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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 03-04-2018, 11:28 AM   #121
Mitch44
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mikesal57:
I assume your stats are correct and I'm well aware that long layoff horses are poor bets and risky. Just as well as horses stretching out, stepping up in class or repeat winners for that matter.

But where you make a mistake is that I do not bet all layoff horses. I only bet the ones that meet my standards. One of which is yours; " The only time I bet a layoff horse is if the horse won in the past off a layoff . . . " I also have several other requirements that it must meet which I posted in a previous post. If it meets my prerequisites I bet it and if not its discarded . The overwhelming majority get discarded, same for repeat winners and other aspects of handicapping.

I don't automatically discard horses with rules but I do look at them. Too many rules such as 90 day or odds over 20-1 etc. cause you to give up to high a percentage going into a race. I like to start off with a 100 % chance of winning and then I go from there.



Layoffs are a losing proposition only if you bet them all. Only a fool does or would do that.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-04-2018 at 11:42 AM.
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Old 04-14-2018, 06:37 PM   #122
shoeless
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Bill V had suggested to me to do a 20 race cycle, he told me to take
my time and only do races I felt comfortable with. I finally finished it
and hit 13 races from the 20 using 2 horse bets.

I used FTL guidelines which really work getting the right horses and
pace lines in the computer using the Energy program which FTL and
Bill V helped me to get a better understanding of. FTL had told me that
I needed to use the program to see what works for me and found that
concentrating on the 3rd fraction horses was where my winners were
coming from.

I would like to thank FTL and Bill V as without their help even though
it's a small sample I would have never achieved this.
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Old 04-14-2018, 07:06 PM   #123
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Nice

As an outsider to many examples Bill V told me & also using FTL learnings have certainly increased my win positions
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Old 04-15-2018, 09:57 AM   #124
Bill V.
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Save The Last Dance

Thanks Jeff and Delivry

TPR and FTL's guidelines - To the best of my ability,
along with much better record keeping, has eased my mind.


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Old 04-15-2018, 12:58 PM   #125
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Thanks Bill and Dlivery


Nice presentation on the goals Bill, having a plan is something I didn't have until I
started using FTL's guidelines
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Old 04-29-2018, 11:30 PM   #126
Lefty
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What a great thread and learning experience.
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Old 04-30-2018, 07:36 PM   #127
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Lefty

Glad you were able to find something helpful here. owe it all
to FTL and Bill V for their contributions
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Old 04-30-2018, 08:52 PM   #128
Lefty
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Wonder Why?

One Sartin Prgm I never had was Energy, but a prgm that can predict which horses liable to win early or sustained sounds great. I wonder why the Doc never put that in the later prgs. I would be interest what it says about the Derby?
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Old 05-12-2018, 12:37 AM   #129
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Hard to figure out why Doc never included it in other programs but as
far as the older programs go Energy seems to me the best of them.
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Old 05-12-2018, 06:10 AM   #130
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how early or late

Hi Lefty
After Energy or Phase,5 Doc wanted to go beyond early and late.
He taught and wanted his programs to measure not just if a race would favor early or other than early,
but the amount of early or ate energy relative to a horses total energy.
All programs thereafter used a energy generator, Each horse was and is still today measuring in RDSS these energy derived readouts,
Early Presser Sustained Early and Sustained Pressers and Late
Right up to follow up 88, Doc still refers to the computer generated beaten lengths and these running patterns from the energy generator.
Then he added deceleration based readouts culminating with V/DC.
This was Phase 6 which Doc believed was a synthesis of all his early work.

Last edited by Bill V.; 05-12-2018 at 06:16 AM.
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