BPP are not affected by using the 100 setting.
I got 7% more winners using the 100 setting in CSR.
Like Doc said : If you can get 1 more winner in 20 races Go with the change.
Richie
Sorry to bug you Richie, I knew as soon as I hit the send button that the only other thing that could change was the Vdc which is line dependent.

Thanks,
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2021, 01:51 PM   #30
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,148
Good thread, thanks to everyone sharing their insights

Jeff
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
A Saratoga Saturday Latekick Selections 35 08-05-2016 02:12 PM
Saratoga 2015 - PaceandCap Weekend ? Ted Craven General Discussion 5 03-30-2015 08:07 AM
Alabama Stakes 2014 Saratoga Ted Craven Races of Interest 5 08-16-2014 02:19 PM
** Update: Saratoga 2012 Plans Ted Craven 2012 48 08-17-2012 11:55 AM
Pace and Cap / Sartin Methodology Weekend at Saratoga 2010 Ted Craven 2010 5 07-26-2010 11:48 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:31 AM.