New Angle: COATTAILS

[Tim Y]

Definition: When you're on the coattails of someone else, you're enjoying success because of the association. Often, the success is not earned. ... If someone sat on your coattails, you could drag them around, giving them a ride. That's why this expression refers to situations where one person gets a free ride from another.

In reviewing HUNDREDS upon HUNDREDS of payout charts, I noticed a very THEORETICALLY profitable angle

How often do you see the best 2 out of three horses run 1/2 or 1/3 and the runners UNDER THEM are random, irrational and HIGH odds leaving what would be an exacta (or the horrid SPLITZACTA). The resultant random ones under bolsters the payout tremendously. Go through some charts at almost any track and you will see countless examples of this which I also call the marriage of ORDER and Randomness together.

It all boils down to hooking the BEST of the earlies, with the best of the lates in a wager (now there is a very common payout that will break even or give you back a "push" but often the payout far exceeds what you would have expected with shorter odds on top of random finishers.)

Look into a lot of charts and see how often you find this and I will come back later and explain the mechanics of this wager. IF ANYONE told me 6 years ago, I would be playing ANY supers I would have laughed in their face....NO LONGER

[Tim Y]

[

How often do you see the best 2 out of three horses run 1/2 or 1/3 and the runners UNDER THEM are random, irrational and HIGH odds leaving what would be an exacta (or the horrid SPLITZACTA). The resultant random ones under bolsters the payout tremendously. Go through some charts at almost any track and you will see countless examples of this which I also call the marriage of ORDER and Randomness together.

Look into a lot of charts and see how often you find this and I will come back later and explain the mechanics of this wager. IF ANYONE told me 6 years ago, I would be playing ANY supers I would have laughed in their face....NO LONGER[/QUOTE]

Remington 7th tonight 6 (3rd) 6/1 and 9 (4th) > 15/1
Super for a dollar $183.80, whereas Exacta was $2, 2/1 $19.20

[ranchwest]

My personal trainer ratings show those 4 trainers as the best rated in that race.

They are also the #2, #4, #3 and #5 in Prime numbers.

Also, Sartin said that picking Place horses is not the same as picking win horses. I think that obviously can be extended to the other vertical positions.

[Mitch44]

The Match Up causes that a lot. One horses burns out the other and allows the place horse to get up. I don't see how it can be totally predicable before hand. Also one of the top 2 go out of form, again unpredictable. I don't believe these situations are being manipulated, just two reasons that that even connections can't predict. You also see this in G1 with huge purses so I don't believe it to be intentional.

Mitch44

[Tim Y]

STOP worrying about its genesis and start collecting MONEY...I will post more as I find then during the day

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

STOP worrying about its genesis and start collecting MONEY...I will post more as I find then during the day

Seems like a nice little angle but as I say to a new angle: You have to know that persons angle inside and out (meaning you fully understand it) or else you will fail to find this "angle" in the pp's

Thanks for posting Tim! Good luck

[Ted Craven]

Either there's something predictable, exploitable here, or there isn't. Let's find out more. We have good tools - and enquiring minds - to do that.

Ted

[Tim Y]

I was doing the group a COURTESY in finding a varied number of cases of this occurring in a single day before talking about it in more depth to SUNSTANTIATE how often this occurs.

By coincidence, the HIGHEST ROI I ever found happened Saturday in Woodbine's 7th when the two lowest odds horses in the race, ran 1/2 (predictable) and the ensuing group created this payoff.

https://www.equibase.com/static/char...091821CAN7.pdf

WAIT, I am in the process of finishing the collection of that data so that further explanation of the mechanics will make more sense...More examples to follow a several different tracks on several surfaces as I have been founding for the last several years. Be Patient.

[Tim Y]

What I found: when it works, there are several distributions possible


TOPZACTA and reverse Key1/Key2/all/all
SPLITZACTA and reverse key1/all/key2/all
MIDZACTA all/key1/key2/all and reverse RARE
BOTTOM SPLITZACTA all/key1/all/key2 and reverse VERY rare
BOTTOMZACTA all/all/key1/key2 and reverse RAREST of them all
POLARZACTA kye1/all/all/key2 ad reverse MORE common on the turf but overall this angle is not as realizable on the grass with all the trip problems messing up logical contenders

[Tim Y]

Quote form original POST: How often do you see the best 2 out of three horses run 1/2 or 1/3 and the runners UNDER THEM are random, irrational and HIGH odds leaving what would be an exacta (or the horrid SPLITZACTA). The resultant random ones under bolsters the payout tremendously. Go through some charts at almost any track and you will see countless examples of this which I also call the marriage of ORDER and Randomness together.

so the following are from last Saturday and all fit these 3 definitions: top, splitzacta, two of three favorites

Arlington: races 3 4 5 6 8
Delaware: short fields short prices would hardly cover the wager 7 & 8
Evangeline: 3 5 8
Louisiana Downs: 5 & 6
Remington: 5 & 8
Prairie Meadows: 4 5 6
Woodbine: 7th
Belmont: 3 6
Churchill Downs: 1 5 7
GGF: 4 & 6
Gulfstream: 1 2 4 5 6 7 10 11 wow
Laurel: 3 7 8 11