Matchup discussion for The Withers AQI R9 Feb 1

[barryt]

Withers.
Hi all .my 2nd post.
I have been sorta using the Matchup at Aqi one day a week( Thursday) and doing well in sprints but routes are a problem as are these type of races as illustrated by the Withers STK ,R9 at AQI February 1.
BRISNET PPs here
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1178190

I use the BRISNET Pace ratings rather than the raw times ( so I don' t have to make track to track nor variant adjustments). I'll go thru the matchup and ask for comments.

Good news only 6 horses 2E,2P and 2S..that,s nice.
Selecting the fastest BRISNET E2 as the paceline
48.1 113.2 151.4 = 102 98 71
Which is also the Pl selected for #2
#2E pl1102 98 71
#5E pl1 84 86 109
So at first glance seems # 5 can't compete with 2 for the lead, but has sprint races that show it can and it's LF is huge
#1P 89 83107
#6P 85 80 96
# 6 should be eliminated as # 1 has much better late Pace(FFR). If #5E is eliminated because he can' keep up to #2 at the 2nd call, then # 1 has a much better LP than #2 and could possibly catch him?
#3S 93 104 76 these two are a TANDEM
#4S 97 105 79
right away I have a problem as the second calls of the S horses is faster than those of the E horses and while it looks like the P and # 5 horses can't keep up at the 2nd call their LFs are much better than the S horses. So I' m really confused here and would pass the rce, but I'm interested if there's a better analysis .
Any one want to take a shot at this?
How does RDSS handle this race?
Tx
Barryt
ps replies past post are good too!

[Appy]

If I can get time I plan to work this one old school AND with RDSS. Catch you later.

[PeteC]

Hi Barry- Yes, this one is a bit tricky for me too with the mix of surfaces (inner, regular, fast, gd). I would go with the 5 as the dominant early over the 2 for a couple of reasons. First, the last race looks like a jog for this horse and the previous sprint fractions show he can get on top of a faster pace. Second, this horse is 3 for 3 in terms of going to the lead and setting a clear lead whereas the 2 only did that in its last race.

If anyone can run down the 5 I would think it would be the 1 but that could be a tough chore. Regardless, the prices of those two should be pretty low so it's a good one to pass and go to school on.

Good luck...

[barryt]

Tx Pete
II sorta had the same analysis as you came up with, but I was hoping that it could be put in a more analytically
E.g being able to transpose the sprint EPR of the 5 to show how he is the dominant speed rather than supposing it , if you get my drift.

I have seen sprint races where the S horse has the best EPR and for the first time ever he gets the lead and ins easily. In this case I don't think 3or 4 will do that.

Did you do a RDSS?

[Appy]

RDSS.
3-4 early duel through 2nd call.
5 is the Lone Early (and tops APV and CR while 2nd CSR) of the Race Shape but doesn't show early fractions good enough to get the lead. Will he keep fighting?
Segs show 3 and 4 burn out and are passed by 1,5, and 6 after 2nd call.
BL shows it 1-6-5.
Not sure I trust Parx class of the 6 to translate and anticipate speed will play tough. 1 & 5 best late run. 5 too much ground to make up.
I'll pick it 1-5-4 but I'd pass this one.

[barryt]

Tx Appy.
Yeah the EPR s show 34 duel but both have S style and 5 as an E who " can't" get the lead? So predicting the MATCHUP is pretty much impossible. So was always passing, but was interested in what others thought here.
I'll definitely watch the race and put a recap here.

[lone speed]

Just glancing down the pps.the huge sustained fraction of the #1 horse jumps off the page. Yes many different variables in this matchup...but the two low priced horses stand tall, so it might be wise to move on for better values..

Good skills.

[barryt]

Turned out to be match race between 1 and 5. They went around the track 5+ lengths ahed of the rest with the 1 leading by less than a length til the 1/8 pole when the 5 pulled away to win by 1. BothNY breds
The TPRs ruled here 195 to 191 next best was 184 #4. Tandem to #4, #3 fin 3rd TPR tri =$31
Tx for the comments.

[Appy]

"EPR s show 34 duel but both have S style and 5 as an E who "can't" get the lead?"

I should have been more specific. What I meant is the 5 would likely be unable to get the EARLY lead vs the speed potential in this field, but could fight for it after second call. HE was tops in APV and CR and top 3 in CSR.
My problem with using 1 and 5 was probable odds...well that and watching my basketball team lose. Now I only have to hope the Seahawks can salvage the weekend!
Anyway, good thread and fun exercise.

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by Appy

"EPR s show 34 duel but both have S style and 5 as an E who "can't" get the lead?"

I should have been more specific. What I meant is the 5 would likely be unable to get the EARLY lead vs the speed potential in this field, but could fight for it after second call. HE was tops in APV and CR and top 3 in CSR.
My problem with using 1 and 5 was probable odds...well that and watching my basketball team lose. Now I only have to hope the Seahawks can salvage the weekend!
Anyway, good thread and fun exercise.

The 5 was able to set and finish strong a 7F race 2 back in 46.2, 110.4, which is 3-4 seconds faster at 6F call than any other E horse. Always watch for sprinters in a route with no other horses that can compete against a faster pace. If an E sprinter is in a "weak" paced route, and can WIN or hold strong with an open lead, these horses can usually wire the field.