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Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion Phase III/MPH, Synergism, Energy, Kgen, Entropy, Thoromation, Quad-Rater, PaceLauncher, Synthesis, Validator, Val4, Speculator, etc ...

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Old 09-06-2017, 07:48 PM   #11
Bill V.
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4 6

I picked the wrong maiden winner
The 4 overtakes the 1. The 6 comes up late but not in time

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Old 09-06-2017, 08:00 PM   #12
ray lopez
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I did not bet the 6 because it was 9-5...
I've noticed the differences of trackmaster pp .exe files with the HDW .drf jcapper files
CPR/ Total Pace Rating readouts.
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:19 PM   #13
Bill V.
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Mitch and Ray

Mitch, The early late difference figures are always calculated early minus late
Wing gets a + number because its EP is greater than its LP
The winner Dream gets a - number because its EP is less than it's Late

Ray you get 2.7
I am using Trackmaster and Entropy I get 2.8
It's just a rounding up or down issue If you look at the horse 2 It gets 3.15
but actually, it's 3.10

RDSS gets different number because RDSS includes a track variant
but the numbers are similar early relative to late
Early - Late

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Old 09-06-2017, 08:38 PM   #14
Mitch44
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Bill:


Its a - 3.1 not a + 3.1 as per PMTR, I have never seen them reversed like that in any program . And in RDSS it would be a -3.1


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Last edited by Mitch44; 09-06-2017 at 08:44 PM.
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Old 09-06-2017, 09:26 PM   #15
Bill V.
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have to disagree

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Bill:


Its a - 3.1 not a + 3.1 as per PMTR, I have never seen them reversed like that in any program . And in RDSS it would be a -3.1


Mitch44
Mitch , I have to sort of disagree, The Early Late difference numbers are always shown as Early minus Late
In every program that calculates Phase 1 including RDSS.

However you are correct, It's reversed in the book, In the examples in my copy of Pace Makes The Race ( original edition ) The numbers are shown
Late minus Early

If you have your copy you can check this out, Look at page 346 - Advanced Concepts

Mine reads as follows
Code:
                   EPR  FFR   TPR    Diff    %Early 
 Lans              93    86   179    -7.0      51.95   
 High              94    83   177    -11.0     53.11
 Billy             89    87   175     -2.0     50.86
 Holly             93.5  79   172.5  -14.5     54.21
Late pace minus early pace


In all programs, it is reversed
So Ray's program is fine, he gets slightly different numbers based on the date he uses and the algorithms and how his computer rounds up or down

Here are 3 programs all using the same data file which was generated by RDSS into an RAC file.


Horse 5
RDSS

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Entropy

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KGEN

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EXDC/Thoromation

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Old 09-07-2017, 07:13 AM   #16
Mitch44
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The rounding off is a minor issue but an imprecise one that with computers shouldn't exist.


I'm well aware of the + & - procedure in PMTR and have the original book which is what I was referring to. In RDSS it shows the difference but no + or -. The objective here is to determine if the horse's deceleration is decreasing and where that takes place, particularity in anything that measuring deceleration. ( Factor or program) In RDSS the measurement is correct and the sticks basically show if a horse is E or S and by how much. Which is fine but it sort of hides deceleration without the + or -.


Any particular factor or readout is worthless if not put in context. I always view them as to how a horse achieved it. Perhaps that's why I have an understanding of deceleration. Either way I'm adaptable and can overcome but glad to have the opportunity to begin at the start which conceptually has propelled me forward.
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Old 09-07-2017, 08:16 AM   #17
Bill V.
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Ted

Hi Mitch,
I suppose Ted could add a little + or - marking on the Early Late
graph if he wanted to, Instead he chose to use a color code Red= Early + Plus
Blue = Late -Neg

Doc used arrows and he did use the plus and minus markings

It has been mentioned often here and in the RDSS documents
Red is early Blue is late

As far as rounding and the accuracy of the numbers.
is it really that far off, Yes I suppose it is but in context to what Doc wanted its hardly worth thinking about.

Ted actually makes this an improvement over what Doc had in Validator
Doc just showed the total and little markings of the difference between the EPR and LPR, Doc was not concerned with precise numbers, He looked for a visual method of the horses ratings and used little markings on the bottom
EX, VL, ML, E and ME, VE, XE or Extream, Very, Medium or Even. Early or Late

This screenshot is from Follow up 81 about the derby that year
In every follow-up from 70 till 88 you will see many examples of this graph
Doc said it was one of the only things he would model.


