A Lesson Well Learned - Pace and Cap

partsnut · 11-18-2008, 01:22 PM

After accumulating 45 winners out of 121 races at the Meadowlandswhich amounts to a touch better then 37%. One card was cancelled where I had the winner in the 1st contest race.This race was dis-allowed because the other 2 races were cancelled.This was in accordance to the contest rules.I realized by the money I accumulated, that my ROI was not as high as I would want it to be.So it told me, as I already knew, that betting favorites is not the best way to travel. This might have been due to a multitude of scratches which forced many low priced payoffs.The lesson to be learned here is not how many winners you can get (with the exception of this particular contest) but how much money you end up making. In real time, prudent and versed players will only bet value races they can win. Your hit ratio will be less but your profit will be higher.Your run-outs for the most part will be higher as well. So discipline and patience is the first order of the day.Randy Giles of PaceAppraiser has a good basic guideline pertaining to betting.
E, EP = 5/2 odds or better at post time.
P = 4-1 odds or better at post time.
PC,C = 5-1 odds or better at post time.
This is the basic guideline but in certain situations you might look for even higher odds.
If you can't get the value, Pass the race.
This game is all about the money.

Rverge · 11-18-2008, 04:58 PM

couldn't have said any better Parts. how true!

Vinnie · 11-19-2008, 08:26 AM

Parts:

A superb post. I need to read such things at times because the Lord only knows that my biggest problem that I encounter when I am struggling at the oval often enough is me "myself".

Once again, excellent post.

Vinnie

partsnut · 11-19-2008, 09:00 AM

Thanks Reverge and Vinny for the kind words.

Most of us are good handicappers. We should use this knowledge to our best advantage with a disciplined method and solid betting plan. Learn to have patience.
Wait for the races that offer you opportunity and where you find a pace advantage. It's just like shopping for a new home or playing the stock market. Recognize the value and buy at the best price. It's a buyers market.

11-18-2008, 01:22 PM	#1
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	A Lesson Well Learned After accumulating 45 winners out of 121 races at the Meadowlandswhich amounts to a touch better then 37%. One card was cancelled where I had the winner in the 1st contest race.This race was dis-allowed because the other 2 races were cancelled.This was in accordance to the contest rules.I realized by the money I accumulated, that my ROI was not as high as I would want it to be.So it told me, as I already knew, that betting favorites is not the best way to travel. This might have been due to a multitude of scratches which forced many low priced payoffs.The lesson to be learned here is not how many winners you can get (with the exception of this particular contest) but how much money you end up making. In real time, prudent and versed players will only bet value races they can win. Your hit ratio will be less but your profit will be higher.Your run-outs for the most part will be higher as well. So discipline and patience is the first order of the day.Randy Giles of PaceAppraiser has a good basic guideline pertaining to betting. E, EP = 5/2 odds or better at post time. P = 4-1 odds or better at post time. PC,C = 5-1 odds or better at post time. This is the basic guideline but in certain situations you might look for even higher odds. If you can't get the value, Pass the race. This game is all about the money. Last edited by partsnut; 11-18-2008 at 01:27 PM.

11-18-2008, 04:58 PM	#2
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	couldn't have said any better Parts. how true! __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.

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11-19-2008, 08:26 AM	#3
Vinnie Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 223	Parts: A superb post. I need to read such things at times because the Lord only knows that my biggest problem that I encounter when I am struggling at the oval often enough is me "myself". Once again, excellent post. Vinnie

11-19-2008, 09:00 AM	#4
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	Thanks Reverge and Vinny for the kind words. Most of us are good handicappers. We should use this knowledge to our best advantage with a disciplined method and solid betting plan. Learn to have patience. Wait for the races that offer you opportunity and where you find a pace advantage. It's just like shopping for a new home or playing the stock market. Recognize the value and buy at the best price. It's a buyers market.