Winning With Early-Huge Hillside Turf Score

[sureshotlink]

Originally Posted by Neil S.

I'm curious as to why you made multiple win and exacta wagers over and over again instead of just one entire bet.

Stems from my OCD

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Originally Posted by RichieP

Awesome hit Neil and Paul!! Take down the cash

Hello Richie,

Thanks man,

Appreciate you for your contributions to this forum teaching the Hat's match-up
concept( not easy to teach nor put into practice)

Paul

[dlivery]

Originally Posted by Neil S.

There are many methodologists whose paceline and contender selection process gets them far more winners than I do. But the beauty of the FTL guidelines is that for the first time in the many years I've used the Methodology I have landed on a solid and consistent strategy. Yes it goes through down periods but the upsides thus far have been incredible. As for posting results after the fact I can see your point, however as I have already stated I don't have any control over when a score is coming so to provide readers with 8 losing scenarios wouldn't be beneficial to anyone whereas pointing out certain situations where a particular situation was profitable can be informative.

Yes and Yes and Yes
As long as we know the dry spell will only dry up and again begin to be profitable we will only wait and see

[shoeless]

Neil

Was wondering if you use RDSS for your TPR numbers

Doesn't matter to me if you post races after they have run you
can learn just as well that way

[Neil S.]

No. I do the Phase I numbers by hand and have been doing so for many years. I also am able to calculate the EPR and LPR ratings as well by hand. I make a special adjustment to the the final times of the hill races which I developed over the years to bring them into line with the TPR's at the other distances. I'm very proficient at doing the numbers and can do an entire race card in about 15-20 minutes.

[Mitch44]

Sartin always said; " If you lose 3 races in a row , you need to stop and reevaluate your procedure." Long run outs aren't conductive to profits.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

I believe we can learn more from losing races then when we win one. Most of us,including me, rarely if ever review why we won a race. We just take the money and run. When we lose, especially multiple races in a row, now we are forced to evaluate our approach to correct what we are doing wrong. Nothing like losing real money to make you get your act together. I like to know if losing multi races in a row was because the winner was not contained in the contender mix or was it simply ones choices of the horses to bet. In the first instances then maybe the guidelines should be put aside and one of the other approaches such as the matchup or best of the last 3 comparable dist,surface etc, should be employed. In the 2nd well we all make wrong betting decisions from time to time such as hiding low odds horses who are legit or as I do moving horses up or down the tier levels base on non Sartin factors. Either way it's up to each of us to get things right and we can with hard work and record keeping.
Tim

[Neil S.]

In my own statistics I see that my top rated horse consistently wins at a much higher rate than my other contenders. The second choice does win a decent percentage as well, but when betting it with my top choice cuts into my profit potential. Although my 3rd and 4th choices average higher mutuels they have a tendency for long run outs. I am willing to wait for situations when my top choice is 4-1 or higher and go concentrate on these races. Because of this I go longer periods without winning actual money although the race was won by a short priced runner or the occasional longshot comes in that wasn't ranked highly. I would say that my FTL contenders win at about a 65 percent rate with my top two accounting for more than 75 percent of these winners. I like the consistency and stability of the guidelines and the potential of big exact a and trifecta payouts using my top choice enables me to withstand longer drought periods than others.

[Mitch44]

Your post # 10 " so to provide readers with 8 losing scenarios wouldn't be beneficial to anyone" indicates some run outs. With that independent study by Bill Lister of FTL the contenders were only in the top 4 65% which makes it impossible to achieve a win rate of 65%.Best of luck with it through and I wish you future success..


Mitch44

[Neil S.]

I don't have a win rate of 65 percent and never have. All of my FTL contenders account for 65 percent of all winners but obviously I don't catch each one of these.