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Old 09-07-2017, 09:12 AM   #18
Mitch44
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Personally I like the red and blue sticks for running styles and an indication if a horse can rate etc. but its not helpful for deceleration. On the TPR screen I would like to see the + or- of the 3rd FR as in PMTR, not how much it is early such as + 16. so deceleration is shown. Actually I do it in my head and specifically make note of it to help in the elimination of horses. Anytime a horse can be thrown out it places one in a better position to succeed.


I'm flexible and adapt to overcome as far as proven techniques and RDSS. BTW my definition of flexible is you have to have a brain like jello. ha ha ha Have a great day Bill.


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Old 09-07-2017, 09:38 PM   #19
papajohn3times
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dcl??

Hi Mitch
I have been following your betting advice by starting small and I am now up to 3% of my bank,using Kelly criterion I have been doing quite well.
I still need to WAGERCAP better. It kinda brings me down for a short while when I spend time handicapping and one of my 2 win bets goes to 4/5 or so and it wins
My question is,could you explain deceleration more? I am having trouble understanding the graph's from the follow up that Bill showed. I don't really understand the red and blue lines and how they are a measure of dcl
thanks again
PapaJohn
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Old 09-08-2017, 06:04 AM   #20
Mitch44
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Hi papajohn3yimes,


Happy your doing well with your betting. I'm not a wager-cap bettor per say but I do look for overlays. I tend to stick with my two best horses as keys in my betting. I do include my 3rd choice if its going off at very good odds. I understand your point with those very short odds top picks. A valid question always is how can I make money out of this race? I don't like spending 60 or 70% of a bet on such horses, the risk reward is just pitiful. There are 3 options: 1. pass on the very low odds horse and play the 2nd choice and the 3rd choice if your getting good odds such as 8-1( smaller bet in any race.) 2. look at the Ex, payoffs and ask is there a good ex. payoff with the favorite and one of my other top 4 contenders.(after 5, counting the fav your just guessing). Again eliminate those 8 & $10 ridiculous low payoffs. The public goes overboard on the top two horses and thus hammer those Ex, combinations and most the time they fail to run 1 2. There are terrific Ex, payoffs such as 25 or $35 bucks with the very low odds favorite. and # 3. the same with the DD if you have a DD play. This EX or DD shouldn't be forced but played with viable contenders. Many times these very low odds horses are just the best horse and they win. If it is the best horse why try to beat it? Do what you can with it or pass the horse, I wouldn't pass the race and would still bet my 40% on the 2nd best horse. Finally don't bet more than your 60% for your low odds horse on a DD or EX. If your bet is $10 per race than those EX. or DD should only be $6 or $1 DD or EX, , If not than once again your over extending your capital on a low paying favorite and your better off skipping the bet completely. Start wit $10 per race and make larger bets with money won. If you can't do that than you need to find out your problem in contenders or pace line.


The "Doc" loved visual aids because certain people understand things better with them. In teaching different people learn in different ways so that is why he included many visual aids. The very best teaching aid is by actually doing it.


The red and blue sticks on the TPR screen are a visual aid to show how fast or late a horse is and it indicates its running style or ESP. Red indicates an E horse ( E, EP & P) and Blue a S (SP,S & L) ESP. The longer the stick the more E or S the horse is and the shorter the more balance the horse is.


Now here is where the naysayers will enter. These sticks do not necessarily indicate deceleration. As a general rule the larger these sticks are the more deceleration takes place. The key word here is GENERALLY!!! The more class a horse has the longer it can hold its speed so these sticks are deceptive in measuring deceleration. Deceleration is best measured throughout the race such as how does it achieve its 2nd & 3rd FR. & by different compounded factors. Take two E horses that both run very early with large red sticks that are exactly the same. One runs a 3rd Fr of 70 and the other a 76. , well the 76 ran a better 3rd FR and decelerated the least and is the better horse. In the original PMTR book they may have been given a -20 & a -26 to indicate that deceleration. The red or blue sticks don't show this. One can see this by analysis of the differences on the FPS screen or the TPR screen by comparing 3rd FR's. Incidentally by tracks and distances there are parameters that can be obtained where horses can't win and can be eliminated but put in context of the other horses in the race.(matchup) is better. Very large red or blue sticks of a horse should be investigated because they also indicate an unbalanced horse and they do tend be at a disadvantage , not that they can't win but balanced horses are better.


Sorry this stuff is complicated and hard to explain in just a few words.
Lastly lets sum of deceleration. The example I gave above is just one of several ways to measure deceleration. A more comprehensive approach would be to measure deceleration by several ways and more effective. This is done for you with V/DC. I comprehend that factor 100% but over 90% don't. You don't have to understand it , just incorporate it in your handicapping. Drive the dam car and being a mechanic isn't required. You don't have to understand V/DC to use it, it'll up your game.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 09-08-2017 at 06:22 AM.
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