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10-29-2014, 01:30 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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10/31 BC Sprint
Here are the PP's for the sprint, the best of the best going 6F....
Ooops, make that 11/1 BC Sprint......the race is on Saturday.... Last edited by PeteC; 10-29-2014 at 01:32 PM. Reason: Wrong date! |
10-30-2014, 01:57 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 130
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I see the following horses as early or used to be early and cannot get on top of their fractions any longer 1,5,10,11,12,13,14,15, & 16 therefore with that many early I believe the race will run other than early and to account for all the earlies I am looking for a little bit deeper closer to come off the pace of 5th or 6th or maybe 7th so my choice will be 4 & 6 based on other than early and class. Not sure about any scratches at this point but since I am doing this on Thursday those are my two picks.
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10-31-2014, 11:40 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 168
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SA 10 Nov 01
For my initial sort I looked at every tandem race and made Non-Contenders of the slow tandems and horses that lost to others in this race.
I notice three things right away. 6 Rich T is positioned 5th behind 5 and shows two power moves 2nd to Str and Str to Fin. 12 Fast A is only Early to actually get a lead and is also FPLR. 4 Secret is ML favorite and is Non-Contender. For Pace of Race I will use 4 Secret because he ran exact times last two out over SA at today's distance. 22 44.3 55.9 1:08 Tossing all Earlies leaves 2 5 6 14. 14 is out for being a tic slower over KEE than 13 which has already been thrown. Matching 2 and 5 has 5 Privat closest to the fastest pace up front. Since today's pace is slower, 5 Privat will have more energy left for the end of the race and still be positioned just behind the lead bunch. Final two contenders are 6 Rich T and 5 Privat |
10-31-2014, 02:04 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
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Looking Early
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11-01-2014, 11:45 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
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The also eligibles are out of the sprint; #15 and #16
__________________
Tim Don't look back. You're not going that way. |
11-01-2014, 12:23 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
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Needless to say, this is a tough race.
It looks like the 11, 12, and 13 will vie for the lead. The 12 and 13 look like they can cut a 21.4 so I'm going to use the SA sprint championship as the projected pace: 21.4 44.1 55.2 1:07.3 I think the horse will go OTE. Here are the notables in the field I think have a chance: 4: Contender off sprint championship. Good power moves. 6: Last at 1st call in only north american race. Tracker in Europe. Contender. 8: Mid position S type 3 and 5 races back. SAR and BEL are a little slower. Huge internal fractions. Contender. 10: Too early 11: Too early. No fight. 14: Way back. I'm going to pick 2 horses here. Will toss the 4. He won it last year and may be the favorite. Will use the 6 and 8 with the caveat that the 3 might do something off very fast 5f grass races in Europe. Tim |
11-01-2014, 12:37 PM | #7 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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Quote:
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11-01-2014, 01:27 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 168
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I was concerned about the 3 also. Why would her people enter a 3yo girl turf horse against older boy dirt 6f horses just come in last at 30 to 1? Looks like a dumb move on paper. But they wouldn't put an entry like that unless they intend to win, no?
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11-01-2014, 05:59 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,538
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My Winning Group:
1/4/7/12/13 Todays Projected Pace: 21.7/44.3 Early Scenario: I see half Earlies and half OTE's in this race. With no absolute (needs the lead) to win. Even the 12 can break 5th and win. So I will go Early. Tandems: 13 has beat 7 three times (7 demoted) 4 beaten 1.8 lengths by non-contender 6 (4 demoted) 1 beaten 2 lengths by non-contender 10 (1 demoted) Conclusion: Bet (12 and 13) at good prices for the Win. Pook |
11-01-2014, 07:17 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
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Pook, I like it!!!!
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