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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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05-20-2017, 09:18 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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1 for 2
well first the bad. My buddy Charlie and I have a SPECIAL thing with racing and the Hat.
The Derby I told him Hence couldn't lose. Still trying to find him. Anyone see him??? Today I sent him the Preakness PP's and he called me up BEFORE THE RACE at my Grandson's house where we were all gathered working on his new playground He asked me who I Liked so he could toss him. I told him the #2 Cloud Computing was going to sit 3rd no worse than 4th behind the 2 battling speeds and WIN THE RACE. The phone rang a few minutes later "Slick your horse won" at 13/1 That's the Matchup when things break right
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
05-20-2017, 09:36 PM | #12 | |
always learning
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
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Quote:
I don't wager on 3 year olds this early in the season, but a friend asked what I thought about this race, and I gave him the winner in the Derby, so they asked again. I can't claim to have won this, or even bet on it, (many other good races today to work, however), but my own version of New Pace + RDSS (weighted by my own profiles/records) put through my regressions for dirt routes, came out with the #2 on top of the #4, and the 9th as 3rd choice. No one was more surprised than me. That'll teach me to believe my numbers. Doh. Last edited by Dorianmode; 05-20-2017 at 09:46 PM. |
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05-20-2017, 09:38 PM | #13 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Mark and RichieP,
Congratulations. That's great handicapping. |
05-20-2017, 10:07 PM | #14 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Quote:
2. Predicting Classic Empire gets a better trip today than the Derby 3. History is against Triple Crowns 4. Intuition (or vice versa ...) Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-20-2017 at 10:14 PM. |
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05-20-2017, 10:13 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Indeed - congratulations Richie and Mark!
On post-mortem, Cloud Computing was the last horse I demoted from my TOP 4. Comparing relative calibre of competitions faced, Multiplier is the horse I should have demoted. I entered a pair of progressive WPS bets on my 2 longshots (1-3-6 units WPS). Retaining Cloud as one of them would have given a nice win, and it would have joined in my Exacta key (5-10-2 / 5-10-2-4). An instructive wagering post-mortem, for me! Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
05-20-2017, 10:35 PM | #16 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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way to go Richie
You always were deadly in the Preakness.
Good Pimlico vibes must be in your aura. Remember Brooks Me and you heading down to meet Shoeless and Pino at Pimlico?. Here is the chart Indeed Cloud sat 3rd just behind Always and Empire Good matching |
05-21-2017, 11:50 AM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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Lightly raced horses
For many years I did not wager on races with lightly raced horses. The problems associated with that became especially apparent in yesterday's Preakness. You don't have a line that makes the horse competitive! And that defeats all the fancy compounded factors and adjustments in RDSS2 and other pace and speed based programs.
You have to project and understand the context of the race you are handicapping with younger lightly raced horses. I made a single wager in the Preakness. A win bet on Cloud Connecting: Why? 1. The horse was the most lightly raced in the field with 3 lifetime starts 2. After breaking his maiden first out, his connections thought enough to run him in the Gotham in his second start and the Wood Memorial in his third. These races are against the best 3yos in New York. 3. Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup races are the stages that make trainers' reputations. While it may happen occasionally, with all the expenses associated with shipping and running, unless the owner has more money than sense, they don't run horses in these races for the box seats. When you couple that with a younger trainer who has really started to make a name for himself in the last few years. He is up and coming and wants to get some more wealthy owners and their top class racing stock into his barn. I seriously doubted he would go into this race and embarrass himself or his owner. 3. We knew what the other entrants were. Their pps showed what they could do in the Derby preps and the Derby itself. My opinion is that this is not a particularly good crop. 4. The horse had shown route speed but appeared either too inexperienced or not fit enough to carry that speed all the way to the wire. With 6 weeks to train and work, he would be a much sharper horse for the Preakness. He also showed he would pass horses. 5. There did not appear to be any quality sustained horses in the field. Final fractions in 9f races ranged mostly from 50 to 52.6 fps. The high end is Presser energy. So a horse that could stay in contact with the leaders had a very good opportunity to slip by at the end. Those that had 52.5 to 53 fps got them against slow early paces or high fast variant races. My only question was how much would Cloud Connecting improve? And because you had to make non-numerical decisions, those that rely strictly on numbers would not get this horse. He was an unknown and therefore discounted ergo the price! |
05-21-2017, 12:14 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Big Congrats Mark and Richie! Great score & pick.
Mitch 44 Last edited by Mitch44; 05-21-2017 at 12:17 PM. |
05-21-2017, 12:28 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I looked at the # 2 and like Bill V. I tossed him because in his last and first start he decelerates so much. I didn't think he could chase the speed and hold up. I suppose he has learned to rate more rather than be so speed crazy.
I also was surprised at the speed shown by the 5 horse and how well he held up for place. These are the unknowns one has to deal with in playing 3 yr. olds this early in the year. Mitch44 |
05-23-2017, 04:06 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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My old Synthesis program had in order #5 #2 #6 #4...since I bet World Approval in the race before I didn't bet the Preakness
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